Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
737 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Concerns are thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening and
another threat tomorrow afternoon.

Upper low is on the move and is now into southeastern South Dakota.
Models open it up as a wave later tonight and the trough axis should
be out of western Wisconsin Sunday mid morning. Brief upper ridging
takes place, but with relatively zonal flow from the Pacific coast
to the Upper Midwest, it appears that a weak short wave will move
across the Dakotas Sunday afternoon.

Meanwhile a surface low was just north of Sioux City, with a front
extending northeast to the southeast Twin Cities metro and then
toward Rice Lake. Modest instability has been evident across
southern Minnesota into Wisconsin, and with a bit of clearing late
this morning, showers and a few storms quickly developed. With not
much shear, decent low level lapse rates and some instability, a
boundary in the area, and upper low just west of us, it is possible
there may be a funnel cloud or two and maybe even a landspout
tornado. This threat will taper off early this evening.

North of the boundary, an abundance of low clouds will keep
temperatures from dropping too much tonight. Lows should mainly be
55-60. There is enough low level moisture so that it will take quite
some time before clearing takes place, most likely Sunday
morning.

The clearing tomorrow morning will open the door for the potential
of more storms Sunday afternoon as the next short wave arrives. A
variety of models show more instability late tomorrow afternoon. In
fact, there looks to be more CAPE tomorrow than today. Moisture will
be sufficient, especially in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Thus
there may be more storms Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main forecast concern is timing of Monday nights' precipitation
chances.

Dry conditions should prevail Sunday night through Monday
afternoon as a dry west-northwest flow continues, and moisture
remains limited. There is some uncertainty late Monday afternoon
in southwest/south central Minnesota as moisture begins to return
ahead of a storm system across the Rockies. Depending upon the
speed and moisture return, parts of southwest/south central
Minnesota could see a few thunderstorms by the late afternoon.
Otherwise, the bulk of the precipitation should hold off until
late Monday night, and Tuesday as strong moisture advection and a
negatively tilted trough moves across the Upper Midwest. I
wouldn't be surprised to see severe thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon in west central/southwest/south central Minnesota based
on shear and MLCAPE values. Behind this system, a cool/cold air
mass moves in, and last for a few days. This cool period has been
advertised by the models but the strength of the colder air
remains questionable. Models have lowered highs by
Thursday/Friday, but these numbers could be lower if more of the
air mass originates in north central Canada, vs, the Canadian
Rockies. Some of the GEFS plumes on temperatures by late in the
week have lows back in the 40s in the Twin Cities, with highs in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 724 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Isolated to scattered showers will continue for the next several
hours, but outside of KEAU, there shouldn't be thunderstorms near
the TAF sites. In addition to the rain, there is a mix of VFR/MVFR
ceilings. We think some of these low clouds will expand tonight
and could even lower with time. We are not completely sold on this
scenario, especially given the time of year, but the moisture will
hang around tonight and any amount of nocturnal cooling should
help keep the low clouds in place. Our computer models disagree on
how much clearing occurs tonight.

KMSP...

While thunderstorms are no longer a threat, light rain and
MVFR conditions will likely linger through most of the night. It's
also possible the airport bounces from VFR to MVFR tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and -TSRA late. Winds S 5-10KT.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR, -TSRA likely. Winds S 10-20KT.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance of -SHRA. Winds W 10-20KT.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>076-082-083-091-WIZ014>016-023-292030-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-MARTIN-POLK-
BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS ARE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ077-078-084-085-092-093-WIZ024>028-292030-
RICE-GOODHUE-WASECA-STEELE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-
CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

WIZ023>025-282300-
ST. CROIX-DUNN-PIERCE-
515 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ST. CROIX...
NORTHWESTERN DUNN AND NORTHEASTERN PIERCE COUNTIES...

AT 515 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELMWOOD...OR 16
MILES WEST OF MENOMONIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODVILLE...GLENWOOD CITY...BOYCEVILLE...ELMWOOD...KNAPP...WHEELER...
EMERALD...DOWNING...WILSON AND HERSEY.

LAT...LON 4471 9218 4485 9241 4517 9221 4505 9187
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 206DEG 25KT 4485 9224

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

WIZ015-016-025-282330-
RUSK-DUNN-BARRON-
552 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RUSK...EASTERN
BARRON AND NORTHEASTERN DUNN COUNTIES...

AT 552 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RIDGELAND...OR
16 MILES NORTH OF MENOMONIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MENOMONIE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...CHETEK...CAMERON...BOYCEVILLE...PRAIRIE
FARM...DALLAS...WHEELER...HAUGEN...RIDGELAND AND WEYERHAEUSER.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4521 9162 4521 9167 4516 9167 4495 9188
      4505 9205 4564 9180 4564 9165 4550 9131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 206DEG 49KT 4513 9191

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

WIZ028-282330-
EAU CLAIRE-
601 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL EAU CLAIRE
COUNTY...

AT 600 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ELEVA...OR 12
MILES EAST OF MONDOVI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FALL CREEK...FOSTER...ALLEN AND BRACKETT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4475 9112 4460 9129 4459 9133 4460 9148
      4461 9148 4478 9139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 207DEG 28KT 4459 9142

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

WIZ015-016-290030-
RUSK-BARRON-
638 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN RUSK AND EASTERN BARRON
COUNTIES...

AT 638 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CHETEK...OR 12
MILES SOUTHEAST OF RICE LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RICE LAKE...CHETEK...CAMERON...WEYERHAEUSER...SUMNER...CANTON...MIKANA AND
BRILL.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4529 9150 4529 9154 4524 9154 4523 9155
      4530 9177 4564 9167 4564 9121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 204DEG 32KT 4534 9162

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
747 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

WIZ028-290100-
EAU CLAIRE-
747 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN EAU CLAIRE COUNTY...

AT 747 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FOSTER...OR 17
MILES SOUTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FALL CREEK...FOSTER AND LAKE EAU CLAIRE COUNTY PARK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 94 IN WISCONSIN BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 82 AND
86.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4481 9105 4459 9124 4460 9132 4483 9127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 204DEG 49KT 4465 9125

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
848 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

MNZ077-083>085-092-290230-
RICE-WASECA-FARIBAULT-BLUE EARTH-STEELE-
848 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN STEELE...SOUTHEASTERN
BLUE EARTH...CENTRAL RICE...SOUTHEASTERN WASECA AND NORTHWESTERN
FARIBAULT COUNTIES...

AT 847 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM BRIDGEWATER TO NEAR OTISCO TO NEAR DELAVAN. A
COUPLE REPORTS OF BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND A FEW
MORE FUNNEL CLOUDS COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS LINE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FARIBAULT...NORTHFIELD...WASECA...MAPLETON...WINNEBAGO...DUNDAS...
MORRISTOWN...MINNESOTA LAKE...WARSAW...WALDORF...DELAVAN AND BRIDGEWATER.

LAT...LON 4360 9425 4370 9425 4389 9409 4403 9357
      4447 9326 4447 9321 4434 9316 4396 9339
      4379 9398 4358 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 334DEG 92KT 4440 9325 4399 9353 4384 9401 4365
9423

ADL