Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
727 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Early afternoon water vapor imagery together with GFS 500mb heights
and winds showed a longwave trough over New England, with a subtle
low-amplitude shortwave over the western Dakotas. Over the next 24
hours this subtle shortwave will strengthen as the aforementioned
longwave trough retards its progression eastward. Ageostrohpic
divergence in response to the upper level curvature will lead to
rising air which will cause a surface low to track across Iowa. A
broad area of H850 Fgen will develop north of the surface low, and
this focused area of ascent will lead to 1 to 2 inches of rain across
southeast MN and west central WI overnight. At this point is
appears the that the heaviest rain will fall east of Redwood
Falls, south of Lakeville MN, and north of I-90. HiRes models show
convection developing after 00Z, so lifted the chances for thunder
a bit north up to the southern Metro.

Looking ahead, forecast soundings maintain the boundary layer
moisture along with weak omega, so continued with pops Wednesday
morning as there will likely be some lingering light rain and
drizzle. No sunshine is expected for Wednesday, and high temps will
only warm a couple of degrees into the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The longer term concerns remain the development of the western
coast trough and ridging ahead of the western CONUS energy with
warming over the area early in period...followed by overall timing
issues of fronts into the weekend.

Models continue to show strong trough over the west coast this
week...with embedded short wave energy ejected eastward affecting
our region. The next wave moves in on Friday...with decent WAA
pattern ahead of the associated surface front. This should provide
some lower 70s to the southwest with fropa...and dependent on
overall opaqueness of cloud cover. Clouds should be increase as
the front arrives...but moisture remains limited with this
system...and better forcing north and rather post frontal. We
warmed SUPERBLEND guidance a few degrees...closer to MOSGUIDE...
with 850mb temps progged in the upper teens.

The models diverge into the remainder of the period with the 12z
ECMWF a bit more amplified with the next short wave for Saturday.
The GFS is currently more progressive with the wave...but both a
pointing to a more post frontal rain shower risk with the system.
We expanded the coverage area of small pops for about the northern
two thirds of the CWA. Another wave approaches the area around
Halloween...but this will be dependent on timing of the west
coast energy. We will retain the small chance pops for this
period for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 727 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR conditions will deteriorate as rain continues to develop this
evening and all locations will be IFR by late tonight. Pushed back
the timing of deteriorating conditions by a few hours. Slow
improvement expected Wed afternoon. Best chance of heavy rain and
thunderstorms (some possibly strong with hail) will remain across
southern MN this evening and south of the TAF locations.

KMSP...VFR will transition to MVFR about 03Z, then IFR around
10Z. Storms should remain south but periods of heavy rain are
possible by late evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR with MVFR Cig possible. Wind VRB 5 kt.
Fri...VFR. Wind S 5-15 kt.
Sat...VFR with MVFR/-Shra possible. Wind N at 10g25 kt.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
112 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

MNZ064>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-261815-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
112 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MN. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ041>045-047>063-WIZ014>016-023>028-261815-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-POLK-
BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
112 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
706 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

MNZ091-260030-
MARTIN-
706 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN COUNTY...

AT 706 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALPHA...OR
NEAR JACKSON IN JACKSON COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SHERBURN AROUND 725 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE DUNNELL.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 81 AND 91.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4370 9486 4377 9479 4361 9458 4354 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 234DEG 28KT 4358 9489

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
805 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

MNZ091-092-260145-
MARTIN-FARIBAULT-
805 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MARTIN AND
WEST CENTRAL FARIBAULT COUNTIES...

AT 804 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TRIMONT TO NEAR FAIRMONT AIRPORT.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FAIRMONT AROUND 810 PM CDT.
  BLUE EARTH AROUND 840 PM CDT.
  TRUMAN AND FROST AROUND 845 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE GUCKEEN...ORMSBY...
FOXLAKE...NORTHROP...FAIRMONT AIRPORT...IMOGENE...HUNTLEY AND
GRANADA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 93 AND 123.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 6 AND 14.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4376 9486 4383 9486 4385 9470 4385 9445
      4359 9390 4358 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 264DEG 25KT 4379 9481 4363 9441

BORGHOFF