Special Marine Warning 91, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1105 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite imagery reveals numerous remnant
convective boundaries from earlier convection over/approaching
CWA...along with rapid cumulus development during past hour. 12Z
soundings from XMR/TBW confirm very moist atmosphere throughout
the column...with precipitable water above 2 inches and low LCL's...in
agreement with earlier model progs. Expect significant upward
trend of convective coverage late morning through mid afternoon
with slow motion toward the N/NE. Pattern suggests greatest precip
coverage in some time for CWA...including coastal
counties/beaches. With areal average QPF not likely to be
high...some areas should receive short-duration, beneficial rain
totals today.

With deep moisture and weak winds throughout the vertical
profile, and relatively warm mid level temperatures...threat for
isolated severe storms expected to remain very low.

&&

.AVIATION...Increasing chance for MVFR/temporary IFR in TSRA all
TAF sites through the afternoon...with greatest chance across
inland sites 19-22Z. Several periods of TSRA likely for many
terminals through 24Z.

&&

.MARINE...S/SW flow near 10 knots will become SE 10-15 kt
nearshore this afternoon. Flow will be temporarily and locally
disrupted by offshore-moving, scattered showers/storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  75  89  76 /  60  30  60  40
MCO  91  75  90  76 /  60  30  60  30
MLB  89  75  90  77 /  60  20  40  30
VRB  89  75  90  75 /  60  20  40  20
LEE  91  75  90  77 /  60  30  60  40
SFB  91  76  90  76 /  60  30  60  40
ORL  91  75  90  77 /  60  30  60  30
FPR  89  75  90  74 /  60  20  30  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Short Term/Long Term...Spratt
Impact weather/Radar....Johnson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
830 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-050200-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
830 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS STORMS OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INITIALIZE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BEFORE
SPREADING SLOWLY WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO VOLUSIA COUNTY WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AND
GREATEST BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INCREASED OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW...A FEW
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATER TODAY.

TODAYS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 TO 3 INCH DOWNPOURS
IN A SHORT 60 TO 90 MINUTE PERIOD, OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS...MAINLY ALONG THE BEACHES OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COUNTIES. IF HEADED TO THE COAST, CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROL
BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER AND ONLY SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A
LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHTNING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND LAKES AND RIVERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW
WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO PUSH OFF THE MAINLAND AND OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS IN ANY STRONGER STORMS WHICH DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

ULRICH/JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1203 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

FLZ054-059-041645-
ST. LUCIE FL-INDIAN RIVER FL-
1203 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL ST. LUCIE AND
EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

AT 1203 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SAINT LUCIE AIRPORT...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INDRIO...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT PIERCE...SEBASTIAN...VERO BEACH...FELLSMERE AND INDIAN RIVER
SHORES.

LAT...LON 2737 8037 2739 8057 2782 8055 2774 8035
      2770 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 1603Z 187DEG 7KT 2746 8046

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
115 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

FLZ059-041800-
ST. LUCIE FL-
115 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LUCIE COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM
EDT...

AT 114 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
TRADITION...OR NEAR PORT SAINT LUCIE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT SAINT LUCIE...FORT PIERCE...WHITE CITY...
SAINT LUCIE WEST AND PORT SAINT LUCIE RIVER PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2721 8036 2721 8053 2723 8059 2749 8051
      2739 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 192DEG 15KT 2730 8046

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
139 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

FLZ045-047-053-054-058-147-041830-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-OSCEOLA FL-
ORANGE FL-OKEECHOBEE FL-INDIAN RIVER FL-
139 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...
NORTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...EASTERN OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 139 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CANAVERAL GROVES TO FORT DRUM. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALM BAY...MELBOURNE...ROCKLEDGE...SEBASTIAN AND COCOA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2756 8035 2756 8068 2755 8068 2754 8105
      2853 8106 2865 8091
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 273DEG 27KT 2846 8085 2753 8081

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

FLZ045-046-041900-
ORANGE FL-SEMINOLE FL-
215 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ORANGE AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SEMINOLE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 214 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
AZALEA PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORLANDO...OVIEDO...WINTER SPRINGS...WINTER PARK AND CASSELBERRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2842 8125 2851 8143 2874 8129 2863 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 211DEG 30KT 2854 8130

JOHNSON

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