Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
421 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms in western MN this afternoon are
slowly working eastward with time.  Strong theta-e advection across
that area is aiding in providing enough lift to tap into elevated
instability and produce scattered thunderstorm activity.  This area
will likely expand as a low level jet evident at 850mb increases
after dark.  Hence, increased pops across the board with likely pops
moving through.  With confidence increasing in the expansive
precipitation area later, upped QPF values to near 0.5", much needed
rain for many.  Thunderstorms are generally expected to be sub-
severe and remain elevated tonight.  We could see small hail in some
of the stronger cores, so that and lightning are the threats for
folks outside.

We could see fog form overnight across portions of the forecast
area, but at this time confidence in the extent and density is low
so left it out of the official forecast.

For tomorrow we see the pattern change continue with southwesterly
low level winds and the hot upper ridge beginning to build in.  Dew
points will be on the rise as well, so this will be the beginning of
a bit of a hot and muggy stretch to finish out the week and head
into this weekend.  Dew points will rise into the mid and upper 60s
by tomorrow afternoon, so it will feel quite a bit different outside
24 hours from now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016

The ridge builds in across the Upper Mississippi River Valley
Thursday night into Friday and a warm front lifts north across the
area. South of the front, which should be most of southern MN and
west central WI, we expect upper 80s to mid 90s for highs to go
along with dewpoints that climb well into the 60s. We wouldn't
surprised to see a few locations hit 70 for a dewpoint. The
biggest question on Friday is just how far north does the warm
front set up, because along and north of this boundary, there will
be a chance for thunderstorms. At this time, this looks to be more
like northern MN during the day Friday, but the front should sag
southward during the evening and pull the CAPE/moisture gradient
south. If this happens, then most of the forecast is at risk to
see a cluster of showers and storms late in the day on Friday
along the instability gradient. We have added pops to the forecast
to account for this threat. The GFS/ECMWF are more consistent with
this thinking than they have been in previous runs. Saturday is
trending a bit warmer than the past couple runs and the break
down of the upper ridge still looks to take place Monday and
Tuesday and bring another 1-2 rounds of showers and storms.
Overall, the heat remains, but the threat for rain looks better
over the next few days than what we were previously thinking.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016

Showers and thunderstorms in far southwestern MN continue to work
slowly eastward today. The main change to the forecast was to
include precipitation coming into RWF later this afternoon. This
is along the leading edge of a warm air advection regime in the
low levels, beginning to push into the region. This precipitation
area is expected to become more expansive tonight across the
remainder of the area and is the main concern for this period. The
main change in the extended portion of the forecast period was to
take cigs down tomorrow morning behind the precipitation.

KMSP...confidence in seeing low cigs tomorrow is low at this time.
Future updates this evening and tonight will have a better handle
on this potential so be sure to check back.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC TSRA late. Winds S 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Winds NE 5 kts.
SUN...VFR. CHC TSRA late. Winds SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
092045-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
345 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN, AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HEAT INDICES OF 90 TO 95 DEGREES THURSDAY, AND 95 TO
100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...THE RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS WILL
INCREASE FOR PEOPLE OUTDOORS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
312 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

MNZ064-065-073-082115-
RENVILLE-REDWOOD-YELLOW MEDICINE-
312 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN YELLOW MEDICINE...
NORTHWESTERN REDWOOD AND WEST CENTRAL RENVILLE COUNTIES...

AT 311 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HANLEY FALLS...
OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF MONTEVIDEO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOOD LAKE...HANLEY FALLS...ECHO...BELVIEW...HAZEL RUN AND GRANITE FALLS
AIRPORT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4478 9571 4470 9523 4449 9533 4459 9561
      4463 9561 4463 9572 4465 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 288DEG 21KT 4470 9569

SPD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
450 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

MNZ073-074-082230-
BROWN-REDWOOD-
450 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL BROWN AND EAST
CENTRAL REDWOOD COUNTIES...

AT 450 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR REDWOOD FALLS
AIRPORT...OR NEAR REDWOOD FALLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MORGAN AROUND 505 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE EVAN.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 71 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 68 AND 69.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4431 9483 4444 9513 4453 9504 4447 9480
      4446 9478 4444 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 298DEG 22KT 4447 9503

BORGHOFF