Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
632 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Starting off the morning with a mix of low and high
based cigs. Winds light from the southeast with patchy and light early
am br lowering vsbys to mvfr categories in a few areas over the
interior. Vsby begins to improve after daybreak. The passage of any
shra/tsra today brings a brief occurrence of mvfr cigs and vsbys.
Southeast winds 10 to 15 kts. Otherwise, vfr cigs and vsby expected
today. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...On the weather maps this
morning, a mid-level Bermuda ridge of high pressure was stretching
west into the Mid and Lower MS River Valley. Southwest of the high
level ridge, an upper level, inverted trough axis from the southeast
Gulf to central FL was lifting northwest. Radar shows isolated
showers developing over the marine area. These were advancing north
northwest and will bring some wet weather to the coastal zones this
morning. At the surface, a quasi-stationary surface frontal zone was
draped from the eastern Great Lakes, southwest across east TX. The
low pressure area that has been responsible for recent disastrous
flooding over LA is beginning to merge and phase with the frontal
zone.

Upper level, inverted trof axis over the southeast Gulf is forecast
to continue lifting northwest today and begins to deamplify by
daybreak Monday AM. A diurnal convective pattern is forecast today
and tonight with isolated to scattered storms developing during the
day today as the atmosphere destabilizes and then decrease in
coverage going into the night as airmass stabilizes. Surface high
pressure nosing west into the southeast US maintains a light
southeast flow this period. Highs today in the mid to upper 80s
southwest zones to the lower half of the 90s over the northeast
zones. Very little change in night-time lows, ranging from 72 to 76
along and north of I-10, while closer to 80 near the beaches. /10

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...An upper level ridge of
high pressure extending from the western Atlantic Ocean over the
southeast conus will be the dominate upper level feature through the
short term. Meanwhile surface ridge will remain in place across the
southeast states maintaining a light south to southeast surface wind
flow. Precipitable water values across the region will remain between
1.5 and 2 inches. A mix of sun and clouds will occur on both Monday
and Tuesday, with the diurnal convective pattern persisting. Expect
mainly scattered coverage during the daytime hours and isolated
coverage to rain-free conditions overnight through the short term.

High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will range from 88 to 93
degrees inland area with mid 80s along the beaches. Low temperatures
both nights will range from 72 to 77 degrees inland area with upper
70s along the beaches. /22

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The upper level ridge of high
pressure extending from the western Atlantic Ocean over the southeast
conus will weaken and shift south through the long term as a slow
moving upper level shortwave over the Great Lakes and Ohio River
Valley regions advances eastward. This upper shortwave is expected
to progress across the northeastern conus and mid-atlantic states
through the end of the workweek. Meanwhile the surface ridge
extending from the western Atlantic across the southeast will weaken
and shift southward as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will occur each day through the extended as the high pressure
weakens across the region, with isolated to scattered coverage at
night. High temperatures each day will range from 87 to 92 degrees
inland area with mid 80s along the beaches. Low temperatures each
night will range from 72 to 77 degrees inland area with upper 70s
along the beaches. /22

MARINE...Surface high pressure extending west into the southeast
US maintains a southeast component of flow that will be light, to
moderate at times. Winds, waves and seas will be locally higher in
and near the passage of isolated to scattered marine storms. /10

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
553 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-151200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
553 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-151200-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
553 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS...SEAS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANY STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDS...SEAS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VISIBILITY
REDUCING HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANY
STRONGER STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

MSZ067-075-076-141615-
PERRY MS-WAYNE MS-GREENE MS-
1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...WAYNE...NORTHERN GREENE AND NORTHERN PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL
1115 AM CDT...

AT 1049 AM CDT...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MOSELLE TO NEAR LEAKESVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT
30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...LEAKESVILLE...CLARA AND BUCKATUNNA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3143 8894 3178 8894 3165 8850 3113 8852
      3137 8915 3143 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1549Z 182DEG 24KT 3147 8923 3123 8860