Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
931 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Mean layer flow through much of the column over east central
Florida remains at or below 10 knots while remaining generally out
of the east. The area remains within a growing weakness between
the large upper level ridge over the south central United States
and high pressure over the western Atlantic. A tropical wave over
the straits is enhancing convection across south Florida and the
Keys, though it is expected to have little impact on the local
area as it continues westward.

Latest real-time analysis combined with the morning radiosonde
launch from Cape Canaveral suggests an atmosphere not
particularly impressive for convective development, though
slightly better than Wednesday. Available moisture levels between
1.75 and 1.90" combined with a slight drop in temperatures aloft
suggest coverage will be a bit higher this afternoon. Low-topped
convection currently over the Atlantic will transition onshore
from the Cape south through early afternoon before the sea breeze
circulation develops shifts the best chances for showers and
storms toward the interior.

Sea breeze should have more activity along it (relative to
Wednesday) as it develops and moves inland from Brevard County
southward. Still, areas along I-95 and points west stand to see
the best chance for scattered showers and isolated storms this
afternoon. Activity will gradually propagate and shift toward the
west coast by late this afternoon, effectively ending rain chances
across the CWA by sunset (though showers over the Atlantic may
begin moving onshore across the Treasure Coast shortly there
after).

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR outside of brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby in slow moving
SHRA/TSRA. Focus for convection will shift from coastal terminals
(generally KTIX-KSUA) late this morning and early this afternoon
toward inland terminals from mid to late afternoon. Light winds
will become east through the afternoon as sea breeze boundary
moves inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions to persist over the
coastal waters with onshore winds up to 5 to 10 knots and seas
ranging from 2-3 feet nearshore to 4 feet offshore. Isolated
showers and storms over the Atlantic will reduce in coverage this
afternoon as diurnal sea breeze circulation leads to subsidence
over the nearshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  76  90  76 /  20  10  30  10
MCO  94  76  93  75 /  40  10  40  20
MLB  90  79  90  77 /  30  20  40  20
VRB  90  77  90  76 /  30  20  40  20
LEE  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  94  76  93  74 /  40  10  30  10
ORL  94  77  93  75 /  40  10  40  20
FPR  90  75  89  75 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Ulrich/Sedlock

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1052 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-212300-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1052 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TODAY. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST...THEN BEST
STORM CHANCES TRANSITION ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 5 TO
10 MPH.

A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL EXIST AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
GREATEST THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
TIDAL EFFECTS. ONLY SWIM IN THE OCEAN NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH OVER THE ATLANTIC AND INLAND WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
AND BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS REMAINING OVER THE
INTERIOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

WEITLICH/SEDLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
213 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

FLZ053-211900-
OSCEOLA FL-
213 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE KISSIMMEE...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE KISSIMMEE.

LAT...LON 2806 8146 2806 8144 2801 8138 2804 8136
      2807 8137 2807 8135 2808 8135 2809 8145
      2811 8145 2806 8109 2796 8105 2789 8131
      2792 8131 2794 8135 2795 8134 2800 8139
      2800 8142 2804 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 084DEG 12KT 2800 8120

SEDLOCK