Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
122 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2016

The short term forecast period will feature weak shortwave energy
and troughing overhead, which will mean the potential for spurts
of light precip, with bouts of more organized activity this
afternoon and evening as the surface trough noses into the area
and a more detectable 500mb impulse passes. Have included likely
precip chances across east/south central MN this afternoon, and
across west central WI this evening. Although shear is short of
impressive, it does appear sufficient for a few storms to
potentially flare up this afternoon during peak heating. Strong wind
gusts would be the foremost concern, along with heavy rainfall
given the weak flow and precipitable water values around 1.5+
inches.

Given the amount of low level moisture and light winds, fog
development will remain a concern both early this morning and
again tonight where cloud cover scatters out.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2016

Overall, the mean long wave trough over central North America will
control the weather pattern across the Upper Midwest through the
forecast period. A strong and persistent upper low that has been semi
permanent near the North Pole over the past few weeks, has led to a
positive AO (Arctic Oscillation). This is usually a winter type
forecasting parameter which leads to colder air holding across the
arctic region. However, some of the energy with this pattern has
filtered southward across southern Canada. This has created a more
unsettled weather and a faster jet stream across the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest. Taking this pattern and model interpretation means
that the active weather will continue. It also means that some of the
cooler air mass from northern Canada may filter further southward.
Current temperature forecast for the upcoming weekend are 5 to 10
degrees below normal, and some places maybe cooler than 10 degrees
below normal if the Thu/Fri system is stronger than current models
forecast.

As for the active weather pattern, subtle differences are noted
between the GFS/EC/GEM for Wed as for precipitation lingering or
ending by 12z Wed. GFS is more bullish on holding onto the
precipitation longer on Wed, with the GEM a close second. The EC is
more progressive and mainly dry on Wednesday. It seems that the GFS
is holding onto a 70H wave further upstream, leading to a better
chance of precipitation through Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise,
temperatures should remain above normal on Wed/Thu which
will be the warmest in the next 7-10 days based on the latest
pattern regime.

It still looks favorable for a widespread precipitation event late
Thursday/Friday as the next short wave trough moves across the Upper
Midwest. This short wave will supply the cooler air mass expected
for the weekend, and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2016

We expect thunderstorms to develop in central MN and western WI
over the next few hours. After the storms develop they will
gradually drift East-Southeast through the evening. We think most
of the TAF sites will be impacted with showers/storms from 20z-
04z.

KMSP...

The cumulus clouds will slowly grow into showers/storms over the
next few hours, so we expect a much busier radar image between
20z-00z. Most of the initial development...before 21z...could be
north of the airport. The best window for thunder looks like
between 23z-02z based on the latest trends.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 10-15 kts.
Sat..VFR. Winds N-NW 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
126 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
171830-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
126 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COUPLE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRANITE FALLS
THROUGH HUTCHINSON TO NORTHFIELD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
238 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

MNZ042-043-162030-
TODD-MORRISON-
238 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TODD AND
NORTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES...

AT 237 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PHILBROOK...OR
22 MILES WEST OF CROW WING STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PHILBROOK.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 10 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117
AND 126.

LAT...LON 4624 9500 4631 9497 4635 9482 4628 9441
      4612 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 289DEG 16KT 4628 9481

BORGHOFF