Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
329 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...An upper high situated over
the Southern Plains remains stationary through Wednesday. A
shortwave over the area heads south over the Gulf, with the tsra
activity weakening though the late afternoon and evening hours. With
previous evenings, the activity has been lasting longer in the
evening than just daytime instability driven tsra due to the exiting
weakness, so have held on to the rain until midnight, before
shifting it offshore as a land breeze sets up. For temps, with
abundant cloud debris hanging on overnight along with help from the
upper high over the Southern Plains, have kept temps a bit above
seasonal, even with the general flow becoming offshore. Lows tonight
generally in the mid 70s, upper 70s to around 80 along the coast.

Wednesday, another shortwave rotates south around the east side of
the upper ridge, helping to create another day of above seasonal
chances of shra/tsra. Same pattern, different day, activity starting
south of the coast, then developing inland as the day progresses.
Even with the above seasonal chance of rain, subsidence from the
plains upper ridge works with heating during the morning for most of
the fa to see high temps above seasonal. highs generally in the low
to mid 90s expected. /16

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...The central Gulf
coast looks to remain between two large scale pressure systems. The
first is a deep layer ridge axis positioned over TX, while a trof
axis sinks southeast across the Appalachians. Considering the
placement of these features, the continued passage of mid-level
impulses caught up in the mean north-northwesterly deep layer flow is
favored. These features bring modest ascent and coupled with
persistently high atmospheric moisture with pwats around 2 inches,
the stage is set for a continuation in the unsettled weather pattern
with above normal daily rain chances at a general 40 to 60% range.
Storms have had a history of dropping locally heavy rains, which have
lead to mainly nuisance type, isolated occurrences of flooding in
some areas. See no reason to think storms in the short term will be
any different. Storm motion generally from north to south, but will
also be dependent on mesoscale processes such as position and
movement of intersecting, rain-cooled outflow boundaries.

Away from the cooling effects of storms, highest heat indices to
range from 102 to 107 degrees. Highs in the lower to mid 90s interior
and upper 80s to lower 90s coast. Nights sticky, with lows in the mid
70s interior to close to 80 at the beaches. /10

.SPECIAL FEATURE...Tropical Storm Earl is forecast by the National
Hurricane center (NHC) to move inland over Belize late Wed night,
then weaken as the center crosses the Yucatan Peninsula Thu. A
continued westward motion continues thereafter into the day Fri over
the southern reaches of the Bay of Campeche. For more information
regarding Tropical Storm Earl, refer to the latest products from the
NHC. /10

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Overall, a similar pattern, as
mentioned in the short term section, carries over into the weekend.
By Mon and Tue, the 02.12Z Operational GFS and ECMWF are beginning to
converge somewhat on a solution although there still are differences.
Both of the global models show an upper level low cutting off over
the eastern Gulf, but differ with respect to their low level
solutions/surface trof, and/or low and timing. Both models do
slide a surface trof/weak low west northwest anywhere from the
northeast Gulf coast to the MS Sound by Tue. It must be noted that
the ECMWF has shown more run to run consistency on this evolving
pattern early next week and if verifies, a much more wet pattern
could very well be in the cards. Stay tuned.

Little change in highs and lows. /10

&&

.MARINE...A deepening trough along the East Coast has shifted a
surface ridge southward over the northern Gulf. This shifts the
more general southeast to southerly flow to southwest, plus or
minus, but with the ridge remaining weakly organized, am expecting
the flow to remain generally light through the period, with a
daytime onshore, night time offshore regime in evidence. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  93  76  92 /  30  60  20  60
Pensacola   77  91  78  91 /  30  50  30  60
Destin      78  90  79  89 /  30  50  40  60
Evergreen   75  93  74  93 /  30  60  30  50
Waynesboro  74  93  75  95 /  30  50  20  50
Camden      74  93  75  94 /  30  60  20  50
Crestview   73  93  74  93 /  30  70  40  60

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
446 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-030945-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
446 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-030945-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
446 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THIS MORNING. THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1222 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

ALZ263-265-021800-
MOBILE CENTRAL AL-MOBILE COASTAL AL-
1222 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SOUTH
CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1221 PM CDT...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THEODORE.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE AND I10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3054 8800 3040 8810 3051 8824 3065 8813
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 137DEG 3KT 3053 8811

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
137 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

ALZ057-058-060-021915-
BUTLER AL-CRENSHAW AL-COVINGTON AL-
137 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN CRENSHAW...NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN
BUTLER COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 136 PM CDT...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
RUTLEDGE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF LUVERNE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRANTLEY...RUTLEDGE...DOZIER AND GANTT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 8649 3176 8654 3180 8633 3147 8619
      3144 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 347DEG 17KT 3171 8642

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
153 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

ALZ261-263-021945-
MOBILE INLAND AL-MOBILE CENTRAL AL-
153 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WEST
CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 153 PM CDT...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SEMMES...OR
8 MILES WEST OF CHICKASAW...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TANNER WILLIAMS...SEMMES...I65 AND I165...WILMER AND I65 AND AL 158.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3090 8812 3071 8808 3066 8839 3087 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 078DEG 8KT 3079 8822

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
252 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

ALZ052-261-MSZ076-022030-
MOBILE INLAND AL-WASHINGTON AL-GREENE MS-
252 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND EAST CENTRAL GREENE
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 252 PM CDT...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DEER PARK...
OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF CITRONELLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CITRONELLE...DEER PARK AND GULFCREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3128 8848 3133 8828 3100 8809 3091 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 341DEG 16KT 3124 8835

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

ALZ055-022100-
MONROE AL-
310 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SOUTH
CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 310 PM CDT...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF
MONROEVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONROEVILLE...FRISCO CITY AND EXCEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 8739 3138 8731 3135 8735 3129 8756
      3144 8757 3148 8756 3149 8758 3154 8758
      3155 8757 3162 8757
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 351DEG 18KT 3156 8748

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

ALZ261-263-MSZ076-079-022115-
MOBILE INLAND AL-MOBILE CENTRAL AL-GREENE MS-GEORGE MS-
337 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...NORTHEASTERN GEORGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 336 PM CDT...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GULFCREST...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CITRONELLE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CITRONELLE...GULFCREST...SEMMES AND WILMER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3080 8853 3112 8843 3111 8843 3111 8833
      3112 8833 3111 8822 3075 8826
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 007DEG 20KT 3105 8834