Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
413 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...
..STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS
EVENING...
...DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY...

TONIGHT-SAT...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE THIS
MORNING NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
BOUNDARY HAS SERVED AS A RAPID TRANSITION TO MORE UNSTABLE MOIST
AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. AFTERNOON STORMS
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AMOUNTS WITH NUISANCE FLOODING INTO THE EVENING. THERE REMAINS A
THREAT OF SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH 10
PM WILL BE ABLE TO BE TRIMMED IN AREAL EXTENT DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING WHILE TRANSITIONING LARGELY OFFSHORE.

SAT-SUN...(FROM PREV DISC...)LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR TO
JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE SATURDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AFT...WITH BREEZY (POTENTIALLY
WINDY) CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED
SATURDAY...UP TO 50-60 PERCENT DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE
FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FL COMBINED WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW
TRANSPORTING SHOWERS ONSHORE FROM BREVARD NORTHWARD. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL ALOFT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS SATURDAY AFT.
POPS THEN DECREASE INTO SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

MON-THU...BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. SHIFTING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OUT OF THE
FORECAST MON-WED. INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING S/SE FLOW FROM RIDGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LEAD
TO A RISE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK...INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL
(LOW/MID 80S) BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 16/02Z...S OF KTIX-KISM NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS/SLGT CHC
LIFR +TSRAS WITH SFC G35KTS...N OF KTIX-KISM SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR
TSRAS...SUSTAINED SFC WNDS 15-20KTS WITH G22-26KTS. BTWN
16/02Z-16/12Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES/SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS
INTERIOR SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
***USERS NOTE***: A LARGE WIND/WAVE SURGE WAS MEASURED AT BUOY010
AROUND MIDDAY...RISING FROM 7FT TO 13FT. THIS WAS ACCOMPANYED BY A
LARGE SWING IN SURFACE PRESSURE. THIS INDICATES A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
A RAPID ONSET OF LARGE/LONG PD WAVES. THIS SURGE WILL WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. TIMING TO IMPACT THE COAST OF
BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES IS AROUND 7PM THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...FRESH TO STRONG NE WIND SURGE WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE LCL ATLC WITH CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS REALIZED AT BUOY009...
BUOY010 VERIFIYING 25-30KT ENE BREEZE WITH SEAS JUMPING FROM 7FT
TO 13FT JUST AT MIDDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP THE STARTING TIMES FOR
SCA...STARTING IMMEDIATELY FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS...AT 16/00Z
FOR BREVARD COUNTY WATERS...AND TREASURE COAST WATERS AT 16/08Z.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING INTO SOUTH FL. FRESH ONSHORE
BREEZE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS AND COMBINE
WITH AN ELEVATED NE SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 9-11 FEET
OFFSHORE. SCA WILL CONTINUE OVER VOLUSIA WATERS AND OFFSHORE
BREVARD COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...EXPANDING OVER THE
ENTIRE WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY AFT AND REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-TUE...MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZE MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
INTO TUESDAY...BUT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED UP TO 9-11
FEET MONDAY AND 7-9 FEET TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE POOR TO
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  75  63  75 /  30  50  30  10
MCO  66  80  64  80 /  40  50  20  10
MLB  68  78  67  77 /  60  60  30  20
VRB  66  80  67  78 /  60  60  30  20
LEE  65  79  61  79 /  40  50  20  10
SFB  65  78  61  78 /  40  50  20  10
ORL  66  79  63  78 /  40  50  20  10
FPR  66  80  68  78 /  60  70  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-
     OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
409 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

FLZ053-152100-
OSCEOLA FL-
409 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH OSCEOLA COUNTY FROM KISSIMMEE...TO SAINT CLOUD...TOWARD
HARMONY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. LOCAL RAINFALL UP OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KISSIMMEE...SAINT CLOUD...BUENA VENTURA LAKES...NARCOOSSEE AND
INTERCESSION CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THESE
STORMS PASS.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL
RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2834 8153 2834 8088 2813 8088 2820 8152
      2821 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 272DEG 17KT 2829 8144

DWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

FLZ064-152115-
MARTIN FL-
425 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

AT 424 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HOBE SOUND...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JUPITER ISLAND...HOBE SOUND...JONATHAN DICKINSON STATE PARK...HOBE SOUND
BEACH AND HOBE SOUND WILDLIFE REFUGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2700 8007 2702 8020 2711 8020 2713 8011
      2706 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 269DEG 9KT 2707 8013

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
431 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

FLZ053-054-058-152130-
OSCEOLA FL-OKEECHOBEE FL-INDIAN RIVER FL-
431 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OKEECHOBEE...WESTERN
INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 430 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF KISSIMMEE PRARIE PRESERVE...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LAKE MARIAN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLUE CYPRESS LAKE AND KISSIMMEE PRARIE PRESERVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN MELBOURNE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2757 8068 2756 8118 2760 8114 2764 8114
      2765 8113 2766 8113 2768 8115 2771 8115
      2773 8117 2774 8116 2775 8117 2781 8069
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 263DEG 25KT 2766 8117

DWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
437 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

FLZ059-152130-
ST. LUCIE FL-
437 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LUCIE COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

AT 433 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SAINT LUCIE COUNTY JUST NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST OF FORT PIERCE
APPROACHING INTERSTATE 95 FROM...MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT SAINT LUCIE...WALTON...FORT PIERCE...SAINT LUCIE NUCLEAR POWER
PLANT AND WHITE CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THESE
STORM PASS.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2722 8018 2724 8019 2723 8019 2722 8021
      2726 8023 2726 8028 2722 8028 2722 8066
      2754 8066 2755 8030 2722 8016
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 263DEG 25KT 2731 8056

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
509 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             4 N JUPITER             26.98N 80.11W
04/15/2016  E1.50 INCH       MARTIN             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
520 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

FLZ047-053-054-152215-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-OSCEOLA FL-INDIAN RIVER FL-
520 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN INDIAN RIVER...
SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA AND SOUTH CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
EDT...

AT 518 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF LAKE MARIAN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. OTHER STORMS
WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALM BAY...FELLSMERE...LAKE MARIAN...KENANSVILLE AND BLUE CYPRESS LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THESE
STORM PASS.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2769 8114 2794 8114 2794 8063 2766 8053
      2767 8081
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 273DEG 18KT 2776 8108

DWS