Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
349 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Cold front at 3pm extended from Des Moines up to Rochester to around
Turtle Lake, where there is a triple point with an occluded front
that extends back to the northwest corner of MN and eventually to a
1002 mb surface low near Rugby, ND. There is about 1000 j/kg of
sbCAPE in the warm sector, with a line of thunderstorms now along
the front from central IA into western WI. Beside CAPE being
marginal, bulk shear ranges from 20-30 kts, so not seeing a big
severe threat with these storms. Biggest severe threat will come
with gusty winds, though that threat is largely east of the MPX CWA
where over 8 deg C/KM low level lapse rates are currently being
analyzed over the southeast tip of MN. What we have seen is some
pretty efficient rainfall production with these cells as storm
motion has been slow, with the bulk shear vectors lined up
parallel to the front, favorable for more of a heavy rain threat.

This front has been moving east at a pretty good clip during the day
and there is good agreement in the CAMs with this activity largely
being east of the MPX cwa by 00z, so sped up the departure of PoPs
quite a bit tonight. Otherwise, behind the front, we are seeing
dewpoints drop into the 40s across western MN, so we will cool down
nicely tonight, with lows in the lower 50s looking like a safe bet
out in western MN.

Wednesday, the surface low will continue to fill as it moves along
the international border. Made a couple of changes to the forecast
for tomorrow as well. First cu rule supports the development of a
broken to overcast cu field, so boosted sky cover through the
afternoon. With more clouds, also backed off on highs a couple of
degrees. Finally, reduced PoPs as well and limited how far south
a mention comes. The cold pool at h5 will be heading for NW Ontario,
with the associated steep mid-level lapse rates heading to northern
MN. In addition, forecast soundings are showing an inversion between
750 and 700 mb at all of the MPX bufkit locations that looks to keep
a lid on how deep our convection can get and really limit our shower
potential. Only reason we left PoPs where we did is for the strong
spoke of PV the NAM/GFS show moving across central MN during the
afternoon. Other than that, it's hard to find much support for
seeing any precip in the MPX CWA Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Cooler weather is expected in the extended period of the
forecast. The best chance for thunderstorms is Friday, with
lingering showers through the weekend.

Cool and cloudy conditions will be in place Wednesday evening with
brisk westerly winds making it feel more like early April than early
June. High pressure will slowly build in on Thursday with western MN
seeing more sun, while western WI hangs on to clouds for most of the
day.

Friday will be the most active weather day across the region as an
upper level low embedded in the northwest flow will bring a
favorable shear profile across the Upper Midwest in term of both
directional and speed shear. The lingering uncertainty is whether or
not there will be enough instability for deep updrafts and organized
convection. At this point the threat for severe weather hinges on
that variable. Forecast sounds show deep saturation, and no elevated
mixed layer across the northern part of the forecast area, but
soundings across southwest Minnesota are less cloudy, and generate
2000 to 2500 j/kg of CAPE by late Friday evening. This wave is
deepening with time, and despite the northwest orientation is taking
on a negative tilt. The combination of these factors should produce
severe storms across the Midwest. When it get to June, often times
the thermodynamic environment will over-achieve if the dynamic
environment is in place, so will continue to watch

Looking ahead, the upper level wave driving Fridays storms will slow
down as it becomes more amplified, and as a result should lead to
lingering chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday into
Sunday. Early next week an upper level ridge will build out west
with warming temperatures by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

At 1730z, the cold front extended from about Waseca to St. Paul,
with thunderstorms rapidly developing along it from central IA
into wrn WI. The field that looks to have the best shot at
getting a TSRA is EAU, and here, with the HopWRF and HRRR showing
a line of storms working through EAU around 22z, felt confident
enough to go with a prevailing TSRA between 2130z and 2230z. For
RNH/MSP any activity looks to be more scattered in nature at these
locations, so maintained nothing more than VCTS. LAMP winds have
not had enough of a west component to them behind the front, so
followed the HRRR forecast with winds. Wednesday, sfc low over
north central ND will continue to fill as it moves across the
Canadian border. CU rule supports a BKN-OVC cu/sc field developing
area wide Wednesday morning. As for chances that cloud field will
be MVFR or VFR, MVFR is likely for AXN, possible for STC, and
unlikely for everyone else.

KMSP...The HRRR had been supporting storm development over the
western Twin Cities, but with front already east of MSP, TSRA
chances will be better east of the field. Still, expect some TSRA
nearby for the first hour or two, so left the VCTS in. The HRRR
has had a better handle on wind direction than the LAMP, so
followed it for the wind forecast. Expect the cu field to rapidly
develop after 13z Wednesday. Likely starting out near 3k ft, but
quickly working toward 5k ft for the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Winds WNW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. TSRA likely with chc MVFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.
SAT...MVFR likely. Chc -shra. Winds NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
123 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

MNZ078-085-093-WIZ015-016-024>028-011830-
GOODHUE-STEELE-FREEBORN-BARRON-RUSK-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-
EAU CLAIRE-
123 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTIUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>077-082>084-091-092-WIZ014-023-011830-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-
MARTIN-FARIBAULT-POLK-ST. CROIX-
123 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

WIZ015-016-025>028-312100-
RUSK-PEPIN-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN RUSK...
SOUTHEASTERN BARRON...EASTERN DUNN...NORTH CENTRAL PEPIN AND WESTERN
CHIPPEWA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

AT 315 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ISLAND LAKE TO NEAR DOWNSVILLE.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAU CLAIRE...MENOMONIE...CHIPPEWA FALLS...LAKE HALLIE...BLOOMER...CHETEK...
DURAND...COLFAX...ELK MOUND...BRUCE...NEW AUBURN AND WEYERHAEUSER.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 94 IN WISCONSIN BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 43 AND 60.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 53 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 126.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

LAT...LON 4494 9139 4460 9195 4496 9192 4529 9166
      4564 9111 4564 9107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 205DEG 25KT 4527 9136 4476 9185

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ESE COLFAX            44.96N 91.61W
05/31/2016                   CHIPPEWA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS SMALL TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             6 ESE COLFAX            44.96N 91.61W
05/31/2016  M0.75 INCH       CHIPPEWA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
405 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

WIZ016-027-312200-
RUSK-CHIPPEWA-
405 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RUSK AND WESTERN
CHIPPEWA COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

AT 405 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF EXELAND TO TILDEN.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAU CLAIRE...LADYSMITH...CHIPPEWA FALLS...LAKE HALLIE...BLOOMER...LAKE
WISSOTA...CORNELL...BRUCE...NEW AUBURN...WEYERHAEUSER...TILDEN AND TONY.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 53 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 94 AND 118.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

LAT...LON 4487 9133 4486 9165 4495 9165 4521 9156
      4521 9154 4525 9154 4564 9140 4564 9086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 229DEG 25KT 4563 9109 4500 9146

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE ELK MOUND         44.87N 91.67W
05/31/2016  U2.00 INCH       DUNN               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL. FLOODED ROADWAY
            HWY 12 AND 970TH ST. REPORTED BY THE
            SHERIFFS OFFICE.

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
429 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

WIZ028-312200-
EAU CLAIRE-
429 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN EAU CLAIRE COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

AT 428 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIRCHILD...OR
19 MILES WEST OF NEILLSVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAIRCHILD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

LAT...LON 4460 9108 4486 9103 4485 9092 4470 9092
      4460 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 181DEG 33KT 4465 9097

JPC