Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.  AIR MASS IS ONLY MINIMALLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE LESS THAN 300
J/KG AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LESS THAN EXPECTED.  WITH A STRONG
850 MB JET OF 60+ KTS MOVING IN...WE HAVE GOOD SPEED SHEAR ACROSS
THE AREA WITH STRONG FORCING.  THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A STRONG
OR SEVERE STORM THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STRONG WIND ALOFT WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE VALLEY AND WINDY...GUSTY
CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NOON FOR MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION
TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. A FEW POCKET OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE MINIMAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.  OTHERWISE...COLD AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE EXTENDED FORECAST
INCLUDES A COUPLE OF HEALTHY SHORT WAVE FEATURES WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THESE ARE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS AND BEST LIFT
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION TIMING BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST FEATURE MOVES IN
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND
THE WAVE FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES NOT ENTIRELY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BUT MUCH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE MAINLY RAIN.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AT
THIS TIME SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. THE
THIRD SHOT AT PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEPENING WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALONG WITH A MAJOR LEAGUE RIDGE FORMING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. THIS CONFIGURATION ALLOWS FOR RETURNING WARM AND MOIST AIR
WHICH MAY GENERATE A SHOWER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH DURING THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  47  35  54 /  80  10   0  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  33  43  31  50 /  90  10  10  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  43  31  50 /  80  10  10  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  39  28  50 /  80  20  10  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

MJB/ABM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-021000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-
LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-
NORTHWEST MONROE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-
EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
303 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 /303 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WIND GUSTS. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING....ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET MAY RECEIVE
MINOR SNOW ACCUMUALTIONS AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW WITH UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE ABOVE 4000 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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