Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
416 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...A DIFFLUENT LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS/NE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL WITHIN THIS
REGIME. THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL...TO 2000-
2500 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40
KNOTS ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
AL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAKER SHEAR OVER THE NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE EASTWARD WITHIN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS A MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA
GIVEN THE MLCAPE VALUES...BUT IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

A MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE MAY EXPERIENCE A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER REMNANT CONVECTION DIMINISHES...BUT WILL
AT LEAST LEAVE IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THEN IN AGREEMENT THAT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS
SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWFA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SIGNALING
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER 2-3 AM OVER SOUTHEAST
MS...WITH PERHAPS DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTHWEST AL PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW LOCALLY STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN MLCAPE
VALUES REMAINING AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 25-35 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN
LIMITED/MARGINAL OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME
ORIENTED NEAR THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN A
40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BETTER INSTABILITY MAY SET UP OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND
SOUTHWEST AL THURSDAY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG PER THE
LATEST NAM-12...WITH VALUES MUCH LOWER NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE LOCATED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS 30-35
KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
HIGHS SHOULD OTHERWISE RANGE FROM 80-85. /21

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AND
HEATING WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW
70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AS IS THE CASE
LATE IN THE SPRING...IT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
/13

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  83  69  85 /  40  50  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  82  70  83 /  30  50  20  20
DESTIN      71  80  72  81 /  20  50  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  85  65  88 /  50  50  30  40
WAYNESBORO  68  85  66  85 /  50  40  20  40
CAMDEN      68  83  65  87 /  50  50  20  30
CRESTVIEW   68  85  68  88 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
505 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-282215-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
505 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-282215-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
505 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...
SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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