Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
359 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2016

One compact short wave is lifting northeast across central MN
late this afternoon. Other than a few showers, not much of
significance has accompanied it. Heights are building slightly,
and with subsidence behind it as evident in satellite imagery, the
amount of additional activity should be limited for much of the
overnight hours. The general troughiness will, however, remain in
place with the atmospheric river from east Texas up through
Michigan continuing to halt the progression of the large scale
flow. Reduced PoPs to slight chance across much of western
Minnesota tonight.

Mid and high level cloud cover should prevent the formation of
widespread fog again tonight, but a minima will be in place across
western WI. With calm winds and increasing humidity, felt it was
prudent to keep the fog mention in.

Another short wave will rotate southeast across the CWA Tuesday.
Pwats increasing to between 1.5-1.75 inches, and weak to moderate
skinny CAPE thanks to generally poor lapse rates should allow for
scattered to numerous thunderstorm development mostly south and
east of St. Cloud by early afternoon. Mid level flow will be
quite weak and should greatly limit severe potential aside from a
few loosely organized clusters capable of gusty winds. The weak
wind field will also allow for slow moving storms dictated more
by outflow boundaries than the mean flow. MBE velocities average
less than 7-8 kts. So, heavy rain will be a threat once again. QPF
grids represent a large scale average, but fully expect pockets
of 1-2+ inches that cannot be resolved this far out.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2016

The extended forecast concerns remain timing of next front
thursday night/friday and the cooling trend into the weekend.

Initial front exiting the region later Tuesday night...with dry
conditions developing WEdnesday and most of Thursday. Warming
ahead of next front will bring small chance of thunder to the
western cwa by Thursday afternoon. Thermal ridging with surface
warm front lifting over the area will be area of greatest severe
weather concern by Thursday evening. SPC day4 outlook looks good.

Models consistent with strong cold front moving east over the
region Friday with the severe weather threat shifting into
Wisconsin. Much cooler and drier conditions move in for the
weekend...with highs struggling to warm through the 70s and
dewpoints dropping into the 40s.

Timing of the next chance of showers/thunder comes in for next
Monday as another frontal system affects the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2016

VFR conditions expected through this evening, then some fog may
form again over western WI. Scattered showers are expected to
persist across central and western MN through the period, with a
few storms also possible.

KMSP...It appears the shower activity will remain west until
Tuesday afternoon when more widespread showers and storms develop.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Slgt Chc MVFR/TSRA late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
104 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

MNZ041>045-047>052-054>062-064>070-073>077-082>085-091>093-161815-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-
MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-
MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-
RICE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
104 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ053-063-078-WIZ014>016-023>028-161815-
CHISAGO-WASHINGTON-GOODHUE-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-
PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
104 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

MNZ064-152330-
YELLOW MEDICINE-
552 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN YELLOW MEDICINE
COUNTY...

AT 552 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
CLARKFIELD...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF MONTEVIDEO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANITE FALLS...CLARKFIELD...HANLEY FALLS...
HAZEL RUN AND GRANITE FALLS AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 U.S. HIGHWAY 212 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 44 AND 49.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 59 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 94 AND 102.

LAT...LON 4486 9582 4485 9560 4482 9554 4466 9557
      4475 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 288DEG 11KT 4479 9575

BORGHOFF