Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ACROSS W TN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT OF THE FRONT
AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FOR E TN...SW
VA AND SW NC. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WANE IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE BULK OF RAINFALL FOR THE AREA
WILL OCCUR MONDAY.

TOMORROW THE FRONT WILL MEANDER INTO THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL. WE NEED THE RAINFALL JUST NOT ALL AT ONCE. PW VALUES FOR
MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE 1 INCH TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
RIVER FLOODING ISSUES BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW ROADWAYS IMPACTED BY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... ANOTHER EVENING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SITUATED NEAR US. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME PLACES
WILL HAVE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH (WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH) AND SOME INCREASING SHEAR AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND HEATING, HOWEVER,
LOOK RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH WILL LIKELY HINDER THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THAT BEING SAID...ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM IN OUR AREA COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL
AND WIND BEING THE MAIN THREATS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND TAKES WITH IT MOST OF
THE RAIN CHANCES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL
CHANCES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE WILL BE MORE SPORADIC WITH
LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THIS FIRST
FRONT AND BE BELOW NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM...THEY GENERALLY DEPICT A
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY WITH THIS SECONDARY FRONT, BUT CURRENT
MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL MUCH MORE LIMITED LEADING TO
ONLY CHANCE RAINFALL AND LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS. BEHIND THIS SECONDARY
FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHTED SLATED TO BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THIS FORECAST. WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ALONG
THE FRONT, WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE SMALL CHANCE TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IN THE TOPS OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT...
WILL LEAVE MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
FLIRTING WITH BELOW FREEZING.

AFTER THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED
OFF TO OUR EAST A RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING US TO
QUICKLY WARM UP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AREA GETTING BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND MANY PLACES REACHING 80
DEGREES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  78  60  72 /  50  80  70  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  75  58  71 /  50  70  70  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  74  59  70 /  50  80  60  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  74  57  70 /  50  70  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

AC/ABM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-021915-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
304 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 /204 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SOME STORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS...SOME HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TNZ100>102-011945-
BRADLEY TN-WEST POLK TN-EAST POLK TN-
304 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN POLK AND SOUTHEASTERN
BRADLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 303 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WILDWOOD LAKE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF CLEVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...BENTON...EAST CLEVELAND...WILDWOOD LAKE...SOUTH CLEVELAND...
PARKSVILLE...BIG FROG MOUNTAIN...GAP SPRINGS...CONASAUGA AND WATERVILLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3499 8489 3514 8493 3525 8465 3499 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 258DEG 22KT 3507 8482

JW

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