Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
702 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.UPDATED for 00z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper trough over the
Dakotas. Weak upglide ahead of this feature continues to instigate
very light and widely scattered showers. Meanwhile, the more
concentrated thunderstorm activity is to the south over Iowa where
instability is higher near the front. Therefore, really do not
expect much this evening in our area other than the continuance of
spotty showers. Higher chances arrive overnight as the trough axis
enters western MN. Have centered the highest precip chances between
06Z and 18Z for MN, and through 21Z for WI counties.

Due to the trough being centered overhead and accompanied by
extensive low cloud cover and precip on Saturday, high temperatures
will likely be the coolest we have experienced since around the 1st
of June, which is around 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time of August.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

The long term will be categorized by a fairly progressive, though
amplified pattern as we begin our transition to a bit more fall-
like weather. A cool weekend for mid August standards is still
expected, with a quick warmup Monday/Tuesday ahead of the next
cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday, with temperatures similar to
what we are expecting this weekend coming to end next week.

Saturday night, we will be slowly working showers out of western
WI as the upper wave currently working across the Dakotas today
slowly moves across the Great Lakes. The NAM and Canadian have
started to come in line with the GFS/ECMWF with a more eastern
track for the heaviest precip Saturday/Saturday night, so we did
start trimming how far west there are mentionable pops Saturday
night, keeping them confined to western WI. Behind this rain,
surface ridge axis and clearing skies moving into western MN means
we should see some folks in west central MN start out in the upper
40s Sunday morning, before we turn into a sunny Sunday with highs
in the 70s.

Monday, we quickly get into return flow and warming temperatures
as southerly winds quickly increase. The models show a 30kt llj
coming up on Monday, with a decent amount of WAA, but little model
derived QPF is generated. 1000-500 RH shows the atmospheric
column is rather dry, but you can't completely rule out some
thunderstorms over central MN Monday afternoon within this WAA
regime given the increase in elevated instability as well. That
thunder threat will continue into Monday evening, but lift north
with the warm front, with thunderstorm chances for the MPX area
not really increasing until Tuesday evening, which is when the
cold front begins moving into western MN. This front looks to
cross the MPX area Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. So
timing isn't the greatest for seeing the warmest temperatures we
could or getting much in the way of severe weather, though the
20-25 kts of 0-1km shear should be more than adequate for a few
strong to severe storms come Wednesday afternoon ahead of the
front.

The 19.12 ECMWF came in faster with the midweek fropa, becoming
more in line with the GFS. This likely means we are too slow in
clearing the precip out Wednesday night. By Thursday, h85 temps
are back in the single digits, which means we should see highs
back in the 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Occasional MFVR conditions overnight with reduced visibility from
rain showers. A cold front will continue to push through and
should see ceilings around 1000 to 2000 ft Saturday morning, with
rain continuing in eastern MN and western WI. At this time the
chance of thunder is too low to include mention in the TAF.

KMSP...
Should see occasional reduced visibility with the showers passing
through this evening. As mentioned above, MVFR clouds will move in
Saturday morning. At this time it appears that they should stay
above 1800 ft, but confidence is not too high that they wont dip
below 1700 at times. VFR conditions should move in by late
afternoon/early evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR with morning MVFR Cigs possible. Winds NW 5 kts.
Mon...VFR. Winds S 10-15 kts.
Tue...VFR. Winds S 12-15 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
210000-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
648 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT THE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     TORNADO          HOLLANDALE              43.76N 93.21W
08/18/2016                   FREEBORN           MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DAMAGE PHOTOS FROM KAAL-TV BROADCAST
            METEOROLOGIST CLEARLY SHOW TORNADIC DAMAGE
            TO A CORN FIELD AND TREES ON THE NORTHWEST
            CORNER OF HWY 251 AND ZUYDER ZEE AVE.
            TORNADO WAS ONLY ABOUT 1/8 MILE LONG.
            DOWNBURST DAMAGE WAS ALSO PRESENT 1/2 MILE
            WEST OF HOLLANDALE AND ACROSS THE SOUTH SIDE
            OF TOWN, SOUTH OF HWY 251. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

&&

KRAUSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
627 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     TORNADO          HOLLANDALE              43.76N 93.21W
08/18/2016                   FREEBORN           MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DAMAGE PHOTOS FROM KAAL-TV BROADCAST
            METEOROLOGIST CLEARLY SHOW TORNADIC DAMAGE
            TO A CORN FIELD AND TREES ON THE NORTHWEST
            CORNER OF HWY 251 AND ZUYDER ZEE AVE.
            TORNADO WAS ONLY ABOUT 1/8 MILE LONG.
            DOWNBURST DAMAGE WAS ALSO PRESENT 1/2 MILE
            WEST OF HOLLANDALE AND ACROSS THE SOUTH SIDE
            OF TOWN, SOUTH OF HWY 251. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR. TORNADO RATED EF-0 WITH
            WINDS OF 65-75 MPH.

&&

KRAUSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
942 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

MNZ078-085-093-200345-
FREEBORN-GOODHUE-STEELE-
942 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED IN FREEBORN
GOODHUE AND STEELE COUNTIES...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

FREEBORN...GOODHUE...STEELE...

AT 941 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS OVER OWATONNA.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OWATONNA...RED WING...PINE ISLAND...ZUMBROTA...BLOOMING PRAIRIE...
KENYON...GOODHUE...WANAMINGO...WELCH...ELLENDALE...
GENEVA AND HARTLAND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 21 AND 41.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 14 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 173 AND 181.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 75 AND 89...AND BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 91 AND 104.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 4380 9350 4385 9346 4385 9341 4390 9341
      4420 9314 4420 9305 4430 9304 4468 9269
      4457 9255 4454 9231 4446 9226 4445 9243
      4437 9243 4436 9255 4420 9256 4419 9305
      4378 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 180DEG 0KT 4409 9314

JRB