River Flood Advisory 2, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
448 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 446 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

00Z raobs/latest wv imagery and RAP analysis show the shrtwv
responsible for the heavy ra/svr storms yday evng exiting to the ne
along the most sgnft showers/TS. The associated cold fnt on the sw
flank of deepening lo pres moving into se Ontario has sank to the s
of all but the far scentral cwa. Despite some deep lyr qvector dvgc
in the wake of this disturbance, some showers/a few TS linger along
a line fm scentrl MN acrs nw WI into central Upr MI ahead of another
shrtwv aprchg fm the wsw and under axis of h85-7 fgen behind the
cold fnt and where mucapes up to 500j/kg and steeper mid lvl lapse
rates up to 7C/km linger per spc mesoanalysis/00Z MPX raob.
Farther to the nw, the 00Z INL raob shows a much drier sfc-h5 lyr,
but a good deal of hier clds linger in the mstr aoa h5 shown on that
raob and on the cyc side of the shrtwv supporting the lingering
showers.

Main fcst concerns in the short term wl be on pops today and then
cld/temp trends as the drier llvl air shown on the 00Z INL raob
grdly slides into the area.

Today...Incrsg deep lyr h85-3 qvector dvgc in the wake of stronger
shrtwv exiting to the ne with deeper convection is fcst to dominate
Upr MI, so expect the line of showers stretching fm scentral MN into
wcentrl Upr MI to diminish with time and probably by mid mrng as
they shift to the ese under axis of h85-7 fgen in the wake of the
departing sfc cold fnt. Plan to carry some sct showers thru mid mrng
mainly over the scentral. There wl be some gusty nw winds mainly
this mrng over the ne cwa in the wake of the departing/deepening sfc
lo pres, but these winds should diminish during the aftn as the pres
gradient weakens with the closer aprch of sfc hi pres toward the Upr
MS River Valley. The arrival of the drier llvl air depicted on the
00Z INL roab/larger scale subsidence/more acyc llvl flow should
result in clrg thru the day. Since h85 temps wl fall to only 6-8C by
00Z Wed, expect another relatively warm day with max temps in the
50s to as hi as the mid 60s over the se with the downslope NW flow.

Tngt...While there are hints some clds wl move into at least the wrn
cwa late as a weak shrtwv/lo pres trof aprch fm the w, lingering
llvl dry air/acyc flow most of the ngt wl maintain dry wx thru 12Z
Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 443 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

Nam shows a 500 mb shortwave over WY and another over the Canadian
prairies 12z Wed. Both of these shortwaves move east and help dig a
deep trough over the central U.S. on Thu and Thu night. Looks pretty
quiet for this forecast period, but could still see some lake effect
pcpn starting on Thu as colder air comes into the area and across
Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures fall to -3C to -5C on Thu and
with lake temperatures from 9C to 12C, this is enough lake-850 mb
delta-t for lake effect pcpn. Did add in some pops for this with low
chance pops in northwest and north lake effect pxpn belts for thu
and thu night. Did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the desert
sw with a deep trough over the central U.S. 12z Fri. This trough is
very deep with the GFS and broader with the ECMWF with 850 mb
temperatures down to -4C to -7C 12z Fri and this cold air remains
over Lake Superior through 12z Sat. A shortwave moves through Sat
night into Sun morning. A broad 500 mb ridge moves into the Rockies
with a trough over the ern U.S. 12z Mon. Temperatures look to be
below normal for the start of this forecast and then get to near
normal by the end of the forecast period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 125 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

Lingering low level moisture along a warm front will keep lower
ceilings and visibility in place through tonight. A stronger low
pressure system will lift northeastward into the area and could
bring around of showers into the TAF sites, although it looks like
heaviest rain has moved east of the TAF sites. Conditions should
remain in the IFR to LIFR range through late tonight at all the TAF
sites although expect dry air to move on gusty w-nw winds late
tonight into Tue morning allowing for conditions to quickly improve
to VFR by late morning/early afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 446 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

Cancelled previous gale warning in effect for the e half of Lake
Superior as lo pres exiting to the ne is not intensifying as quickly
as anticipated, resulting in weaker nw winds up to only 30 kts in
this area. Then expect winds to diminish to under 25 kts by this
aftn and remain at 20-25 kts or less through the rest of the week as
a relatively weak pressure gradient dominates.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...KC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

MIZ012-013-180830-
DELTA MI-MENOMINEE MI-
403 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MENOMINEE AND
CENTRAL DELTA COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM EDT/330 AM CDT/...

AT 403 AM EDT/303 AM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA BRANCHE...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF ESCANABA...
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLADSTONE...RAPID RIVER...NAHMA...LA BRANCHE...BRAMPTON...WHITNEY...
ENSIGN...CORNELL...NAHMA JUNCTION...ST. NICHOLAS...PERKINS AND
MAPLEWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4577 8748 4595 8752 4599 8728 4598 8725
      4599 8724 4608 8667 4582 8661
TIME...MOT...LOC 0803Z 261DEG 52KT 4588 8739

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

MIZ013-180845-
DELTA MI-
415 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DELTA COUNTY UNTIL 445
AM EDT...

AT 414 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GLADSTONE...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF ESCANABA...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLADSTONE...RAPID RIVER...GARDEN CORNERS...ISABELLA...BRAMPTON...
THOMPSON...ENSIGN...NAHMA JUNCTION...PERKINS...MAPLEWOOD AND CHICAGO
LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4586 8633 4588 8646 4586 8646 4581 8719
      4598 8723 4611 8649 4590 8649 4587 8634
      4591 8633 4595 8625 4587 8623
TIME...MOT...LOC 0814Z 260DEG 60KT 4591 8710

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
427 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

MIZ013-014-180900-
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT MI-DELTA MI-
427 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 426 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES EAST OF RAPID RIVER...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF ESCANABA...
MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANISTIQUE...M-94 BETWEEN STEUBEN AND MANISTIQUE...GARDEN CORNERS...
ISABELLA...THOMPSON...ENSIGN...INDIAN LAKE STATE PARK...NAHMA
JUNCTION...CHICAGO LAKE...COOKS AND GULLIVER.

LAT...LON 4585 8691 4603 8696 4620 8605 4593 8598
TIME...MOT...LOC 0826Z 258DEG 58KT 4596 8683

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

MIZ013-014-180915-
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT MI-DELTA MI-
440 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 440 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF GARDEN CORNERS...OR 13 MILES WEST OF MANISTIQUE...
MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANISTIQUE...M-94 BETWEEN STEUBEN AND MANISTIQUE...BLANEY PARK...
ISABELLA...INDIAN LAKE STATE PARK...CHICAGO LAKE...COOKS AND
GULLIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN MARQUETTE.

&&

LAT...LON 4597 8589 4596 8591 4589 8661 4607 8666
      4622 8586 4597 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 258DEG 58KT 4600 8653

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
448 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

MIZ014-180915-
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT MI-
448 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 448 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MANISTIQUE...MOVING EAST AT 75 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANISTIQUE...M-94 BETWEEN STEUBEN AND MANISTIQUE...BLANEY PARK...
INDIAN LAKE STATE PARK AND GULLIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN MARQUETTE.

&&

LAT...LON 4597 8589 4595 8592 4592 8637 4610 8642
      4621 8586 4597 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 0848Z 259DEG 64KT 4603 8629

07

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