Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
651 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from northwestern MN
across eastern SD early this afternoon, along with an outflow
boundary over south central MN from earlier convection. Surface
dewpoints locally in the warm sector ahead of the main front are in
the upper 60s to lower 70s, with plenty of sunshine breaking out to
aid destabilization. Mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5C will
combine with the increasing MLCAPES to spark thunderstorm
development in the vicinity of the front. The only limiting factor
is shear, which is not impressive. Therefore the threat for severe
weather remains limited but not out of the question. Given the slow
storm motion heavy rainfall will be a concern as well, and will have
to monitor the threat for a Non-supercell tornado or two over south
central MN in the vicinity of the outflow boundary.

In the wake of the convection late tonight winds are fairly weak and
we may see enough clearing to result in fog development with the
moist ground conditions.

Tuesday should bring continual clearing, with mostly sunny skies by
mid to late afternoon. Highs will still be a bit above normal, and
range in the upper 70s to around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

The longer term concern remains the dry trend through the rest of
the work week...and timing of next trough and surface front into
next weekend.

Cool and dry high pressure will move across the region during the
week. The coolest day appears to be Thursday...with slow moderation
thereafter as upper heights rise/ridging and southerly surface
flow develops. The GFS and ECMWF have similar timing in passage of
the front on Labor Day. The GFS ensemble mean is a little slower
but the trough associated with this system appears to be quite
strong. Forcing will be directed favorably along the front for at
least the possibility of heavy rain. Filtered CWASP is pointing
toward a severe weather threat as well...as several of those
parameters are looking favorable for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

A cold front sagging south into central MN early this evening
has scattered convection occurring along it. Winds will ease this
evening which will weaken the convergence along the front - a main
driver of this activity. Another main driver is the very unstable
airmass which will stabilize after sunset. All model guidance
shows a diminishing trend in activity by late this evening, so
it's possible little will impact the TAF sites. Low clouds and fog
will likely develop again overnight across WI, before drier air
arrives Tuesday with the fropa.

KMSP...Confidence is low of showers or storms impacting the metro.
The cluster to the north should slide mainly east and weaken
during the next several hours, with only isolated-sct convection
further west into far western MN and SD. Reduced mention of precip
to VCSH, but may be able to take it out altogether by the 03z
update depending on trends.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NNE 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SSE 7-10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
953 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
301500-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
953 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM
CENTRAL BACK INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
538 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

MNZ043>045-050-292315-
BENTON-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-KANABEC-
538 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN KANABEC...
SOUTHEASTERN MORRISON...CENTRAL MILLE LACS AND NORTHEASTERN BENTON
COUNTIES...

AT 538 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MORA TO GRANITE LEDGE. MOVEMENT WAS
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORA...MILACA...BRUNSWICK...FORESTON...OGILVIE...GRASSTON...BOCK...
GRANITE LEDGE...MORRILL...GILMAN...LEWIS LAKE AND MORA AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 190 AND 200.

LAT...LON 4590 9314 4577 9314 4577 9315 4571 9396
      4586 9398 4591 9346
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 265DEG 18KT 4587 9336 4583 9387

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

MNZ044-045-300000-
MILLE LACS-KANABEC-
628 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

MILLE LACS...KANABEC...

AT 627 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MILLE LACS AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KANABEC COUNTIES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORA...MILACA...FORESTON...OGILVIE...QUAMBA...BOCK...
KNIFE LAKE AND MORA AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 191 AND 199.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 4588 9314 4587 9314 4572 9375 4584 9376
      4600 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 180DEG 0KT 4586 9344

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
718 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

MNZ043>045-050-300100-
BENTON-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-KANABEC-
718 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

BENTON...MILLE LACS...MORRISON...KANABEC...

AT 716 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN BENTON...SOUTHERN MILLE
LACS...FAR SOUTHEASTERN MORRISON...AND KANABEC COUNTIES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORA...MILACA...ISLE...FORESTON...OGILVIE...WAHKON...QUAMBA...BOCK...
KNIFE LAKE...GRANITE LEDGE...MORRILL AND WARMAN.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 190 AND 211.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 4598 9306 4598 9314 4582 9315 4570 9383
      4585 9400 4616 9344 4615 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 180DEG 0KT 4586 9344

BORGHOFF