Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
950 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Mid level ridge extends from near the Space Coast into the Atlantic
this morning with warm mid level temps near -5 C at H5 and near 9 C
at H7 on the Cape and Tampa soundings. PWAT values have increased to
2.13 inches at TBW and 1.59 inches at the Cape which is a trend
upward from yesterday. This should portend higher storm coverage
over the interior later into the afternoon with the inland moving
east and west coast sea breezes. Should see convective development
on the east coast sea breeze by mid day into early afternoon with
scattered storms across the interior into late afternoon. Only small
adjustments to POPs with 20-30 pct along the coastal counties to 40
percent over the interior. Highs will reach 92-94 near the east
coast and 95-97 across the interior. Heat indices are expected
to peak in the 103 to 107 range again this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD to SCT mid day convection expected mainly over the
interior this afternoon with VCTS mentioned for interior sites 18-
22Z. The east coast sea breeze will shift winds to onshore between
16Z and 18Z coastal sites.

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds to 10 knots this morning will veer to the SE this
afternoon. Seas...a rather flat 1-2 ft. Expect any storms to remain
mainly over the mainland and push into the interior late this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  92  75 /  20  10  20  10
MCO  96  76  95  75 /  40  20  30  10
MLB  93  77  92  75 /  20  10  20  10
VRB  93  76  92  74 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  97  77  94  77 /  30  20  30  20
SFB  97  77  94  76 /  30  20  30  10
ORL  95  77  94  77 /  30  20  30  10
FPR  93  74  92  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Volkmer/Weitlich

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1033 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-300100-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1033 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
IT WILL BE RATHER HOT AGAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RAPIDLY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HEAT COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH 103 TO 107 ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.

IF OUTDOORS...BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
FROM PHYSICAL EXERTION TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESS OR INJURY.
TO THE EXTENT POSSIBLE...STAY IN AIR CONDITIONED PLACES OUT OF THE
DIRECT SUN.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...OVERALL COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR...WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET FROM ANY SEA
BREEZE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW
STRONGER MID TO LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. IN ADDITION...SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH...WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO 34 KNOTS OVER INLAND LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
IN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND
GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL STORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED SATURDAY BUT THE EFFECTS FROM A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE WILL
HELP BOLSTER RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND JUST A BIT. NEXT
WEEK WILL REALIZE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
FAVORING INLAND LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

SHARP/WEITLICH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
248 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

FLZ045-144-291930-
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-ORANGE FL-
248 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 246 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR FOUR CORNERS...OR 8 MILES WEST OF BAY LAKE...MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE LOUISA...HORIZON WEST...CLERMONT AND KILLARNEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2864 8177 2853 8149 2835 8160 2835 8179
      2836 8179 2836 8181 2837 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 211DEG 7KT 2839 8171

WEITLICH