Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
347 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Thru Tonight...late morning Cape sounding shows a little drier and
little more stable airmass which is apparent in the less active
sea breeze pushing inland (compared to yesterday). Still, plenty
of surface based CAPE is available which can be tapped especially
when boundaries collide. Threat exists for one or two strong
storms through 8 pm over interior sections, focused on Lake
and adjacent portions of Western Volusia and west Orange counties
with frequent lightning strikes and downburst winds. Convection
will linger a little later into the eve than last night west of
Orlando but diminish by 10 pm or so. Isolated Atlc showers/storms
may develop late tonight and brush the Brevard/Treasure coasts.

Fri-Sat (previous)...Fairly strong and deep layer ridging will
remain situated across the north and central FL peninsula through
this period. The surface ridge axis will lie across the central
peninsula early in the period then shift into north FL Fri night
into Sat. The pressure gradient will remain weak with
light/variable winds in the morning/night and light onshore flow
each afternoon as the ECSB develops and pushes well inland.
Greatest chance for precipitation near the east coast will be late
morning/early afternoon with greater chances inland/interior in
the mid to late afternoon/early evening. Storm motion will be
light out of the southeast.

Afternoon/evening storm threats will continue to be torrential
downpours, frequent lightning in a few storms, small hail, and gusty
downburst winds. Mainly 20 percent chances along the immediate
Volusia/Space coasts and 30 to 40 percent over the Treasure Coast
and further inland. Max temps U80s/L90s along the coast...L/M90s
inland. Min temps generally M70s.

Sun-Wed (previous)...Very strong mid/upper level high pressure
builds over the central CONUS through the period. The Bermuda
ridge axis remains northward of central FL through the extended.
Deep onshore flow will be the rule during this time across the
peninsula. The daily E/W seabreeze regime will be persistent each
afternoon/early evening. POPs mainly below climo with best chances
for showers/storms along the coast during an early morning to
early afternoon timeframe transitioning into the interior mid/late
afternoon and evening. Storm motion generally from east to west.
Daytime temps L/M90s except U80s immediate coast. Mins M/U70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Sct TSRA will push west across interior terminals (SFB/MCO/LEE)
through 23Z. Boundary collisions may keep convection ongoing a
little past 00Z near KLEE. Otherwise VFR. Isolated shra/tsra may
develop just offshore the coast late tonight/early Fri near
MLB/VRB.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight/Fri...Favorable boating conditions forecast to continue
with light SE-S flow redeveloping after sunset over the Atlc
waters. Isolated showers/storms are expected to develop overnight
over the waters. On Fri...any convection will transition onto land
and push away from the coast. East sea breeze 10-12 knots in the
afternoon near the coast. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Sat-Mon (previous)...Generally favorable boating conditions with
the low- level ridge axis initially near the central peninsula
lifting northward through the period allowing onshore flow to
deepen. The pressure gradient will still remain fairly weak with
onshore winds AOB 15 kts into early next week with seas AOB 3 ft.
Daily ECSB developing and pushing inland. Isold-Sct precipitation
chances moving east to west and greatest timing for activity in
the late night/morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  76  92 /  10  20  20  20
MCO  76  94  76  94 /  10  40  10  40
MLB  78  91  76  90 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  76  91  75  90 /  20  20  10  20
LEE  76  95  76  94 /  20  40  30  40
SFB  76  95  76  94 /  10  30  20  30
ORL  77  94  76  94 /  10  40  10  40
FPR  75  91  74  90 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Kelly/Johnson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-150100-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
900 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE NORTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND
FOCUS ON INTERIOR AREAS FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LAKE
COUNTY...IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. A FEW STORMS RESULTING FROM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY
PRODUCE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS LOCATED WELL-INLAND MAY
PRODUCE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES DUE TO SLOW
MOVEMENT AND STORM MERGERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY
PONDING FOR LOW-LYING SPOTS.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS...
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS OUT OF THE SUN.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER LAND AND AFFECT
MAINLY INLAND LAKES. A FEW OF THESE MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND
35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS.
ANY SUMMER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCAL
HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

DWS/FJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
601 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

FLZ044-045-142245-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-ORANGE FL-
601 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ORANGE AND CENTRAL
LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 600 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MOUNT PLYMOUTH...MOVING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
APOPKA...EUSTIS...MOUNT DORA...ZELLWOOD AND MOUNT PLYMOUTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2895 8153 2869 8149 2869 8162 2885 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 167DEG 4KT 2879 8155

15

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