Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
410 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...High Rain Chances Orlando/Canaveral North Today With Gusty
Winds Too...
...Tropical Storm Warning in Effect for Coastal Waters of Volusia
County...

Today...
Hermine will be just north of the Georgia/Florida line at 12z and
accelerating to the northeast. A high moisture band will trail
back into the local area with the greatest amounts over the north
half, where the GFS still shows strong 925mb winds of 40-45 knots.

A band of convection will be ongoing with strong wind gusts possible
starting off the morning across north/central sections. Low-mid
level flow will veer to the southwest during the afternoon and be
nearly parallel to the convective band, so with some diurnal
instability enhancement, training echoes may set up a heavy rain
threat as convection back builds with time. However, the GFS does
not generate very much precip across east central Florida, and
the HRRR concentrates precip in the weakening convective band with
very little afternoon convection. The ECMWF keeps the higher
amounts near the west coast, which is often the case with this
kind of setup. Therefore, once the morning rainband diminishes,
east central Florida may be stabilized/clouded over during the
afternoon so excessive rainfall chances look low.

Will continue likely PoPs across the north. MOS PoPs in far
southeast sections are very low, around 10 percent as peripheral
subsidence associated with Hermine is already affecting that area.
Will still have a slight chance for showers/storms there.

Some sites were already gusting over 30 mph in the north early this
morning and with low level wind fields forecast quite strong into
afternoon, have expanded the wind advisory to include Orange,
Seminole, north Brevard and all of Lake county.

Tonight...
With the high moisture band lingering over central
Florida, will keep chance PoPs across the north and slight chance
in central sections, which is close to the GFS MOS values.

Sat-Sun...
Hermine will continue to pull away from FL toward the Mid-
Atlantic Seaboard by Sat morn to offshore of the DelMarVa
peninsula by Sun morn. A band of tropical moisture and weak sfc
trough will remain in its wake and stretch across the north half
of the FL peninsula while the Atlantic ridge axis endeavors to re-
emerge across south FL. These synoptic features will team to
promote local southwest winds Sat, except for southerly winds
along the Space and Treasure Coasts during the afternoon. A
distribution of rainfall chances will show a north to south
gradient 50-60 percent north of a XMR-TBW line and 30-40 percent
south with a chance for heavy rain. For Sun, developing
southeasterlies will overtake the flow pattern while the lingering
moisture ribbon modulates the rain chances similar to Sat. Max
Temps U80s/L90s with Min Temps in the M70s.

Mon-Thu...
GFS/ECMWF Models in general agreement to have Hermine loiter
offshore of the NJ coast much of the week. With the system well
away from FL, deep layer moisture will begin to gradually thin
along with an entrenching onshore low level wind flow. POPs near
climo to start the period dialing back to below climo by later in
the period. The onshore flow will tend to bring a bit of an inland
skew, but dependency resides with the extent of atmospheric
drying. Max Temps U80s/L90s and Min Temps M70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Band of numerous SHRA and isolated TSRA will move across the
northern terminals through the morning.   Widespread MVFR conditions
with occasional IFR will occur at most of the terminals from KISM-
KMCO-KTIX northward.  Gusty winds to around 30 knots will also
occur outside convection and be locally higher in squalls. It
will be breezy south of there too but peak gusts should be closer
to 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Strong south/southwest winds behind departing
Hermine will produce hazardous boating conditions, but winds will
slowly diminish during the afternoon and evening. Will maintain
the Tropical Storm Warning for the the far north and Small Craft
Advisory for the rest of the waters, but adjustments to the end
times may be necessary in later updates. The less then favorable
boating conditions will be accompanied by scattered to numerous
offshore moving squalls and isolated storms, especially from the
Cape northward.

Holiday Weekend...With Hermine pulling well away from the area,
boating conditions will be allowed to further improve over much of
the weekend with seas diminishing to 2-3 feet during Sat into Sun,
but up to 4 feet well offshore Mon. A weak sfc trough over north
FL Sat will give way to the emerging ridge axis Sun and Mon as
onshore flow sets up. Winds S-SW Sat becoming S-SE 10 knots or
less Sun and Mon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  76  89  74 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  85  76  89  75 /  60  30  60  20
MLB  91  77  90  75 /  40  20  50  30
VRB  91  76  90  75 /  30  10  40  30
LEE  84  76  87  75 /  70  40  60  20
SFB  87  76  89  75 /  60  40  60  20
ORL  86  76  89  75 /  60  30  60  20
FPR  91  75  90  74 /  30  10  40  30

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal Volusia
     County-Inland Volusia County-Northern Brevard County-
     Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Lake County.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard
     County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County
     Line 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for winds until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

Lascody/Sharp/Volkmer/Combs

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1027 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016

FLZ047-053-054-058-059-147-021530-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-OSCEOLA FL-
OKEECHOBEE FL-ST. LUCIE FL-INDIAN RIVER FL-
1027 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN
RIVER...EASTERN OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM EDT...

AT 1026 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG LINE OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROCKLEDGE TO
NEAR SYLVAN SHORES. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS LOCALLY OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT SAINT LUCIE...PALM BAY...MELBOURNE...FORT PIERCE AND ROCKLEDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2718 8074 2721 8081 2714 8087 2723 8099
      2730 8100 2733 8105 2736 8103 2739 8112
      2752 8121 2760 8114 2771 8115 2834 8097
      2835 8087 2836 8087 2849 8051 2845 8049
      2839 8056 2834 8057 2813 8054 2732 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1426Z 235DEG 46KT 2829 8081 2728 8131

SEDLOCK