Lake Wind Advisory 9, NWS Missoula, MT

591 
WWUS75 KMSO 031735
NPWMSO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1135 AM MDT WED AUG 3 2016

MTZ003-031845-
/O.EXP.KMSO.LW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-160803T1800Z/
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-
1135 AM MDT WED AUG 3 2016

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON MDT TODAY FOR FLATHEAD
LAKE...


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...A strong cold front will move across north central
Idaho and western Montana late this afternoon and evening. For
most areas, the front will produce strong west winds, but no precipitation.
The strongest winds should be from the Bitterroots eastward to the
Continental Divide where winds should increase to 25 to 30 mph
with gusts 40 to 50 mph this evening. The biggest concern is any
ongoing and emerging wildfires...and thus why we have issued a red
flag warning for many areas. However, the wind should also produce
some very localized blowing dust, may break small limbs off trees, and
may impact higher profile vehicles along area roads. Although not
as strong...the wind should increase sufficiently to support a
Flathead Lake wind advisory as well into this evening. Only in far
northwest Montana will there be enough moisture for a few
showers...from roughly the Yaak to Glacier National Park.

Cool air at the center of a low pressure system will shift east across
the region tonight with some snow on the highest peaks in Glacier
Park by morning, roughly above 8000 feet. Compared to Tuesday,
temperatures should be 20 to 25 degrees colder in Glacier Park
Wednesday. Other locations in north central Idaho and western
Montana will be dry, but cooler.

Temperatures quickly begin to warm again by Thursday afternoon as
a ridge builds over the Northern Rockies, with near normal
readings for this time of year. Ridges and mid-slopes remain warm
and dry overnight. By Friday, further strengthening of the high
pressure will lead to above normal temperatures, with valleys
highs in the 90s.

Friday night into Saturday morning, models are beginning to show
increasing moisture over the area as a system embedded in
southwest flow transports monsoonal moisture northward. This could
lead to some overnight thunderstorms, in southwest Montana
especially. Despite some mid-level moisture moving in, storms
could be mostly dry and high-based initially. Temperatures remain
near average Saturday and Sunday with continued showers as the
main low approaches from the west.

Model solutions diverge early next week, leading to low confidence
past Monday, but the forecast hints at a cool down with some
additional precipitation as a longwave trough moves over the
Western U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...A strong summer cold front will lead to increased
winds at TAF sites this afternoon and evening with gust of 30-35
kt likely late this afternoon through the evening. Breezy winds
will continue into Wednesday but less intense than experienced
along the front. The front will be relatively dry with only a few
showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday for the Glacier
Park area where terrain obscurations may occur. Smoke from local
wildfires will be noticeable but impacts should remain limited to
local airports such Hamilton.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight Bitterroot...
     Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead...East Lolo.

     Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight Salish and Kootenai
     Reservation...West Lolo.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Flathead Lake
     in the Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening Clearwater/Nez
     Perce...until 9 PM PDT this evening Palouse/Hells Canyon.

&&