Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
234 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Radar loops this morning nicely show the two waves of interest for
the weather the rest of today. This first is a nice spin up around
Fargo, with the other being an MCV over northeast Neb that is left
over from an MCS that tracked from east of the Black Hills down into
north-central KS overnight. Models initialized the northern wave
well, but this MCV in Neb went largely unnoticed by the 27.00 model
runs. For the 27.00 models, it is this wave up by Fargo that will
slowly slide down I-94 through the day that much of the guidance is
keying in on for bringing us precip chances today, though the
Nebraska MCV could end up being problematic for the pop forecast for
today, especially if it can help spur development later in the day
to our south that is currently not forecast to happen.

This morning, we are see showers and thunderstorms moving into
western and across central MN within zone of slightly stronger
winds and temp/moisture advection with the 925-850mb winds. However,
these already weak 925-850 winds will weaken to virtually nothing
this morning, with the coverage of showers expected to diminish
through the morning before diurnal heating destabilizes the
atmosphere, allowing shower and thunderstorm coverage to build again
by late this morning and into the afternoon. Biggest change needed
for the pops is both deterministic and CAMs are fairly progressive
with the wave up by Fargo through tonight, which will result in a
much faster west to east ending of precip than what the previous
forecast had. Though we sped up the precip departure considerably
tonight, we are still slower than what the majority of CAMs depict.

Still not anticipating much of a severe threat. The one thing that
is of some concern is that this afternoon, a weak surface low will
be tracking across the area, but there will be virtually no flow at
h850 and h5 winds will be under 20kts, resulting in very little
shear, which means little organization to what will be pulse/airmass
thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover will also limit the degree to
which we can destabilize and instability looks to be weak enough
where updrafts will not be strong enough to generate much of a hail
or even wind threat with this activity.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

A cooler and drier air mass will settle in across MN/WI Thursday
and Friday behind the rain and cold front that will pass through
the area today and tonight. A surface high will move across the
Upper Mississippi River Valley late this week and the flow will
remain weak through the depth of the atmosphere. There will be a
weak northwest flow aloft with light and somewhat variable winds
in the lower atmosphere. Friday morning will likely be the
coolest morning we've had since July 1st when we saw lows in the
40s and 50s locally. We have a chance for showers/storms in
western MN on Saturday when the 925-850mb flow increases across
the Dakotas and the low level jet approaches the western MN border
- not likely at this point - but possible.

The pattern turns a little more interesting by Monday-Tuesday when
the flow increases out of the west-southwest with building
heights as a trough digs in across British Columbia and crosses
the northern Rockies by Monday night. This will certainly bring
about an increase in temperatures and humidity locally by Tuesday
- perhaps a couple rounds of showers/storms. The rain chances are
still highly uncertain given it's 1) a day six forecast and 2) the
convective trigger is weak as the surface boundary doesn't look
very strong and the upper support remains well north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

MVFR/IFR conditions with the showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. The storms will shift east this afternoon and should
exit the region by this evening. Northerly winds will develop and
bring drier air across the region, but forecast soundings show low
clouds developing overnight, especially in eastern MN and western
WI. The clouds should dissipate by late morning or early
afternoon.

KMSP...
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible at KMSP through
mid afternoon ahead of passing cold front. Winds will then become
northwesterly, with low stratus expected to develop overnight and
scattering out by late morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR by afternoon. Winds NE 5 kts.
Fri...VFR. Winds E 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds SE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1149 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
281700-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1149 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR MAINLY EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
210 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

WIZ014-272015-
POLK-
210 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT WESTERN POLK
COUNTY...

AT 209 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WILD RIVER
STATE PARK...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PINE CITY...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSCEOLA...ST. CROIX FALLS...FREDERIC...LUCK...TAYLORS FALLS...
CENTURIA...MILLTOWN...DRESSER...CUSHING...OSCEOLA AIRPORT...
WOLF CREEK AND EAST FARMINGTON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4550 9247 4521 9272 4521 9275 4529 9276
      4540 9265 4545 9265 4548 9270 4555 9274
      4558 9288 4564 9288 4565 9253 4573 9252
      4573 9240
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 276DEG 27KT 4559 9278

JRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
246 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

WIZ023-024-272015-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-
246 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ST. CROIX AND NORTHWESTERN
PIERCE COUNTIES...

AT 246 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WILLOW RIVER
STATE PARK...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF RIVER FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RIVER FALLS...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...NORTH HUDSON...AFTON...
SOMERSET...BALDWIN...HAMMOND...ROBERTS...WOODVILLE...
GLENWOOD CITY AND STAR PRAIRIE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 94 IN WISCONSIN BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND
30.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4486 9215 4481 9278 4490 9278 4494 9275
      4497 9277 4521 9274 4521 9216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 261DEG 24KT 4500 9271

SPD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
309 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

WIZ015-272045-
BARRON-
309 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BARRON COUNTY...

AT 308 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ALMENA...OR 13
MILES WEST OF RICE LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.  THIS STORM
CONTAINS BROAD WEAK ROTATION AND IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY
INTENSIFICATION.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RICE LAKE...BARRON...CHETEK...CAMERON...
ALMENA AND RICE LAKE AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 53 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 135 AND 146.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4536 9205 4545 9208 4556 9177 4539 9164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 255DEG 14KT 4543 9199

SPD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
317 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

WIZ023-272115-
ST. CROIX-
317 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ST. CROIX COUNTY...

AT 317 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE ST CROIX
BEACH...OR NEAR RIVER FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIVER FALLS AROUND 330 PM CDT.
  ROBERTS AROUND 345 PM CDT.
  HAMMOND AROUND 400 PM CDT.
  BALDWIN AROUND 410 PM CDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 94 IN WISCONSIN BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 6 AND
21.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4486 9271 4492 9275 4508 9243 4487 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 250DEG 15KT 4491 9269

SPD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
318 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE ST. PAUL          44.93N 93.06W
07/27/2016  M61 MPH          RAMSEY             MN   ASOS

            61 MPH GUST MEASURED AT ST PAUL AIRPORT. .

&&

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
324 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

MNZ070-077-272100-
DAKOTA-RICE-
324 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN RICE COUNTIES...

AT 324 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER VESELI...OR 16
MILES WEST OF NORTHFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LONSDALE AROUND 330 PM CDT.
  WEBSTER AROUND 340 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE BRIDGEWATER AND
VESELI.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 65 AND 75.

LAT...LON 4444 9353 4451 9353 4456 9322 4439 9322
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 269DEG 23KT 4448 9349

SPD