Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
330 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (This Afternoon through Thursday)...

Seeing a few scattered showers and storms on radar this afternoon.
Most of the activity has been limited to the higher elevation along
the TN/NC line and the Cumberland Plateau where the terrain has
been able to provide some additional lift. Visible satellite
imagery indicates some cumulus growth across the southern valley
and plateau and expect scattered showers and storms will increase
there over the next hour or so. This new activity will slowly push
to the northeast with around a 20-50 percent chance for showers and
storms across the area through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Convective activity should decrease after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper
air analysis indicates a closed upper low across the Desert
Southwest with a shortwave across the Lower Mississippi River
Valley with westerly to southwesterly flow aloft across the area
ahead of these approaching waves. PW values will continue to
increase tomorrow with continued westerly to southwesterly flow. A
cold front will sag south across the Ohio River Valley tomorrow as
a closed low progresses across the Great Lakes region. Closer to
home, PW values will be up into the 1.6-1.8 inch range, which is
into the 95-99th percentile for early June. In addition, a weak
shortwave trough will move across the area during the day.
Therefore, expect afternoon showers and storms will be more
widespread tomorrow afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...

Weak cold front still set to be across the area Thursday night
into Friday. Warm and moist airmass combined with presence of front
will lead to chances of showers and thunderstorms, a few of which
could be strong. Still expecting Thursday afternoon activity to
decrease overnight as it is associated with diurnal activity.
Chance pops in place Friday morning then high-end and likely in
place during the afternoon hours as we become increasingly
unstable. Friday overnight activity should decrease through the
night, as with Thursday's, due to its diurnal nature.

The weekend looks pretty wet. Moisture further increases from out of
the southwest on Saturday as an upper level trough and associated
front begin to swing down across the region. Will say that the first
half of Saturday looks drier than Saturday night and Sunday. With
that said, still chance and likely pops in place Saturday morning.
Likely pops in place area-wide Saturday night and all of Sunday.
This is due to better upper level support moving over the area with
the arrival of the trough axis, as well as deep moisture. Soundings
look very saturated this weekend with a near 13k foot warm cloud
layer depth with pw values near the 90th percentile. These features
along with long skinny capes are suggestive of the potential for
heavy rainfall. The best chances for the heavier rains look to be
from Saturday night through Sunday. Will continue to monitor with
future model runs. Models in general agreement that the front should
exit to our southeast sometime Sunday night/Monday morning. For the
rest of the extended, cooler and drier air will move in from the
northwest as the eastern U.S remains in a trough. After the frontal
passage, temperatures will return to normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  88  68  88 /  20  50  40  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  87  67  86 /  20  60  50  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  87  65  85 /  20  70  50  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  83  64  82 /  30  60  50  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

MA/SR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
345 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-021945-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
345 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 /245 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING ADDITIONAL...POSSIBLY STRONG...THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SECOND AND PERHAPS MORE VIGOROUS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR
DURING SUNDAY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
358 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

NCZ060-012045-
CHEROKEE-
358 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY...

AT 358 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ANDREWS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDREWS AND TOPTON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3521 8396 3522 8396 3523 8389 3526 8384
      3526 8380 3524 8374 3526 8371 3524 8369
      3520 8373 3519 8371 3518 8373 3516 8374
      3516 8377 3514 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 207DEG 10KT 3523 8376

AMP.23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TNZ098-012045-
MARION TN-
300 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM CDT...

AT 259 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH PITTSBURG...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JASPER... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JASPER...SOUTH PITTSBURG...KIMBALL...ORME AND HALETOWN (GUILD).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3512 8586 3522 8581 3507 8544 3498 8558
      3499 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 219DEG 17KT 3496 8583

JW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
409 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

TNZ012-035-012100-
SCOTT TN-MORGAN TN-
409 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SCOTT AND CENTRAL
MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 409 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARTBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WARTBURG...SLICK ROCK AND PETROS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 8453 3619 8440 3617 8440 3617 8444
      3614 8445 3613 8443 3611 8442 3609 8438
      3595 8470 3600 8472 3606 8479 3609 8480
      3609 8483 3610 8484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 233DEG 24KT 3606 8471

AMP.23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
421 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

TNZ101-102-012100-
WEST POLK TN-EAST POLK TN-
421 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

AT 421 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILDWOOD LAKE...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF
BENTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BIG FROG MOUNTAIN...PARKSVILLE AND CONASAUGA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8478 3506 8475 3508 8474 3509 8474
      3517 8470 3506 8445 3499 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 207DEG 9KT 3498 8470

AMP.23