Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1038 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...TD3 Forms Near Yucatan...
...Scattered Storms This Afternoon...
...Slight Risk Of Severe Weather and A Few Tornadoes Monday...
...Periods Of Heavy Rain and Nuisance Flooding Possible Monday...

Today-Tonight...The morning sounding shows an increase in avbl
moisture from Sat, however warming aloft will delay best
potential for storms until mid afternoon. The sea breeze along the
Space/Treasure coast along with boundary interactions will lead to a
scattered coverage over the rest of the area into evening.

The main hazards will be local rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches,
frequent lighting strikes and gusty winds around 40 mph, hazardous
for mariners.

Refer to advisories on TD 3 emerging into the Gulf of Mexico just
north of the Yucatan this evening and continue moving north
overnight. Deep tropical moisture will be pulled up on its east side
with the highest precipitable water values (~2.5 inches) likely
remaining over the eastern Gulf. MOS and model blend PoPs, which
were 40-50 percent, look reasonable for lingering evening convection
and overnight showers in increasing moist southerly low level flow
associated with the approaching cyclone.  Will have to watch for
outer rainbands approaching the south late in the night since low
level wind shear will be increasing then.

&&

.AVIATION...
Increasing moisture will lead to scattered showers and storms during
the afternoon. Convective initiation looks to be around 18z in the
south, then activity will move/develop northward to the interior and
northern terminals about 19-22z. A few storms will produce frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds to 35 knots and quick 2-3 inch
downpours as they move north/northeast around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Gradually retreating surface high pressure ridge
into the Atlantic will cause winds to be southerly with speeds
generally 10-15 knots. Seas look 2-3 feet near shore and 3-4
feet in the open Atlantic. Scattered afternoon-evening storms
will form quite close to the coast and move north around 10 knots.
Some lightning strikes and gusty winds near 35 knots are possible
along the intracoastal and nearshore Atlantic waters. The main
tightening of the pressure gradient associated with the tropical
low lifting north in the eastern Gulf of Mexico looks to hold off
until Monday.

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

jp/tes/sms

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1120 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-052300-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1120 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY WILL
PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW, WHICH WILL TAP A MUCH MORE MOIST
AIR MASS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MOVEMENT SHOULD BE
TOWARDS THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
A FEW OF THE STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME,
WHICH WOULD CAUSE CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
OTHER POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LINGERING OCEAN SWELL WILL KEEP A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT
AREA BEACHES. THE STRONGEST SEAWARD PULL IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS. ONLY
SWIM IN THE OCEAN NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS FORMING OVER LAND WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER THREE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH MONDAY, THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
CROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, SEVERE OR TORNADIC STORMS
AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

PEOPLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM. BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE YOUR
PERSONAL SEVERE WEATHER PLAN, SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

LASCODY/SEDLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
248 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

FLZ059-064-051930-
MARTIN FL-ST. LUCIE FL-
248 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 247 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF PALM CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT SAINT LUCIE...WALTON AND STUART.

LAT...LON 2708 8066 2711 8066 2712 8068 2720 8067
      2733 8068 2750 8047 2736 8019 2709 8009
      2696 8033 2696 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 189DEG 22KT 2716 8040

SEDLOCK

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