Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...A shortwave trough continues
to advance across MS/AL this afternoon, which has aided in the
development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over
interior portions of southeast MS and southwest and south central
AL. A few storms have been strong at times over the interior, with
one that pulsed to severe levels just northwest of Thomasville, AL.
The increased convective coverage and associated cloud cover has
allowed temperatures to cool off into the upper 70s to mid 80s over
northern portions of the CWA. Outside of convection, temperatures
have warmed into the lower to mid 90s, with heat indices in the 100-
105 range, and isolated occurrences around 109 in the typical spots
near the immediate coast. The WRF-ARW, HRRR, and the GFS continue to
hint that additional scattered thunderstorms may develop farther
southward along outflow and the instability axis where 2000-3000
J/KG of MLCAPE remain available. We will keep POPs highest over
interior southwest and south central AL through the remainder of the
afternoon, with at least 30-40% chance in the forecast down to the
coast.

A series of shortwave troughs will continue to move eastward across
the Tennessee Valley and a good portion of MS/AL through Wednesday.
Enough lift along the trough axis may be available to aid in a few
additional showers and thunderstorms over the interior tonight, and
will keep a slight chance in the forecast generally north of the
highway 84 corridor. Other isolated showers and storms could develop
near the coast and offshore late. Precipitable water values remain
between 1.75 and 2.0" Wednesday with values localized near the
seabreeze. Expect at least scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop around the region again, and have POPs in the 30-40% range
over the interior. Another hot and humid day can otherwise be
expected with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. Heat
indices are mostly expected to top out around 105 across much of the
region. Could see some isolated instances of heat indices between
107-110. Given the isolated nature of higher heat indices, have
decided to hold off with Heat Advisory issuance across our area, but
next shifts will want to monitor closely. Will continue to mention
the elevated heat indices in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).
/21

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...The forecast area
remains under a deep layer ridge extending from the western Atlantic
across the southern states. A fluctuation in pwat values is forecast
during the short term. 1.6 to 1.8 inches Wed night/Thu...tapering
off to between 1.3 to 1.5 inches over the land zones Thu night...recovering
again to between 1.6 and 1.8 inches during the day Fri. Daytime
heating and instability along with weak lift offered by the
seabreeze will lead to at least a slight chance of daily storms. A
few of which could become briefly strong to marginally severe with
any of these containing a damaging wind threat. Hot and humid
conditions persist with daytime highs lifting into the mid to upper
90s over the interior with lower 90s near the coast. These
temperatures when combined with surface based dewpoints in the lower
to mid 70s result in heat index values lifting to between 103 and 107
degrees on Thu for much of the area. Latest gridded data shows some
areas...especially closer to area rivers...seeing heat indices near
108 degrees. Will continue to highlight the elevated heat indices in
the HWO. Very muggy conditions are expected each night with lows in
the mid 70s inland to 78 to 82 along the coast. /10

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Typical summer pattern expected
through the extended range. Temps will remain hot each day with
highs in the mid 90s inland to around 90 near the coast.
Meanwhile...overnight conditions continue to remain very muggy. Will
continue with a diurnal rain chance pattern with scattered coverages
of storms each day and lower coverages each night. /10

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will continue to extend from the western
Atlantic through the northern Gulf through the remainder of the
week. A light to moderate southwesterly wind flow will persist over
the marine area through the forecast period. Seas remain low. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  93  78  94 /  20  30  20  20
Pensacola   80  94  81  94 /  20  20  10  20
Destin      83  92  83  91 /  20  20  10  20
Evergreen   75  94  75  98 /  20  30  20  20
Waynesboro  76  95  76  96 /  20  30  20  10
Camden      76  94  76  98 /  20  40  20  10
Crestview   76  95  75  96 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-062100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION...AND
LOCALIZED HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 105 AND 108 IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA GULF
BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HEAT INDICES WILL TREND
UPWARD TO AROUND 105 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY REACHING IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-062100-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.