Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS MN
AND WEST CENTRAL WI...AND LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END BY 8-9 PM AS A
BROAD SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
AREA. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL OCCUR
THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...ADVECTING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO
OUR AREA. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI TO THE LOWER 40S IN SOUTHERN MN.

WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST TO
THE MID 60S IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN DRY...AS OUR
AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS ONTARIO AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS...BUT MUCH WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO THE EAST OF A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MN ON SATURDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN MN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE ONLY SHOWING MODEST CAPE VALUES
AROUND OR LESS THAN 500 J/KG FROM THIS TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR
CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN...BUT THE MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...THOUGH ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IOWA...AND WE REMAIN UNDER
COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI.
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND 40S EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

A WEAK FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM WC WI...SW ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES...TO NEAR MANKATO HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6
HRS...AND WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THIS
WEAK FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL FORM IN AN AREA THAT CLEARED THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2-4SM IN SHRA/S IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. MVFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS
WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE N/NE AND GUSTY.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTINUED MVFR CIGS THRU THE EARLY AFTN 18-20Z
IS HIGH DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SE THIS
AFTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY TO IFR AT
TIMES THRU THE AFTN...BUT ONLY LASTING 5-10 MINS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI AFTN...VFR. WIND ENE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA PSBL IN THE AFTN/EVE. WIND ESE 10KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH -SHRA/TS. WIND SE 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADL
LONG TERM...ADL
AVIATION...JLT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
424 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

MNZ053-060>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
222130-
CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-
SCOTT-DAKOTA-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-
BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-
RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
424 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PEA-SIZED HAIL AND
BRIEF FUNNELS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO TOUCH DOWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064-065-073-222130-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-
MEEKER-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-REDWOOD-
424 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
415 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

MNZ075-083-212200-
NICOLLET-BLUE EARTH-
415 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BLUE EARTH AND
CENTRAL NICOLLET COUNTIES...

AT 415 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KLOSSNER...OR 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW ULM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS THEY HAVE BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW ULM...NICOLLET...COURTLAND...JUDSON AND KLOSSNER.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 14 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 107 AND 124.

LAT...LON 4410 9437 4426 9437 4427 9442 4438 9445
      4446 9432 4446 9429 4422 9410 4406 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 325DEG 11KT 4438 9435

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

MNZ060-061-212145-
ANOKA-HENNEPIN-
421 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HENNEPIN AND WEST
CENTRAL ANOKA COUNTIES...

AT 419 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER RAMSEY...OR 20
MILES SOUTH OF CAMBRIDGE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BROOKLYN PARK...MAPLE GROVE...COON RAPIDS...ANDOVER...RAMSEY...CHAMPLIN...
ANOKA...OAK GROVE AND DAYTON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 U.S. HIGHWAY 10 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 221 AND 232.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 143 AND 146.

LAT...LON 4529 9347 4531 9334 4515 9326 4515 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 355DEG 12KT 4526 9339

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
446 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

MNZ060-212215-
HENNEPIN-
446 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HENNEPIN COUNTY...

AT 446 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER OSSEO...OR 13
MILES NORTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINNEAPOLIS...BROOKLYN PARK...PLYMOUTH...MAPLE GROVE...BROOKLYN CENTER...
CHAMPLIN...ANOKA...CRYSTAL...NEW HOPE...ROBBINSDALE...DAYTON AND OSSEO.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 94 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 215 AND 224...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 227 AND 228.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 134 AND 145.

LAT...LON 4519 9340 4515 9334 4515 9332 4502 9328
      4501 9349 4521 9347 4521 9342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 356DEG 18KT 4513 9341

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
508 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

MNZ060-212230-
HENNEPIN-
508 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN HENNEPIN COUNTY...

AT 506 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
ROBBINSDALE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINNEAPOLIS...BROOKLYN PARK...EDINA...ST. LOUIS PARK...RICHFIELD...
BROOKLYN CENTER...FRIDLEY...GOLDEN VALLEY...HOPKINS...MSP INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...CRYSTAL AND NEW HOPE.

LAT...LON 4489 9319 4486 9339 4507 9339 4509 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 339DEG 20KT 4504 9334

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
533 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

MNZ060-212300-
HENNEPIN-
533 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HENNEPIN COUNTY...

AT 532 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MINNEAPOLIS...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINNEAPOLIS...BLOOMINGTON...BURNSVILLE...EDINA...ST. LOUIS PARK...
RICHFIELD...SAVAGE...GOLDEN VALLEY...MENDOTA HEIGHTS...AND MSP
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 4499 9334 4500 9323 4486 9319 4481 9325
      4479 9331 4478 9336 4478 9338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 344DEG 14KT 4496 9328

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
549 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

MNZ070-212315-
DAKOTA-
549 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN DAKOTA COUNTY...

AT 548 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FORT SNELLING
STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGAN...BURNSVILLE...APPLE VALLEY...INVER GROVE HEIGHTS...ROSEMOUNT...
MENDOTA HEIGHTS...MSP INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...MENDOTA...SOUTH ST PAUL
AIRPORT AND FORT SNELLING STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 4472 9322 4482 9324 4484 9321 4487 9320
      4489 9317 4490 9314 4478 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 344DEG 14KT 4487 9318

ADL