Areal Flood Warning 6, NWS Twin Cities, MN

482 
WGUS83 KMPX 111028
FLSMPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
528 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

MNC067-111036-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160811T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KANDIYOHI MN-
528 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL KANDIYOHI
COUNTY...

HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST AND OUT OF KANDIYOHI COUNTY.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED SO THE FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
RECEDE. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES AND DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY ROADS THAT HAVE STANDING WATER.

LAT...LON 4527 9525 4531 9477 4507 9475 4502 9476
      4497 9525 4526 9526

$$

JPC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
655 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016

Early morning convection that produced a wide area of 0.50 to 2
inches across portions of central Minnesota, has moved across Lake
Superior with remnant of the outflow boundary, that was
associated with it, across southern Minnesota. Since noon, return
flow has developed and nearly washed out any type of convergence
or signature along this boundary.

Initially, this boundary seem a good area of afternoon convection
would develop. However, it has not materialized as of 1830z. A more
pronounced area of convection that continued to develop this
afternoon was across far southeast North Dakota which will likely be
the main show later this afternoon/evening as it moves along the
best theta-e convergence and upper level support regime in
central/northern Minnesota. There is still an outside chance of
thunderstorms across southern Minnesota due to high CAPEs and
limited CAP. But there remains little in the way of upper level
support until later this evening along with highly developed and
anticipated MCS moving across central Minnesota.

Although CAMS were not helpful this morning, some of the latest runs
do support a complex that was developing across southeast North
Dakota and moving it eastward along the boundary currently in
central Minnesota. This is the best scenario with the current
conditions and satellite imagery. Although there will be some
deviations to the current motion of this complex of thunderstorms,
the overall trends do support likely/categorical percentages in
central Minnesota this evening, with likely percentages trending
south-southeast across east central Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin overnight. This is also where the current Flash Flood
Watch is in effect. This flash flood watch is necessary due to
abnormally high water content in the atmosphere, and the possibility
of training thunderstorms. Severe weather potential in terms of
hail/damaging winds is still possible due to the amount of shear and
instability expected.

By Thursday morning, thunderstorms will likely be concentrated
across eastern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin as the main
complex of the MCSs slowly moves out of the region. However, the
leftover boundaries associated with this complex will lead to
additional thunderstorms during the afternoon as the main front
holds west of MPX CWA. With PWATs values at nearly two inches
through Thursday afternoon, the threat of additional thunderstorms
and heavy rainfall is likely. Not until late Thursday evening does
the main front move through to support a drier scenario for the
upcoming weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday morning through Wednesday) Issued at 345 PM
CDT Wed Aug 10 2016

Quiet weather in the long term as the cold front is forecast to be
passing through the region Friday morning. A few lingering showers
and thunderstorms are possible across the southeast on Friday, but
the northwest should be dry.

Northwest flow will prevail through the weekend into early next
week. Upper level subsidence will result in a surface high
pressure starting over the Midwest on Saturday, which will slowly
translate southeast toward the Great Lakes early in the week.
Expect light winds, clear skies, and seasonable temperatures
during that time period. Southerly return flow will set up on
Monday as this surface high shifts east, and an upper level wave
will move east Monday night which should drive an MCS across
northern MN. Went with blended guidance for both temperatures and
pops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016

Rather ugly next 24 hours is expected for the aviation community.
Potent round of convection which has already dumped copious
amounts of rain in w-central and central MN is taking a
southeasterly turn this evening and will sweep through e-central
MN into w-central WI into the early morning hours. Flight conds
will likely be reduced to IFR conditions (mainly due to
visibility) with MVFR to VFR ceilings. The rain will taper off for
some time mid-to-late morning then is expected to pick up once
again by late tomorrow afternoon, and again containing
thunderstorms. Have tried to time the highest confidence of
thunderstorms with the TEMPO groups but the timing may well
differ, especially with the tomorrow afternoon grouping, so
frequent AMDs may be the rule over the next 24 hours.

KMSP...Have currently advertised that precip may reach MSP by 02z
but this may need to be adjusted earlier given radar trends over
the past hour. There will be one main round this evening followed
by lighter/steadier rains overnight followed by additional
thunderstorms mid-to-late Thursday afternoon. Confidence not solid
on timing so will amend as needed based on radar trends.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for WIZ014-023.

MN...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>076.

&&

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
439 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
111800-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
439 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO
COULD ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS ALSO BECOMING LIKELY SO
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
932 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLOOD            1 S HOPKINS             44.91N 93.41W
08/10/2016                   HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER COVERING ROAD WESTBROOKE-WAY NEAR NINE
            MILE CREEK.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
939 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW RICHFIELD         44.87N 93.32W
08/10/2016  M1.25 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED AT 76 TH AND YORK AVE, EDINA, MN.

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
942 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     FLOOD            1 SSW BLOOMINGTON       44.81N 93.33W
08/10/2016                   HENNEPIN           MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            OLD SHAKOPEE RD AND DREW AVE S, ROAD UNDER
            WATER.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
945 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE OAKDALE           45.00N 92.96W
08/10/2016  M3.50 INCH       WASHINGTON         MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 1
            HOUR.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
947 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE BROOKLYN PARK      45.12N 93.34W
08/10/2016  M1.58 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   PUBLIC

            . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 1
            HOUR.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1004 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 N HUTCHINSON          44.95N 94.37W
08/10/2016  E3.20 INCH       MCLEOD             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 3
            HOURS.

&&

CARLYON