Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
352 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Inverted trough positioned across western MN into eastern North
Dakota this afternoon dew points in the 60s and a few low 70s
pooling across the southern half of Minnesota.  Main upper level
shortwave can be seen on satellite along the northern border of the
North Dakota and Minnesota border.  Most of the precipitation
activity is expected to continue across northern MN toward Lake
Superior and far northern Wisconsin.

Instability has pooled across southern and western MN along the
inverted trough and south a subtle surface low in west central MN.
ML CAPE values have built to between 1000-2000 J/Kg.  If storms can
initiate, the effective shear values are impressive.  The issue I see
is, we will continue to struggle to see storms initiate.  The
cumulus field has been building through the afternoon, but is not
impressive at this point in the afternoon in terms of height and
depth.  In addition, the hi-res CAMs have been initializing with
thunderstorms too far south compared to reality.  If this trend
continues, storm development would be rather subdued.  Leaning
toward this thinking and not expecting too much development other
than some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms popping up in
central mn.  The ingredients do look to come together a bit better
on western Wisconsin late tonight, so included likely pops there.

Overnight, the high pressure area will begin pushing in from the
west and expecting the precip to slowly push off to the east.
Expecting that by tomorrow morning, all the precip will have exited
western Wisconsin to the east.  Skies will gradually clear from west
to east through the day, reaching western WI late in the day.  Highs
will top out in the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

After tonight's system moves out of the region, the main forecast
concern will be the potential of severe weather Saturday and
Saturday night.

50H will rise in the wake tonight's system as an upper ridge begins
to build across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains. Return
flow will commence late Thursday/Friday as the ridge moves off to
the east and a storm system begins to move across the northern
Rockies. By Friday afternoon, increasing southerly flow and deep
layer moisture will begin to surge northward into the Northern
Plains. This will set the stage for thunderstorms to develop across
the Dakotas Friday night, and into Minnesota Saturday.

The amount of instability Saturday will be determined by the amount
of cloud cover and any nocturnal convection Friday night/Saturday
morning. More than likely the best chance of widespread convection
will occur along and north of the maximized moisture advection.
Based on the latest model runs, central and northern Minnesota have
the best chance of widespread convection, further to the south, it
would be more low clouds and stratus to burn off. Wind shear values
are higher in central and northern Minnesota Saturday afternoon and
evening, with the main upper jet forecast to move across Minnesota
late Saturday/Sunday morning. This would lead to a more high cape,
low shear type of environment if the stratus/convection moves out by
the afternoon. Other facts will also play into severity, however,
over the past few runs of CIPS (Cooperative Institute for
Precipitation Systems), analogs remain very adamant on forecasting a
high probability of severe weather across Minnesota and Wisconsin
Saturday. The number one analog continues to be the June 17, 2010
tornado outbreak we had across Minnesota. Using percentiles of the
top 15 analogs exceeding 1 severe weather report within 110 km or 70
nm, there remains a high probability that most of southern and
central Minnesota will see severe weather. The latest SPC day 4
outlook still has a 15% chance of severe weather on Saturday. One
weather parameter that remains favorable for severe weather is the
strong push of much drier air in the wake of the cold front moving
across western Minnesota Saturday afternoon. This is similar to a
dry line in the southern plains that gets these types of severe
weather events if conditions are favorable.

Past Saturday night, the mean upper air flow will become more north-
northwest as cooler Canadian air begins to filter across the Upper
Midwest. Based on the latest trends of the mean 50H flow next week
and teleconnection of PNA/NAO both becoming positive, this is
more conducive for a drier and cooler pattern for the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Main concerns are thunder potential this afternoon and the
potential for MVFR ceilings overnight, which mainly look to affect
the eastern half of the area. Keeping an eye on a mid level
shortwave dropping southeast across northwestern MN toward
northern WI this afternoon and tonight. Still expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to possibly get going this afternoon
along the southern periphery of this wave. How far south the
precip extends is the question that is beginning to look like it
may not be as far south as we once thought. Still included VCTS at
a few sites but may be able to remove that depending on what we
see develop as the afternoon goes on.

KMSP...Have included VCTS in the TAF this afternoon because there
is a possibility of thunder. However, hi-res CAMs are initializing
too far south so far, which may indicate their solutions push
storms too far south along the inverted trough. Will continue to
monitor and update as needed.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Winds SSE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR TSRA in the aftn/eve. Winds S-SW 10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Winds W 10-20kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SPD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
158 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
231900-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
158 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
752 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

MNZ076-230115-
LE SUEUR-
752 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LE SUEUR COUNTY...

AT 752 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ST THOMAS...OR
23 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANKATO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW PRAGUE...MONTGOMERY...LE CENTER...KILKENNY...HEIDELBERG...
ST THOMAS AND ST HENRY.

LAT...LON 4441 9389 4455 9380 4455 9369 4451 9353
      4425 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 295DEG 29KT 4447 9374

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
757 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     HAIL             DELANO                  45.04N 93.79W
06/22/2016  E2.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   PUBLIC

            RELAYED FROM MEDIA VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
810 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SE LONSDALE           44.43N 93.34W
06/22/2016                   RICE               MN   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
824 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             6 SE LONSDALE           44.42N 93.33W
06/22/2016  M3.00 INCH       RICE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
829 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEW PRAGUE              44.55N 93.57W
06/22/2016  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              MN   PUBLIC

            FELL IN 20 MINUTES VIA MEDIA THROUGH SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
841 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

MNZ063-070-230215-
WASHINGTON-DAKOTA-
841 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEASTERN DAKOTA COUNTIES...

AT 838 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER INVER GROVE
HEIGHTS...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF ST. PAUL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

A FUNNEL CLOUD HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGAN...WOODBURY...COTTAGE GROVE...INVER GROVE HEIGHTS...HASTINGS...
ROSEMOUNT...SOUTH ST. PAUL...MENDOTA HEIGHTS...ST. PAUL PARK...
PRESCOTT...AFTON AND NEWPORT.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 U.S. HIGHWAY 10 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 300 AND 302.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 113 AND 130.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4478 9315 4488 9312 4488 9277 4482 9277
      4475 9281 4473 9277 4465 9277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 281DEG 25KT 4481 9304

BORGHOFF