Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...DROPPING TO LOW END MVFR WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE AS
AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FA. ALSO IN THE FORECAST IS A LINE
OF TSRA WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS...THEN
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS WIND FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW...TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM WILL RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO ANDALUSIA ALABAMA...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. EXPECT ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH SOUTH
OF THIS LINE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...RANGING FROM 62 TO 67
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES.

/22

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED
UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER MEANDERS EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE STALLING OVER THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY JUNCTURE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS SAGGED SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA STALLS ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...ALONG WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY
SWIRLING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN
TO THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND COMES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVE EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE NOW STALLED UPPER SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
FRIDAY.

WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING PROBLEMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT NOT NON-
EXISTENT....SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH PERIOD. COMBINED
WITH PRECIP H20 LEVELS RISING...FEEL EACH ROUND WILL BRING AN INCH OR
TWO OF ADDITIONAL RAIN. AM NOT GOING TO RAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FLAG ATTM...BUT DO FEEL IT IS WISE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK REMAIN AT OR BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTH...TO LOW TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

/16

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IN THE EXTENDED...GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERING EASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST...UNTIL IT
GETS CAUGHT UP IN ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OFF THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE WEAKENING MISSISSIPPI SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING BACK A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRY THE FA OUT...BUT KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS
HIGH...AND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP OVER/ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...TEMPS RISE TO AROUND TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.

/16

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
AND ALONG THE FRONT MOSTLY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
623 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121130-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
623 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE MAIN THREATS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND
POSSIBLY LATER IN THE WEEK.

A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MOSTLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-121130-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
623 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT CAN WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
ACROSS REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.

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