Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
328 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tonight...Only convection of note currently on radar is the
isolated storms over central Volusia County. Otherwise, diffuse east
coast sea breeze extend south of there to near/west of the St Johns
River will continue to push rapidly inland, confining diurnal
activity to the interior cos. Will use typical summertime pre-first
period to address this activity. Looking upstream, marine showers
are starting to pop a little as the more divergent eastern flank of
the TUTT low beings to approach. This trend will continue overnight,
and given the late afternoon radar trends, have drawn area of late
night marine and coastal showers a little farther north to include
Brevard County southward after midnight. Sultry SE flow will keep
min temps in the M70s inland, U70s along the coast.

Sunday-Sunday Night...TUTT axis along with its weaker mid level
reflection will move westward across the southern peninsula early
Sunday morning and into the eastern GOMEX by afternoon. Low level
ESE to SE flow freshens and advects higher mean PWAT of near 2.0"
into ECFL. Flow pattern still favors interior/western peninsula
for higher pops, with overall numbers a good 20 percent higher.
Forecast continues to indicate 30 POPS near the coast and 40-50 over
the interior with the highest coverage in the late afternoon west of
I-4. Highs in the upper 80s/around 90 along the coast and in the
lower 90s across the interior. Diurnal activity will have carried
itself west of the area by sunset, so only real chance for precip
will be small late night coastal shower threat. Min temps continue
on the warm side (M-U70s) in sultry E-SE flow.

Monday (Previous)...Ridge aloft builds offshore from the Carolinas
with deep easterly flow increasing across the area. Moisture levels
look to decrease a bit from Sunday with rain chances expected near
30 percent along the coastal counties and 40 percent for the
interior. Highs upper 80s/around 90 along the coast and lower 90s
for the interior.

Tuesday-Saturday (Previous)...The mid level ridge will hold strong
into mid week extending from along the SE Atlc coast into N FL. Deep
layer onshore flow will support low end scattered rain chances with
POPs generally from 30-40 pct into late week...lowest along the
coast and higher inland each afternoon. The mid level ridge is
forecast to break down by Friday with a trough aloft approaching the
SE Atlc coast by Saturday. This should allow rain chances to
gradually increase into Saturday but still staying in the scattered
range with POPs to 40-50 percent across the interior to start next
weekend. Highs generally near 90 along the coast to the lower 90s
across the interior. Lows in the mid 70s...except upper 70s along
the immediate coast.

&&

.AVIATION...Minimal threat for SHRA/TS at the interior aerodromes
through 00Z as coverage will be quite isolated. Best chance there
appears to be at KLEE 21Z-23Z. Coastal shower threat comes into play
for the TIX-SUA corridor tonight, and may need some AMDs or prevailing
VCSH there overnight.

Higher threat for diurnal convection for all aerodromes on Sunday,
with the interior sites continuing to be preferred for rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...Sunday-Thursday...SE winds to 10-15 knots on Sunday will
become easterly into Monday and then E/ESE into mid week. Seas 2-3
ft near shore to around 3 ft offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  89  77  91 /  10  30  10  30
MCO  76  92  77  92 /  10  50  10  40
MLB  78  89  79  89 /  20  30  20  30
VRB  78  88  78  89 /  30  30  20  30
LEE  76  93  76  93 /   0  50  10  40
SFB  76  92  77  92 /  10  40  10  40
ORL  76  91  77  92 /  10  40  10  40
FPR  77  88  77  89 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

FORECASTS...Cristaldi
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...Sedlock