Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1045 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...Marginal threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon...

...Deteriorating marine conditions starting late tonight...

Morning soundings paint another active weather day for central FL.
PWat values off the KXMR/KTBW soundings are btwn 1.60"-1.80"...not
particularly high for mid June...but most of this is in the H100-H70
lyr while the KXMR H70-H50 lyr is quite dry/cool. Also noteworthy
are the Lifted Indexes (arnd -7) and mid lvl lapse rates (arnd
6.5C/KM thru the H85-H50 lyr) on both KXMR/KTBW soundings. SB Cape
values increasing from arnd 1700J/KG at KTBW to arnd 3200J/KG at
KXMR/KTBW.

More disconcerting is the presence of a frontal boundary along the
FL/GA border that is forecast to push into the I-4 Corridor by mid
aftn. Ahead of the front...the brisk/deep westerly flow that has
dominated the lcl WX pattern for the past few days has been
diminishing steadily. Since 10Z this mrng...the USAF 915MHz profiler
at Cape Canaveral has seen the westerlies thru the sfc-10kft lyr
diminish from 15-20kts to arnd 10kts as of press time. This brings
the potential of an east coast sea breeze into play. Sfc obs at 10AM
were in the M/U70s acrs central FL...while aloft the RAP40 analysis
indicated H50 temps arnd -9C along the I-4 Corridor...approaching
-10C just north of Lake-O.

SPC upgraded svr tstm threat to MARGINAL at 1235Z...no arguments on
this end. Will bump PoPs up to 70pct areawide...no other changes
necessary.

Today/Tonight...(prev disc)
The southern extent of an amplifying mid-level trough over the
eastern seaboard is approaching north Florida this morning. At the
surface, a weak front stretches across the deep south and western
Atlantic. Low pressure will consolidate off the Carolinas this
morning and help crank the surface front across our forecast area
later today and tonight.

Mid-level shortwaves rounding the base of the trough will continue
to aid in convective development through the afternoon. Activity
over the eastern Gulf early this morning is being aided by one of
those mid-level vort maxes; however, most of the showers will
struggle to make it across the Peninsula given the lack of surface-
based instability this time of day.

Later this morning, daytime heating combined with several impulses
moving overhead should allow for an quick start to convection.
Moisture is expected to increase ahead of the frontal trough (up to
2" PWAT late this afternoon), so coverage will continue to gradually
increase through the afternoon. Convective vigor should be aided by
cooler temps aloft, and a few storms will be capable of producing
strong wind gusts up to 50 mph, small hail, and frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning. Storm motion initially from the west to the east
will become more northwest to southeast as the surface trough
approaches and winds gradually weaken. Locales that receive more
than one round of showers and storms could see localized flooding in
low-lying areas and on roadways.

The weakening front will continue to shift south tonight, veering
winds to out of the north and northeast as it does so. Lower
coverage of showers expected after sunset and into the overnight

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 19/12Z.
Sfc winds: Thru 18/18Z W/NW 9-13KTS with ocnl G18-22KTS. Btwn 18/18Z-
18/22Z...N of KISM-KMLB bcmg N/NE 9-13KTS slgt chc sfc G45KTS vcnty
of shras/tsras...S of KISM-KMLB bcmg N/NW 8-12KTS slgt chc sfc
G45KTS vcnty of shras/tsras. Btwn 18/22Z-19/02Z...bcmg N/NE 4-7KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 18/17Z...N of KLEE-KEVB isold MVFR shras. btwn
18/17Z-18/23Z...all sites nmrs MVFR shras/IFR tsras mvg S/SW arnd
15KTS...chc LIFR tsras with sfc G45KTS. Btwn 18/23Z-19/03Z...areas
mvfr ra/isold IFR tsras.

&&

.MARINE...(modified prev disc)
one more day of surface westerly flow ahead of an approaching trough
which is currently dropping south toward north FL. This should
weaken and collapse the local pgrad late this afternoon into this
evening, with a N-NE wind shift reaching the local Atlc waters by
sunset or a little afterwards.

Tonight-Wednesday...NE wind surge behind the frontal trough will
push southwards through the local Atlantic overnight/early Sunday,
with freshening NE to ENE winds (20-25KT) and building seas (7-10FT)
spreading S/W from the offshore Volusia waters across the entirety
of the MAOR by mid morning Sunday. SCA will be in effect from late
tonight through 7 AM Monday. Winds and seas will gradually abate
from Monday through mid week, as a weak high pressure ridge sags
into Florida.

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

Short Term/DSS.......Bragaw
Aviation/Impact WX...Wimmer

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
954 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-182200-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
954 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN THE MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.
OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD- TO- GROUND LIGHTNING, AND
SMALL HAIL. STORM MOTION, WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING FROM THE WEST
TO THE EAST, WILL BE SLOWER TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO
2 INCHES IN A QUICK 60 TO 90 MINUTE PERIOD COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY
LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS AND LOW- LYING AREAS.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS AS THEY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS INLAND LAKES, THE INTRACOASTAL, AND THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WHILE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
INITIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. A
PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
SUNDAY MORNING AS NORTHEAST WINDS BUILD BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT. SEAS WILL REMAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

WIMMER UPDATE/ULRICH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

FLZ041-044-046-141-182030-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-SEMINOLE FL-
333 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SEMINOLE AND CENTRAL
VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 331 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER LAKE HELEN...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.  ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SANFORD.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.  WITH STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCURRING, BRIEF
SHORT-LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DELTONA...SANFORD...WINTER SPRINGS...DELAND AND LAKE MARY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2880 8092 2868 8146 2871 8146 2871 8144
      2874 8142 2875 8141 2878 8141 2879 8147
      2910 8134 2911 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 350DEG 9KT 2899 8123

LASCODY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
338 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 ENE DE LAND           29.07N 81.22W
06/18/2016                   VOLUSIA            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 REPORTS OF A SHORT LIVED FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR I-4 AND
            STATE ROAD 44

&&

JRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
349 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

FLZ054-182030-
INDIAN RIVER FL-
349 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

AT 349 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WINTER BEACH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEBASTIAN...VERO BEACH...INDIAN RIVER SHORES...WINTER BEACH AND WABASSO.

LAT...LON 2757 8031 2765 8052 2780 8046 2777 8036
      2772 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 302DEG 13KT 2771 8043

WEITLICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
359 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW FERN PARK          28.66N 81.36W
06/18/2016  M51.00 MPH       SEMINOLE           FL   MESONET

&&

JRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
402 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND GST     VERO BEACH AIRPORT      27.66N 80.41W
06/18/2016  M48.00 MPH       INDIAN RIVER       FL   ASOS

&&

JRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
403 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

FLZ045-046-053-182100-
OSCEOLA FL-ORANGE FL-SEMINOLE FL-
403 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ORANGE...SOUTHERN SEMINOLE AND
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 401 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...OR OVER WINTER PARK...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER METRO ORLANDO AS NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES INTERACT.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORLANDO...KISSIMMEE...APOPKA...ALTAMONTE SPRINGS AND OCOEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2874 8166 2873 8106 2823 8117 2823 8154
      2826 8156 2826 8166 2854 8166 2858 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 337DEG 5KT 2857 8133

LASCODY