Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
325 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through at least the early
evening hours as an unstable airmass continues. Once heating
decreases this evening, instability levels will decrease and
thunderstorms will weaken. A shortwave will move through the
northwest flow aloft on Tuesday, sending a cold front into the
southeastern states during the day. Plenty of deep layer moisture and
instability ahead of the front will allow for the development of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday morning
through the afternoon. Severe storms are not expected, however an
isolated storms may produce gusty winds. Heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning will be the primary threats.

The front will sink southward toward the coast Tuesday night with
continued chances of showers and thunderstorms. Lows tonight will
fall into the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to around 90. /13

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...

A frontolysising cold front is still expected to push southward to
just off the coast Tuesday night. Most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity will move southward with the front with the most active
convection occurring over the Gulf and near the coast. On
Wednesday...the essentially washed out frontal boundary slowly moves
northward as a trough of low pressure acting as a trigger for
thunderstorms and shower development Wednesday. Expect most of the
convective activity to occur over our coastal counties where PWATs
will still be around 2 inches...precipitable water amounts dry out to
close to and 1.25 inch over our northern counties. The surface trough
will vacillate across the are through Thursday night...shifting
north during the day and south near the coast overnight.
Aloft...northerly flow on the back side of the longwave trough will
bring brief air into the area. PWATs drop to less than an inch over
interior counties and as low as 1.25 inches closer to the
coast...well below climatological norms. The threat of severe weather
should remain on the low end of the risk spectrum during this times.

Daily average temperature's are expected to trend near to a little
cooler than climatological norms. /08

.LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...The upper level longwave trough
over the Eastern States begins to fill and the Bermuda high rebuilds
into the area. PWATs trend near normal or higher, humidity increases
and afternoon heat indices climb into the low 100s. A more or less
typical diurnal convective cycle develops. /08

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will remain in place over the marine area
through the week. A light onshore flow will persist each day,
becoming enhanced during the afternoon. Little change in seas is
expected through the period. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
can be expected each day through the week. A few storms could
produce strong wind wind gusts, higher waves and frequent
lightning. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  90  72  89 /  40  70  40  30
Pensacola   76  89  76  87 /  30  60  40  40
Destin      78  87  77  85 /  30  50  30  40
Evergreen   73  91  72  89 /  50  60  40  30
Waynesboro  73  90  71  90 /  50  70  40  20
Camden      74  89  73  92 /  40  70  30  20
Crestview   74  92  73  90 /  30  60  40  30

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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