Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
314 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS PRODUCING
SOME CONVECTION. COLD AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING IN SOME SMALL HAIL IN
ISOLATED SPOTS. GRIDDED DATABASE HAS A DECREASING POP TREND TONIGHT
WITH A NICE DRY DAY FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY. AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG SUNSHINE SHOULD BE THE ORDER OF THE
DAY. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH THE BEST
LIFT. PW VALUES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN THE PAST DAYS BUT WILL
STILL BE AROUND THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-MARCH.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT MENTION FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. WITH MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY AND
MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING WITH JUST
SHOWERS MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH PW VALUES DROPPING DOWN BELOW HALF AN INCH ON WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH JUST NORTH OF THE COAST.
THEREFORE...REMOVED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION.

A GOOD BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT MOVING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE POPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL
BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
DISAGREEMENT COMES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE CLOSED LOW. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS
SOLUTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW SREF MEMBERS. DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH PW VALUES BELOW HALF AN INCH FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL...HAVE SIDED MORE WITH
THE DRIER SOLUTIONS AND REDUCED POPS TO JUST SMALL SLIGHT CHANCES
MENTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE MORE
ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A MORE ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION TO SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             50  81  54  75 /  10   0  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  79  56  74 /  30   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       50  78  56  74 /  20   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              50  73  54  72 /  60   0  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

MA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1021 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-151430-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
1021 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 /921 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF A QUARTER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

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