Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
302 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

FROM MID TO LATE AFTN...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RELATIVELY
UNENCUMBERED AIRMASS WITH FURTHER MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
ALL FACTORS POINT TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS ONCE BOUNDARIES INTERACT IN THE ECFL AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HRRR GUID INDICATES A LATE
AFTERNOON MAXIMA OF STORM COVERAGE WITH A PERSISTENCE OF SCT STORMS
WELL INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD WHILE MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TS SHOULD COME
TO AN END OVER LAND AREAS BY MIDNIGHT WITH TRANSITION TO THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.
WL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY GIVEN THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND RAIN WETTED GROUND...MAINLY
IN THE TRADITIONALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER
FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON STORMS TO THE AREA.
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND DLM STEERING WINDS WL FAVOR THE EAST COAST
AND SOME STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL REMAIN NORTH OF ECFL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MOVE OFF OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON MON WITH SOUTHERN PORTION LAGGING INTO NORTH
FL...FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE AREA MON OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT DEEPER INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. NEAR
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
REGION. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN UPWARDS OF 1.60-1.70 INCHES
WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HIGHEST POPS SUN
EVENING FAVORING THE NORTH WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND STORMS PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE COAST...THEN FOCUS
FURTHER SOUTH ON MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS REMAINING MILD IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. HIGHS ON MON IN THE L-M80S.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

TUE-SAT...SLIGHT DRYING IS INDICATED TUE AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...BUT THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
WHICH WILL NECESSITATE CHANCE POPS. TEMPS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE
QUITE COLD SO CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WED. AN OVERALL MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS INDICATED AS WEAK RIDGING
MOVES OVERHEAD. POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH THUNDER CHANCES SHIFTED
WELL INLAND LOOK IN ORDER. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN
SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH ON FRI. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND
SHOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT CIGS AND VSBY INTERRUPTED BY PCPN ALONG WITH SCT
STORMS WITH SOME REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND BRIEF IFR TONIGHT THROUGH
27/03Z. CONDS BECMG VFR AFT 27/04Z. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE IN RAIN AFFECTED AREAS EARLY SAT MNLY FM 27/09Z-27/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS LIFTING N OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. SEAS AROUND 2 FT
NEAR SHORE AND 3 TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE CAN BE EXPECTED. MARINERS
WILL SEE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE COASTAL STORMS VICE PREVAILING
WIND AND SEA STATE WHICH ASIDE FROM STORMS.

SUN NIGHT...NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT TOWARDS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. OFFSHORE MOVING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING DUE TO SEA
BREEZE COLLISIONS OVER THE MAINLAND AND STORM STEERING FLOW TAKING
REMNANTS OFF OF THE COAST...INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS AND NEAR SHORE
ATLC WATERS. STORM MOTION TOWARD THE EAST OR ENE AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS INVOF STRONGER STORMS.

SERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE LATE DAY SEA BREEZE WILL VEER
BACK TO SSW IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10-13 KTS OVER THE
OPEN ATLC. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.

...PREVIOUS MARINE EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MON-THU...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET NUDGED SOUTH MON AS TAIL END
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS IN TO NORTH FLORIDA.  WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS.  GREATEST CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO EASE LATE MON INTO
TUE AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH WEAKENS ACROSS THE WATERS. IT LOOKS DRIER
OVERALL BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS EXISTS TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS SHOWN BRIDGING THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WED WITH WINDS FRESHENING OUT OF THE EAST. SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED BUT MAIN CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE WELL
INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  83  68  82 /  40  60  60  40
MCO  69  86  70  84 /  40  50  50  40
MLB  70  86  70  84 /  40  30  50  40
VRB  69  86  69  86 /  30  20  40  40
LEE  69  86  70  84 /  40  60  50  40
SFB  68  86  70  83 /  40  60  50  40
ORL  69  86  70  83 /  40  50  50  40
FPR  70  86  68  86 /  30  20  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM/RADAR....SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-270300-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA
COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA
COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
400 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. STORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY WILL BE ASSISTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS FROM SEA AND LAKE BREEZES...AS WELL AS PREVIOUS STORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE STORMS TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE THE
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
EXIST. A BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL ZONE
WHERE ONSHORE WIND CAN ENHANCE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE EAST MOVING
LOCAL STORM ENVIRONMENT.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE THREAT FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY. THE
THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST THROUGH SUNSET DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR HIGHER OVER INLAND
LAKES AND AS THEY PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING BUT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG CONTAINING SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

WEITLICH/SEDLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
450 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

FLZ144-262145-
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-
450 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

AT 449 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MASCOTTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GROVELAND...MASCOTTE...FERNDALE...CLERMONT AND LAKE LOUISA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL
BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2862 8195 2872 8166 2835 8166 2835 8179
      2836 8179 2836 8186 2835 8186 2835 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 245DEG 27KT 2850 8196

SEDLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
550 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

FLZ045-262245-
ORANGE FL-
550 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM EDT...

AT 548 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FOUR CORNERS...OR NEAR BAY LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ORLANDO...BAY LAKE...OAK RIDGE...BELLE
ISLE AND THE ORLANDO THEME PARKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL
BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2847 8165 2849 8134 2835 8133 2835 8166
      2837 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 258DEG 10KT 2837 8162

SEDLOCK

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