Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Twin Cities, MN

267 
WGUS83 KMPX 171442
FLSMPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
942 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

MNC065-171449-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FA.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160717T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KANABEC MN-
942 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR KANABEC COUNTY...

FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED...AND ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN
DAMAGED DUE TO FLOODING. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO EXPECT DELAYS OR
DETOURS WHEN TRAVELING ON THESE ROADWAYS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED
ANY ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 4598 9310 4598 9314 4574 9316 4574 9350
      4598 9351 4598 9343 4615 9343 4615 9306

$$

AJZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
602 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

The concern in the short range is the thunderstorm potential and
placement tonight across the region.

A developing lee side surface cyclone will push into the Dakotas
today, with what is essentially a dry line extending to the north.
This is a difficult forecast for our area.  Confidence in placement
of thunder remains below average.  Expect thunderstorms to develop
across the Dakotas this afternoon and quickly evolve eastward with
time.  Instability is marginal but shear looks decent.  As we head
into the evening hours, a strong low level jet will get going and
feed right into our forecast area with PWAT values rising to around
1.7 inches tonight.  Expect storms in North Dakota to congeal late
this afternoon and especially this evening as the LLJ increases. The
problem at this stage is the disagreement among the convective
allowing models in the placement and spatial coverage of one or
possibly two separate MCSs in the Upper Midwest.  It appears that
with the strengthening LLJ, and the diurnally driven cells growing
upscale and congealing, the system should pick up speed to the
southeast with time.  Portions of central MN are in a vulnerable
position with high water concerns and the ARW/NMM solutions bring a
fast moving cluster through these areas overnight.  With the speed
of the system increasing to 40 knots (possibly 50 knots), at least
it will likely be moving fast enough to limit the total qpf
potential for most areas in the 1-3" range.  With the lower than
normal confidence in exact placement of storm clusters, continued
likely POPs across most of the area but will need to see how things
are lining up today before getting too aggressive with maximizing
POPs and raising QPF. The primary threats with the storms will be
torrential rainfall and downburst winds.

Otherwise, today will be a partly cloudy in the morning with highs
topping out in the 80s.  We'll see high level clouds from the
upstream convection push in quickly this afternoon and early
evening.  if the system does become forward propagating, most if not
all of the precip will have moved off to the east by Sunday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

The MCS that will be impacting the area late tonight should be
exiting western Wisconsin early Sunday morning. Depending on how
this complex evolves, that may be the end of the thunder threat
for the rest of the day if it can scour out the atmosphere
enough. If the MCS isn't as organized as some models would
indicate, there may be redevelopment across southern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin along the cold front.

The front will sweep through later Sunday afternoon with cooler
and less humid conditions to follow Monday as high pressure drifts
southeast across the Great Lakes. The high will settle over the
southern Great Lakes Tuesday and will allow a southerly flow to
become established. Very tight clustering in the GEFS guidance
leads to high confidence in temperatures through Tuesday.
Operational GFS remains the coldest member of the ensemble and was
discarded. Highs area wide will be in the mid to upper 80s
Tuesday.

As the dome of hot air approaches Tuesday night, it may kick off
some thunderstorms so long as the low level thermal ridge and
capping hasn't yet arrived. Models have been going back and forth
with areal extent of the activity, with the GEM quite bullish with
an MCS type feature lingering through Wednesday. The EC has
trended toward the drier GFS with the 00Z run. Only a few of the
GEFS members show anything. Did keep schc pops in, but am not
buying into a widespread event.

That leads into the arrival of the heat Wednesday. Models are a
bit more bullish in bringing the hot air in Wednesday and have
sped up the timing a bit back to what it was a couple nights ago.
925 mb temps rise quickly to 26C to 29C Wednesday afternoon, which
would agree with the majority of the GEFS members in the 90-100
range. The heat continues to build for Thursday which is
expected to be the hottest day of the stretch. Highs in the mid
90s to low 100s and dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s will
bring heat indices up into the 100 to 110 degree range area wide.
These highs are in contrast to raw surface temps on all the
models which are 5 to 10 degrees cooler. This is due to exceedingly
high dew points in the lower 80s. Think we will mix a bit deeper
than that would indicate, so continued with the warmer and
slightly drier scenario. Regardless, heat indices will meet
Excessive Heat Warning criteria across most of the area Wednesday
and Thursday and such headlines will likely be posted in a couple
days. There are some hints at a cool front dropping south Thursday
night. This should knock back some of the most intense heat for
Friday if it materializes.

MEX and EC MOS have been improving as the event approaches, not a
surprise given its bias toward climatology at further ranges.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Today will be quiet during the day locally, with widespread VFR
conditions under partly cloudy skies. Winds will gradually
increase toward 10kts from the south. The main weather concern
comes this evening through the overnight when a large thunderstorm
complex looks to roll through the region. Timing forecast for
thunder is lower than normal confidence.

KMSP...Current thinking on tonight is storms arrive between
05-07Z, but stay tuned for updates.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Chance MVFR/TSRA early. Wind W at 10kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind N at 5kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind S at 10g15kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
321 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
170830-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
321 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING AND WILL
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. THE RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS
WILL INCREASE FOR THOSE OUTDOORS FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.