Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
310 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Wednesday)...A few more showers and some
thunderstorms will move across the forecast area this evening in a
moist atmospheric environment across the Southern Appalachian
region. The main focus for lift is a weak short wave pressing
slowly southeast across the Central Appalachians. Would expect most
of the development to subside through the evening with loss of
heating. There likely will be some patchy fog development again
late tonight as the near surface air mass becomes saturated. Wednesday
should be a little drier with less coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. However, a weak short wave is progged to move across
Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee during the day possibly
bringing a period of convection to this region as well as along the
mountains on the North Carolina border. The chance for rain will
remain quite limited elsewhere. As usual, the temperature forecast
will remain a few degrees above normal over most of the forecast
area.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Tuesday)...At least some
mention for showers and storms will continue each day in the long-
term forecast. Wednesday night into Friday a weak upper level low
will move across the Ohio River Valley into the Southern
Appalchians along the periphery of the Central U.S. ridge. PW
values will range from 1.6-2.0 inches with the higher end in the
90th percentile for early August. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms will develop by Thursday afternoon with the weak lift from
the approaching upper level low. Expect showers and storms will
continue into the evening and overnight hours with the weak
synoptic lift providing for a little more than just the normal
diurnal activity. On Friday, the upper level low will shift to the
southeast with better chances for showers and storms across the
mountains. SBCAPE values remain under 2000 J/Kg with weak winds
aloft and do not expect any strong to severe storms.

A more robust upper level trough will pass to the north across the
Great Lakes into the Northeastern U.S. Friday into Saturday. A cold
front associated with this trough will move across the Ohio River
Valley on Saturday as the upper level support begins to lift away.
Scattered afternoon showers and storms will continue to be possible
Saturday afternoon with the surface boundary still to the north. The
GFS and ECMWF indicate that the front will move into the area
Saturday night into Sunday as surface high pressure moves across the
Great Lakes into the Northeastern U.S. Drier air will move in with
lowering precip. chances on Sunday. Best chances will be across
southern portions of the forecast area where the front will still
linger. As is typical with early August, the drier air will not last
for long with higher dewpoint values move back in late in the
forecast cycle with higher rain chances expected by Tuesday.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  94  73  94 /  20  20  20  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  91  72  91 /  20  10  20  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  91  72  92 /  20  10  20  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  87  68  86 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
241 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-031845-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
241 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 /141 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE-QUARTER
MILE OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

TNZ068-071-085-086-022000-
NW BLOUNT TN-LOUDON TN-NORTHWEST MONROE TN-MCMINN TN-
315 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 313 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SWEETWATER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SWEETWATER...LOUDON...MADISONVILLE...ENGLEWOOD...VONORE...
GREENBACK...TELLICO PLAINS...PHILADELPHIA...FORT LOUDON S.P....
MOUNT VERNON...CITICO BEACH...TALASSEE...TARIFFVILLE...
MCGEE CARSON PENINSULA AND TELLICO VILLAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 8456 3573 8433 3557 8400 3526 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 324DEG 10KT 3559 8445

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
416 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

TNZ099-100-022100-
BRADLEY TN-HAMILTON TN-
416 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BRADLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 416 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HARRISON...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHATTANOOGA...MOVING SOUTH AT 25
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHATTANOOGA...LAKESITE...RIDGESIDE...HARRISON...SOUTH CLEVELAND...
COLLEGEDALE...MCDONALD...APISON...OOLTEWAH...MIDDLE VALLEY...EAST
BRAINERD...EAST RIDGE...HARRISON BAY S.P. AND RED CLAY S.P..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8521 3521 8499 3499 8494 3499 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 355DEG 21KT 3513 8510

DH