Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SUPERCELL THAT DVLPD OVER LAKE-O AND RACED ALL THE WAY TO THE
BREVARD COAST LATE THIS AFTN PRODUCED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF QUARTER TO
GOLF BALL HAIL...BUT NO REPORTS SIG WIND DAMAGE. OTHER CELLS
GENERATED WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE...BUT AGAIN...NO SIG
DAMAGE. LARGE BAND OF SHRAS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRAS LIFTING TOWARD
THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN THRU LATE EVNG. RADAR
EST RAINFALL SHOWING LARGE AREAS RECEIVING BTWN 0.50"-1.00" WITH
LOCAL AMNTS UP TO 1.50".

WX PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED OVERNIGHT. EVNG SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE INCREASING DOWN THE PENINSULA...PWATS RANGE FROM 1.1" AT
KJAX...TO 1.4" AT KTBW...TO 1.9" AT KMFL. RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWING A
NEARLY SATURATED H100-H70 AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA
WITH MEAN RH VALUES AOA 90PCT. TEMP PROFILE IS UNSTABLE WITH H70
TEMPS ARND 5C...H50 TEMPS ARND -10C...YIELDING LAPSE RATE ARND
6.0C/KM THRU THE LYR. EVEN MORE TELLING...UPSTREAM OVER THE ERN
GOMEX LAPSE RATES THRU THE H85-H70 LYR STEEPEN TO 7.0-7.5C/KM.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WILL COME FROM STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING THRU THE 5-15KFT LYR...WHILE A 70KT H30-H20 JET STREAK
PROVIDES UPR LVL DIVERGENCE.

WILL BUMP POPS UP TO 70PCT...THOUGH RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFT
MIDNIGHT AS A SLUG OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE ERN GOMEX WORKS
ITS WAY ACRS THE PENINSULA. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR TSRAS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW...BUT WILL KEEP CHC TSRAS IN THE FCST GIVEN
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY OF THE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 26/00Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 25/06Z...S/SE 8-12KTS WITH OCNL SFC G25-30KTS VCNTY
OF TSRAS. BTWN 26/06Z-25/14Z...S/SW 4-8KTS. AFT 26/14Z...S/SW 10-
14KTS WITH OCNL G18-22KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 25/06Z...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS/SLGT CHC
LIFR +TSRA. BTWN 25/08Z-25/14Z...AREAS IFR CIGS BTWN FL006-009/LCL
MVFR VSBYS IN FG...CHC IFR TSRAS. BTWN 25/14Z-25/18Z...SLGT CHC MVFR
SHRAS. AFT 25/18Z...MVFR SHRAS LKLY...CHC IFR TSRAS.

&&

.MARINE...
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX COMBINES WITH A RIDGE AXIS THE FL STRAITS TO
GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE. THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE BAHAMA SHADOW TO PRODUCE 3-4FT SEAS NEARSHORE
AND 4-5FT SEAS OFFSHORE WITH DOMINANT PDS AOB 5SEC. SHRAS/TSRAS
MOVING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MAY CONTAIN SFC WIND G35KTS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
505 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-242200-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
505 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN ABOUT 4 AND 10 PM.

ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INLAND TOWARD THE KISSIMMEE RIVER AND
LAKE COUNTY AS SEA AND LAKE BREEZES START TO INTERACT. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH BACK ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...INCLUDING GREATER KISSIMMEE-SAINT CLOUD...ORLANDO AND
SANFORD AREAS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND SUNSET...BEFORE
SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE VOLUSIA...SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS FROM
AROUND SUNSET INTO EARLY EVENING.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 OR 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH TODAY'S STRONGEST STORMS. HEAD INDOORS TO SAFETY IF
SKIES LOOK THREATENING...OR YOU HEAR THUNDER.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
TODAY'S STORM WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
OF 35 KNOTS OR HIGHER OVER INLAND LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
...WITH THE POTENTIAL SPREADING EASTWARD TO THE INTRACOASTAL AND
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE THREAT FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNSET DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS.

IF HEADED TO THE COAST TODAY...CHECK WITH THE BEACH PATROL FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT OCEAN HAZARDS. TO LESSEN YOUR CHANCE
OF BECOMING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM ONLY WITHIN SIGHT OF A
LIFEGUARD...AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BUT
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CRISTALDI

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
923 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

FLZ045-147-250215-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-ORANGE FL-
923 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ORANGE AND NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

AT 922 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CHRISTMAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TITUSVILLE...WEDGEFIELD...CHRISTMAS...TITUSVILLE AIRPORT AND BITHLO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2850 8078 2839 8103 2854 8113 2861 8102
      2861 8097 2865 8096 2869 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 238DEG 18KT 2851 8101

SK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
946 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

FLZ053-250230-
OSCEOLA FL-
946 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY UNTIL
1030 PM EDT...

AT 946 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SAINT CLOUD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAINT CLOUD...EAST LAKE TOHO...NARCOOSSEE...HARMONY AND PINE GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH
THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A
THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN
SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO
PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2835 8117 2835 8096 2820 8090 2810 8130
      2825 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 237DEG 19KT 2821 8130

SK