Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...See updated information below.

&&

.UPDATE...did a quick update to the current zone forecast mainly to
adjust for a slightly higher pops over lower sections of the
forecast area later this afternoon and this evening. 32/ee

&&

.MARINE...current marine update was to adjust for better winds
mostly over the near shore waters including all inland bays and
sounds due to afternoon heating and seabreeze circulations. also kept
scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the coastal
waters of al and nwfl out to 20 nm until mid afternoon. 32/ee

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...vfr to mvfr cigs and visibilities through 01.18z.
lower cigs and visibilities mainly in and around isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring this afternoon through
early this evening then reforming near the coast and offshore late
tonight and early mon shifting inland by mid to late morning. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail early this morning. IFR/MVFR
conditions will again develop in and around scattered showers and
thunderstorms late this morning through the afternoon hours. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Very little change in the overall
pattern across the Gulf coast today as a weakness in the upper ridge
remains across the southeast states. This weakness combined with plenty
of deep layer moisture (PW values 2+ inches) and daytime heating will
lead to scattered showers and storms developing developing near the
coast this morning, spreading inland through the afternoon. In addition,
an outflow boundary from a decaying convective complex will move into
the area later this morning. This will likely serve as a focal point
for convective development. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and
very heavy rain will be the main threat. A few strong storms may produce
strong winds up to 40 mph. Highs will generally be in the low 90s inland
to upper 80s near the coast. Tonight lows will fall into the mid 70s
inland to near 80 along the coast. 13/JC

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/....Still very little
change in sensible weather expected Monday through Tuesday night.
Weakness aloft continues through Monday night then gradual ridging
begins to build in from the west Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Precipitable Water values remain in the 2 inch (or slightly higher)
range through the period. At the surface...high pressure will
continue to ridge into the region from the east...but gradually drift
south to where axis is over the northern Gulf of Mexico with a weak
trof/front moving into interior portions of Alabama. All of this
results in a continuation of diurnal scattered showers and
thunderstorms...near the coast and over the Gulf waters overnight
and early morning hours and then over interior locations afternoon
and early evening hours. Daytime highs in the lower 90s inland and
around 90 at the coast...with overnight lows ranging from mid 70s
inland to upper 70s coastal. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Models indicate that ridging...
surface and aloft rebuilds over the region during the long term period.
Little change in sensible weather with scattered diurnal showers and
storms continuing. High temps continue in the 90s and low temps in
the 70s. Note: We continue to monitor the evolution of the two
tropical disturbances in the Atlantic. guidance from the National
Hurricane Center as well as global forecast models indicate the
possibility of tropical development with the system approaching the
Lesser Antilles this morning...perhaps affecting the southern or
western Gulf by the end of this week. At this time...we are not
anticipating any impacts locally but things could change so we will
continue to watch this closely. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for the latest updates. 12/DS

MARINE...High pressure remains in place across the eastern and
north central Gulf through the week. A light south to southwest wind
flow is expected to prevail through early next week. Winds and seas
will be higher in and around isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the forecast period. 13/JC

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-010915-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
409 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-010915-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
409 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COST THIS
MORNING. THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

ALZ262-FLZ201-312115-
BALDWIN INLAND AL-ESCAMBIA INLAND FL-
337 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
BALDWIN AND WESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 335 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM BAY MINETTE TO
DAPHNE AND EASTWARD...DRIFTING EAST AT 5 MPH OR LESS.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAY MINETTE...DAPHNE AND LOXLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3084 8782 3100 8782 3106 8762 3100 8762
      3100 8760 3079 8760 3079 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 270DEG 2KT 3092 8774

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
338 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

ALZ262-FLZ201-312115-
BALDWIN INLAND AL-ESCAMBIA INLAND FL-
338 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
BALDWIN AND WESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 335 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM BAY MINETTE TO
DAPHNE AND EASTWARD...DRIFTING EAST AT 5 MPH OR LESS.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAY MINETTE...DAPHNE AND LOXLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3084 8782 3100 8782 3106 8762 3100 8762
      3100 8760 3079 8760 3079 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 270DEG 2KT 3092 8774

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

MSZ075-078-312200-
STONE MS-PERRY MS-
355 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...SOUTHWESTERN PERRY AND STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 354 PM CDT...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR WEST HATTIESBURG TO NEAR LYMAN. THESE STORMS WERE
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH OR LESS.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WIGGINS...PERKINSTON AND MCHENRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8914 3121 8915 3121 8905 3068 8896
      3068 8924 3065 8924 3065 8929 3087 8934
      3091 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 272DEG 4KT 3125 8941 3053 8916