Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
140 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES TO ADD SEVERE WEATHER WATCH 46 THROUGH 8 PM
CDT. ADDED SOME SEVERE STORMS IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
WATCH. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS FOR
KPNS ALONG WITH TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...IMPROVING TO VFR
BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE KMOB AND KBFM TAFS WITH VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS AS CONVECTION FLARES UP ALONG A SEABREEZE PUSHING
INLAND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
LIFR/IFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT AND PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE LAND
ZONES THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER AIR MAPS THIS MORNING SHOW A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW AT HIGH LEVELS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN HIGH LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN TANDEM WITH FRONTAL ASCENT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.35 INCHES PER
17.12 UTC SOUNDINGS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...IS SOME 155 TO
180% OF NORMAL. WITH THE FRONT ALIGNED WITHIN THIS ZONE...ACTIVE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED COVERAGE IS SUPPORTED BY THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS.

SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD VERY WELL INCREASE TO SEVERE
LEVELS WITH MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL GIVEN LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS LESS THAN 9000 FT. FORECASTERS HAVE NOTICED SPLITTING/DEVIANT
STORM MOTIONS WITH THIS MORNING'S ISOLATED STORMS. SOME LIFTING UP TO
THE NORTHEAST AND OTHERS DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT SOME 40 TO 45
MPH. DUE TO THE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS...FORECASTERS
MAINTAIN A LIMITED THREAT LEVEL FOR NOW. BUT...IF RADAR TRENDS BEGIN
TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE UPSTREAM AND AN UPTICK IN
WARNINGS OR IF A WATCH IS ISSUED...THE THREAT LEVEL WILL BE UPGRADED
TO ELEVATED. STAY TUNED. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY
ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF
FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. IF STRONG STORMS DEVELOP...THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80S. COASTAL AREAS
REMAIN COOLER DUE TO THE COOLER WATER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. /13

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH AN ELONGATED EAST-
WEST ORIENTED UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND INTERIOR
PLAINS. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND EVOLVES
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF SWEEPING INTO THE EASTERN STATES
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING SHIFTS INLAND DURING THE DAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF SURFACE
WAVES DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS AND BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES WILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING POPS ON SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EVOLVING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN LEADS TO THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...AND DRIVES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ON FRIDAY...AND
WHILE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW...WET BULB ZERO VALUES NEAR
10.5 KFT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SMALL HAIL AND SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS WHICH LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE COAST TO
0.5-1.0 INCHES WELL INLAND...AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO
STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...THEN TRENDING COOLER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /29

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
LEAVES A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN TREND WARMER TO THE LOWER/MID 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO
NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST...THEN LIKEWISE TREND WARMER TO THE LOWER
50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WITH A SURFACE FRONT NEARBY
RESULTS IN LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEA STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. VISIBILITY COULD BE
QUICKLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE WITH THE PASSAGE OF HEAVIER
RAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
506 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-181015-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
506 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING....SEE THE LATEST
RIVER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS.

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING....SEE THE LATEST
RIVER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-181015-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
506 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

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