Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
351 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...A MEDIUM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES
OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN THREE-FOURTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
ONE INCH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET AROUND 95 KNOTS OVER INDIANA WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO AROUND 65 KNOTS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WEAKENING AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES HOLDING STEADY AROUND 6.4C/KM...THE MAIN
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WILL RELY OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING DEPENDENT
UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...AND THE HIGHEST MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL
OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH THESE TWO FEATURES OUT OF PHASE
THE OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...BUT
STRONG STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
AROUND ONE-HALF INCH...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY A STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH OF RAIN OR MORE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /22

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. /13

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
RIDGE REBUILDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS AND LOW
RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL START IN THE LOW 80S THEN WARM INTO THE MID
80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO TREND UPWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. /13

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS FROM WEST
TO EAST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND
FLOW LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  78  59  80 /  60  50  20   0
PENSACOLA   66  77  62  79 /  50  50  20   0
DESTIN      66  75  64  76 /  40  50  20   0
EVERGREEN   62  79  57  80 /  50  70  20   0
WAYNESBORO  62  79  55  80 /  60  40  10   0
CAMDEN      62  78  57  79 /  60  60  20   0
CRESTVIEW   62  79  59  81 /  40  60  20   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
535 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-221045-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
535 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER OR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER OR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-221045-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
535 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
604 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

ALZ052-220000-
WASHINGTON AL-
604 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 603 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WAGARVILLE...OR 7 MILES EAST OF CHATOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAINT STEPHENS...WAGARVILLE AND LEROY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 8809 3162 8807 3160 8807 3159 8806
      3158 8803 3157 8802 3157 8804 3154 8799
      3147 8791 3145 8791 3144 8793 3144 8792
      3142 8791 3132 8812 3145 8826
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 227DEG 8KT 3144 8813

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
645 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

ALZ052-053-220045-
CLARKE AL-WASHINGTON AL-
645 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 645 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WAGARVILLE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSON...WAGARVILLE AND LEROY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3141 8769 3140 8771 3137 8773 3134 8772
      3133 8775 3136 8775 3137 8776 3136 8777
      3135 8777 3133 8779 3132 8779 3131 8805
      3149 8808 3159 8773
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 260DEG 9KT 3142 8799