Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1252 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR generally prevails across the region this
afternoon with scattered to broken cumulus deck bases between 4-6 kft
AGL. Isolated to scattered TSRA will develop around the area this
afternoon, with the best coverage along the seabreeze over southern
portions of the area. Will keep VCTS mention in at KMOB/KBFM/KPNS and
closely monitor trends through the afternoon. Brief strong and
gusty/erratic winds and visibility reductions due to heavy rain will
be possible with convection. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1104 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...The ongoing forecast for this Memorial Day looks reasonable
and no significant changes are needed. Another hot day is expected as
an upper level ridge will continue to stretch from the western Gulf
of Mexico through AL and the northwest FL Panhandle. Temperatures at
10 AM had already warmed into the upper 80s to around 90 across much
of the region, and highs look on track to reach the lower to mid 90s
inland, and around 90 near the beaches. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon, with the best
coverage focused over southern portions of the area along the
seabreeze. Like yesterday, a couple of strong storms with brief
strong wind gusts over 40 mph, frequent lightning and brief heavy
rainfall will be possible given MLCAPE values around 1500 J/KG and
precipitable water values around 1.5 inches in the vicinity of the
seabreeze. Local checklist parameters generally reveal a low to
borderline moderate potential of microbursts this afternoon. /21

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
158 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-311900-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
158 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-311900-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
158 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
213 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

ALZ264-266-FLZ201>206-302000-
BALDWIN CENTRAL AL-BALDWIN COASTAL AL-ESCAMBIA COASTAL FL-
SANTA ROSA COASTAL FL-SANTA ROSA INLAND FL-ESCAMBIA INLAND FL-
OKALOOSA INLAND FL-OKALOOSA COASTAL FL-
213 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN...SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA...SOUTHERN SANTA ROSA
AND SOUTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 209 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LILLIAN TO NEAR NAVARRE TO NEAR WRIGHT...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON
BEACH...ENSLEY...WARRINGTON...NICEVILLE...GONZALEZ...EGLIN AFB...PACE...
MILTON...VALPARAISO...GULF BREEZE...GOULDING...MARY ESTHER...BAGDAD...LAKE
LORRAINE AND OCEAN CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3034 8759 3070 8758 3059 8646 3038 8652
      3035 8666 3030 8719
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 304DEG 9KT 3051 8751 3048 8689 3049 8661