Small Craft Advisory 149, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
726 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 504 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

Today and tonight: A surface low, centered over northern Lower
Michigan this morning, will shift eastward, reaching the New England
states late tonight. The potent shortwave, cented over the U.P. this
morning will follow a similar path through the same time period. The
main issues today will be a quick burst of heavier snow this morning
in Marquette and Alger counties, which will impact the morning
commute. At this point, not expecting much more than an inch or two
of accumulation, but the timing will make travel hazardous. This
band is has developed on the east to northeasterly wind flowing
around the departing low pressure system. After this band slides
through, there will be a bit of a break in the precipitation across
the U.P. through most of the day as winds become southwesterly to
west-southwesterly ahead of an approaching strong cold front. This
would keep the best chance of lake effect snow over the tip of the
Keweenaw Peninsula during the afternoon hours and over the far
eastern U.P. Tonight, the cold front will slide across the U.P. from
west to east. Along and ahead of the cold front there will just
enough forcing and moisture to allow widespread light snow across
the area. Most areas will only see an inch or two of accumulation
with the frontal passage. The main exception will be in the west
wind favored snow belts along the western U.P. and through the
Keweenaw Peninsula. Those areas, especially in the higher terrain,
could see 3 to 4 inches of snow through the overnight hours.
Increased winds on CAA behing the cold front will also lead to
blowing snow along Lake Superior and especially for locations in the
Keweenaw Peninsula where heavy lake effect snow has fallen in the
past week. Otherwise, much colder air will filter in behind the low
pressure system with overnight lows dropping below zero over the
inland west with wind chill values dropping into the teens below
zero late tonight. The increased winds, gales to 35 knots on Lake
Superior late tonight, along with the colder temperatures over the
water will lead to heavy freezing spray over mainly western Lake
Superior as the pressure gradient tightens and gusty winds mix down
on CAA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 422 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

Main theme for the week will be on the arctic airmass arrival, which
will be accompanied by gusty winds and additional lake effect snow.
All of these elements coupled together translates into dangerous
wind chills with blowing and drifting snow.

Arctic frontal boundary will arrive Tue morning, which should push
early morning temps down to around zero to perhaps single digits
below zero prior to daybreak. Winds will be on the increase from the
west/northwest, and with recent low liquid equivalent snowfall,
expecting areas of blowing snow coupled with additional lake effect
snow. One wrinkle as to how organized lake effect bands develop will
be on the very shallow favored snow growth zone, which will be near
the surface. This may limit dendritic size and result in more ice
crystals that reduce visibilities considerably for portions of the
Keweenaw Peninsula Tue/Wed.

Further removed from the lakeshore late Tue skies may be able to
partially clear, allowing overnight lows to quickly radiate into the
single digits below zero. Winds will continue to be breezy and
produce wind chill values in a -10 to -20 degree range. Continued
lake effect bands are progged to persist for the Keweenaw Peninsula,
and expect snow ratios to increase, which will then easily allow
wind to quickly produce blowing/drifting snow.

By Wed the 500mb vort max will be positioned over James Bay,
continueing to send a few weak impulses along the southern axis of
the trough through the Upper Peninsula. This will maintain cold
temps thru Wed with highs remaining in the single digits above zero
and additional lake effect snow for the favored west/northwest flow
areas. Wed ngt into Thur the arctic airmass will begin to lift
northeast, with a slow rise to mid-level heights. This will result
in winds turning more northwesterly ahead of a weak surface ridge.
Lake effect snow will persist, and could see some better bands
developing as the DGZ begins to lift.

Focus then turns towards yet another system progged to arrive over
the upcoming weekend. The deep arctic trough will lift
north/northeast Thur ngt/Fri The longwave pattern transitioning into
a quasi-zonal setup, which will favor a progressive setup.
Operational guidance and ensembles continue to show good agreement
with a system entering the western CONUS early Fri, and quickly
moving into the Central Plains Fri eve with strong return flow
moisture on the backside of a surface ridge over the Ohio Valley.
This could set the stage for a robust winter system next weekend for
a portion of the Great Lakes region with another shot of cold air
arriving towards the second half of the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 725 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

Mainly MVFR cigs are expected this morning as low-level moisture
remains in place with low level troughing and moisture off Lake
Superior. A cold front moving through tonight will keep visibility
mainly in the MVFR with occasional IFR visibilities possible. Some
drying with westerly flow behind the trough should bring improvement
to VFR at IWD and SAW. However, lake moisture and upslope will keep
MVFR to IFR conditions at CMX, especially with any blowing snow that
develops. Expect a period of light snow associated with the arctic
front to drop conditions back to MVFR at IWD and SAW and down to IFR
at CMX.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 504 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

As low pressure shifts to the east into Southeat Ontario today, the
low level winds as high as 30 kts at times will back sharply from
the east to the northeast and then the west northwest. An arctic
cold front will then sweep across Lake Superior on tonight and
introduce bitterly cold air into the area. West northwest gales to
35-40 kts will then be likely across at least portions of Lake
Superior late tonight into Thursday. The previous gale watches over
the entire lake have now been upgraded to gale warnings. The
combination of waves building as hi as 10-14 feet at the end ofthe
fetch and the very cold air will result in periods of heavy freezing
spray from late tonight through Thursday as well leading to the
issuance of a heavy freezing spray warning for the western portion
of Lake Superior with the central and east likely needing a warning
late Tuesday through Thursday. Later in the week, winds will back to
the south on Friday between the departing high pressure ridge and
another low pressure system moving northeast toward the Great Lakes.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     LSZ264>267.

  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Tuesday to
     7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for LSZ162-263.

  Gale Warning from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Tuesday to 7 AM EST /6 AM
     CST/ Thursday for LSZ162-240>244-263.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Beachler
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-131015-
KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE-
GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
508 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016 /408 AM CST MON DEC 12 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR
WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS TO NEAR 20 BELOW
ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WAVES BUILDING AS HIGH AS 10 TO 14
FEET MAY ALSO CAUSE MINOR BEACH EROSION AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS NEAR THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW TO
UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ANY KNOWN
ROAD CONDITIONS TO THE MARQUETTE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THE PUBLIC
MAY PROVIDE REPORTS THROUGH OUR WEB PAGE...OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
PAGES...OR BY PHONE.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-131015-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND
PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI-
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI-
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI-
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI-
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI-
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING
KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI-
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI-
GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYALE NATIONAL PARK-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU
ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
508 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016 /408 AM CST MON DEC 12 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. SEE
THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND
OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

LMZ221-248-250-131015-
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI-
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-
508 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

BEACHLER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
944 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     SNOW             MUNISING                46.41N 86.66W
12/12/2016  M1.6 INCH        ALGER              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MUNISING /MNSM4/. THE
            DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 NW HARVEY             46.51N 87.38W
12/12/2016  M1.6 INCH        MARQUETTE          MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION 1 WNW HARVEY /MI-MQ-20/.
            THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0700 AM     SNOW             11 S GRAND MARAIS       46.51N 85.96W
12/12/2016  M1.5 INCH        ALGER              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION GRAND MARAIS 10S
            /GMSM4/. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS
            24 HOURS.

1000 AM     SNOW             7 E GARDEN              45.80N 86.40W
12/11/2016  M1.0 INCH        SCHOOLCRAFT        MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION PARENT BAY /PARM4/.

0100 PM     SNOW             4 NE NEGAUNEE           46.53N 87.55W
12/11/2016  M0.4 INCH        MARQUETTE          MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION NWS MARQUETTE /MQT/. THE
            DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 48 HOURS.

&&

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1017 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             3 NNE IRON MOUNTAIN     45.88N 88.04W
12/12/2016  M8.1 INCH        DICKINSON          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION IRON MOUTAIN 5N
            /IMNM4/. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS
            24 HOURS.

0900 AM     SNOW             AMASA                   46.23N 88.45W
12/12/2016  M7.0 INCH        IRON               MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION AMASA 1W /AMAM4/. THE
            DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0900 AM     SNOW             4 NW MENOMINEE          45.16N 87.69W
12/12/2016  M6.1 INCH        MENOMINEE          MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION 4 WNW MENOMINEE /MI-MM-8/.
            THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 S MANISTIQUE          45.95N 86.25W
12/12/2016  M6.0 INCH        SCHOOLCRAFT        MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MANISTIQUE WWTP
            /MTQM4/. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS
            24 HOURS.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 S CASPIAN             46.06N 88.63W
12/12/2016  M5.8 INCH        IRON               MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION 2 SSE STAMBAUGH
            /STMM4/. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS
            24 HOURS.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 SW GLADSTONE          45.84N 87.04W
12/12/2016  M5.1 INCH        DELTA              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION GLADSTONE /GLDM4/.
            THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 SSW BRAMPTON          45.88N 87.09W
12/12/2016  M4.5 INCH        DELTA              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION GLADSTONE 2NW
            /HRKM4/. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS
            24 HOURS.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 WNW IRONWOOD          46.47N 90.18W
12/12/2016  M4.5 INCH        GOGEBIC            MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION IRONWOOD WWTP
            /IRMM4/. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS
            24 HOURS.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 SSE PAINESDALE        47.03N 88.67W
12/12/2016  M4.5 INCH        HOUGHTON           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION PAINESDALE /PDLM4/.
            THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 NNE ARNOLD            46.07N 87.48W
12/12/2016  M4.0 INCH        MARQUETTE          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION 2 N ARNOLD /AROM4/.
            THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 SSW ALLOUEZ           47.28N 88.42W
12/12/2016  M4.0 INCH        HOUGHTON           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION KEARSARGE /KSGM4/.
            THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0930 AM     SNOW             2 SW BAGLEY             45.53N 87.62W
12/12/2016  M4.0 INCH        MENOMINEE          MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION 2 WSW BAGLEY /MI-MM-5/. THE
            DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0815 AM     SNOW             PAULDING                46.40N 89.18W
12/12/2016  M3.6 INCH        ONTONAGON          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION PAULDING /PDGM4/. THE
            DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0730 AM     SNOW             2 NE COOKS              45.94N 86.44W
12/12/2016  M3.4 INCH        SCHOOLCRAFT        MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION COOKS 2NE /CKSM4/.
            THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 NW GARDEN CORNERS     45.90N 86.55W
12/12/2016  M3.3 INCH        DELTA              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION GARDEN CORNERS
            /GDCM4/. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS
            24 HOURS.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 NW GARDEN CORNERS     45.90N 86.55W
12/12/2016  M3.3 INCH        DELTA              MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION GARDEN CORNERS /MI-DL-1/.
            THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 NE NEGAUNEE           46.53N 87.55W
12/12/2016  M2.9 INCH        MARQUETTE          MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION NWS MARQUETTE /MQT/. THE
            DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0600 AM     SNOW             6 NNW ISHPEMING         46.57N 87.69W
12/12/2016  M2.5 INCH        MARQUETTE          MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION 5 NNW ISHPEMING /MI-MQ-17/.
            THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 SSE HARVEY            46.47N 87.34W
12/12/2016  M2.5 INCH        MARQUETTE          MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MARQUETTE 6.5 SSE
            /MI-MQ-2/. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT
            WAS 24 HOURS.

0700 AM     SNOW             5 ESE CHASSELL          47.01N 88.43W
12/12/2016  M2.4 INCH        HOUGHTON           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION JACOBSVILLE /JCBM4/.
            THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 ESE THREE LAKES       46.55N 88.18W
12/12/2016  M2.4 INCH        BARAGA             MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MICHIGAMME 3WNW
            /MIEM4/. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS
            24 HOURS.

0700 AM     SNOW             6 E CHAMPION            46.50N 87.84W
12/12/2016  M2.0 INCH        MARQUETTE          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CLARKSBURG /CLKM4/.
            THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SE HERMAN             46.65N 88.33W
12/12/2016  M2.0 INCH        BARAGA             MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION HERMAN /HERM4/. THE
            DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

&&

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM