Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
236 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY...
...SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Rain showers with isolated thunderstorms have been
steadily moving across north central Idaho and western Montana
this afternoon. With increasingly unstable conditions expected to
continue through later this evening, further development of
thunderstorms is likely to occur. The best chances will exist
across west central and southwest Montana, as well as most of
Clearwater and Lemhi counties in Idaho. The main concerns continue
to be heavy bursts of rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning. Given
how much cloud cover has been hanging around the region throughout
the day, this may inhibit storms from growing too large or
becoming stronger, but the safest course of action would be to plan
for stormy, quickly-changing conditions.

An unusually cool low pressure system continues to be projected
over the Northern Rockies Sunday and Monday, with widespread
rainfall, very cool daytime temperatures, and even high-elevation
snowfall. Model guidance has had trouble characterizing the path
of the low pressure, as well as depicting the areas to receive the
most precipitation. The latest model runs have favored west
central Montana and portions of southwest Montana for
precipitation amounts, with storm totals in the 1 to 2 inch
range. Snow levels continue to be very low for July during this
event, ranging from 6500 feet along the Continental Divide to 7500
feet along the northern Idaho/Montana border. Hypothermia threat
and low visibility will make for poor outdoor conditions,
particularly at high elevations. Daytime temperatures for Sunday
will be 20+ degrees below the seasonal average.

Scattered showers will continue into Tuesday as an additional
disturbance passes through, with pleasant but still below normal
temperatures. Forecast models lend to moderate confidence that the
middle and latter part of next week will trend toward seasonably
warm temperatures and drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Thunderstorms and heavy bursts of rainfall are likely
through 10/0300Z for KMSO, KBTM, and KSMN today, with isolated
thunder embedded within showers likely for KGPI. Rain will persist
overnight for most locations, particularly across southwest
Montana and central Idaho. By Sunday morning, more widespread,
stratiform rainfall is expected, with high elevation snow causing
persistent, obscured terrain. Ceiling and visibility reductions
will be commonplace throughout the day Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
544 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

MTZ007-100015-
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION MT-
544 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DEER LODGE...EAST
CENTRAL GRANITE AND SOUTH CENTRAL POWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 542 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WEST VALLEY...OR NEAR ANACONDA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEER LODGE...ANACONDA...WEST VALLEY...GALEN...WARM SPRINGS...
RACETRACK AND LOST CREEK. I-90 NEAR DEER LODGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER
IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4608 11303 4623 11317 4655 11260 4638 11247
      4614 11279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 235DEG 40KT 4620 11301

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
445 PM PDT SAT JUL 9 2016

IDZ006>008-100030-
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-
LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION ID-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION ID-
445 PM PDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM PDT...

AT 443 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTH OF WINCHESTER TO 17 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NEW MEADOWS. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANGEVILLE...KOOSKIA...RIGGINS...WHITE BIRD...EAST KAMIAH...
COTTONWOOD...STITES...KEUTERVILLE...BURGDORF...HARPSTER...
COPPERVILLE...WINONA...CANFIELD...POLLOCK...SLATE CREEK...FENN...
RIGGINS HOT SPRING AND LUCILE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4599 11665 4604 11663 4600 11654 4609 11651
      4617 11627 4615 11619 4621 11615 4621 11604
      4627 11597 4519 11581 4522 11598 4513 11614
      4511 11630 4527 11634 4527 11659 4540 11662
      4562 11646 4575 11654 4580 11668 4599 11672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 251DEG 28KT 4596 11668 4515 11655

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
552 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

MTZ002-100045-
WEST GLACIER REGION MT-
552 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL FLATHEAD COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

AT 550 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST GLACIER TO LOGAN PASS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST GLACIER...LAKE MCDONALD...APGAR AND CORAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR ROCKFALL...ESPECIALLY ON THE GOING TO
THE SUN ROAD WEST OF LOGAN PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 4879 11377 4872 11370 4870 11371 4869 11374
      4867 11373 4865 11375 4862 11375 4859 11366
      4860 11363 4858 11361 4837 11398 4850 11422
      4882 11377
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 225DEG 10KT 4855 11395