Special Marine Warning 101, NWS Melbourne, FL

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
935 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Current...The FL peninsula is presently between two weather
features. An upper low clearly evident on WV imagery off the FL east
coast wl bring some mid-level drying and cooling along with added
diffluence aloft as it opens as into a wave while drifting twd the
North. An elongated area of sfc low pressure from S GA to near
Pensacola will continue to supply deep moisture to the area with
PWAT remaining near 2 inches locally. Approach of the upper low has
cooled H5 temps by nearly 2 degrees from this time Sunday and
partial erosion of early higher cloud cover combining with a deep
SSW flow regime and increased SB instability wl bring numerous
showers and scattered afternoon storms primarily during the
afternoon hours.

Today-tonight...(from prev disc) Model guidance suggests that the
ECSB will either remain pinned along the east coast or not develop
at all today, but do feel it has the best chance from near Sebastian
Inlet southward. This feature would provide a focus for storm
enhancement along the coast here for later today. Main concerns with
showers/storms continue to be locally heavy rain/lightning, though a
few stronger storms with locally gusty winds will also be possible.

Highs today will again be tricky and MOS guidance has not done well
for along the east coast where clouds have been thinner the past
couple of days and as well with either the ECSB not developing or be
it late development with little/NIL inland movement. Will go with
U80s to around 90 degrees along the coast with L-M 80s well into the
interior. Lows remain consistent and in the 70s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds through late morning with some light
shower activity and brief MVFR conds. Very moist and unsettled with
SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD-SCT TSRA increasing this afternoon and into
early evening across ECFL. Convective activity thins out again
tonight with decreasing cloud debris, though a small threat will
remain for SHRA's/TSRA's. Storm motion remains SW twd the NE. Will
also watch for sea breeze development along mainly the Treasure
Coast this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-tonight...S/SSW winds around 15 kts north of Sebastian Inlet
over the open Atlc with slight weakening of the PGRAD this
evening/overnight. Seas 2 ft very near shore and 3-4 ft well
offshore. Unsettled weather conditions with scattered showers and
isolated storms will continue to be possible through the period with
offshore moving convection potential in the late morning/afternoon
and into early evening. Torrential downpours and gusty winds along
with cloud to water lightning the main threats.

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

JP/FJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-090200-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1000 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS.
SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PUSH
INTO LAKE COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TODAY'S STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT NEAR 15 MPH, AND A FEW
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN A 60 TO 90 MINUTE PERIOD,
AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. MOVE INDOORS TO SAFETY AT THE
FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE WIND GUST UP TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER INLAND LAKES AS WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL AND
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY, WITH STORM COVERAGE
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
SOUTHWEST STEERING WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS
TO PUSH OFF THE MAINLAND INTO THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE
WATERS ON TUESDAY AND NORTH OF THE CAPE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS IN
STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

SEDLOCK/JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1214 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 PM     TSTM WND GST     ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL A 28.42N 81.32W
08/08/2016  M40 MPH          ORANGE             FL   ASOS

            ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 40
            MPH/35 KTS FROM THE WSW.

&&

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1219 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

FLZ041-045-046-053-141-081700-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-OSCEOLA FL-ORANGE FL-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-SEMINOLE FL-
1219 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...EASTERN
SEMINOLE...NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA AND SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES
UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

AT 1218 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR GENEVA TO WEST LAKE TOHO. MOVEMENT
WAS SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH...WITH INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORLANDO...DELTONA...KISSIMMEE...OVIEDO AND WINTER SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2895 8113 2888 8087 2879 8091 2879 8097
      2868 8096 2803 8127 2808 8135 2813 8146
      2814 8146 2815 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 292DEG 6KT 2876 8110 2821 8143

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1255 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

FLZ045-046-053-141-147-081745-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-OSCEOLA FL-ORANGE FL-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-SEMINOLE FL-
1255 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...EASTERN
SEMINOLE...NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA...NORTHWESTERN BREVARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 1254 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MAYTOWN TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
POINCIANA. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 10 MPH...WITH INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORLANDO...KISSIMMEE...TITUSVILLE...OVIEDO AND SAINT CLOUD.

LAT...LON 2863 8075 2787 8126 2790 8132 2792 8131
      2794 8135 2795 8134 2800 8139 2800 8142
      2804 8146 2806 8146 2806 8144 2801 8138
      2808 8135 2809 8145 2814 8146 2883 8111
      2882 8107 2886 8109 2903 8100
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 292DEG 22KT 2884 8103 2807 8138

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
100 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

FLZ054-058-059-064-081800-
MARTIN FL-OKEECHOBEE FL-ST. LUCIE FL-INDIAN RIVER FL-
100 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LUCIE...MARTIN...SOUTHEASTERN
OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 1259 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SOUTH BEACH TO TREASURE ISLAND.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH...WITH INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT SAINT LUCIE...WALTON...FORT PIERCE...STUART AND VERO BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2704 8064 2711 8066 2718 8074 2721 8079
      2720 8083 2718 8084 2720 8087 2770 8035
      2769 8033 2723 8014 2697 8046 2696 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 301DEG 23KT 2762 8035 2721 8078

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
146 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

FLZ045-047-053-147-081830-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-OSCEOLA FL-
ORANGE FL-
146 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...
NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 145 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF PORT CANAVERAL TO 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH...WITH INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALM BAY...MELBOURNE...TITUSVILLE...ROCKLEDGE AND COCOA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8051 2839 8056 2834 8057 2813 8054
      2782 8057 2782 8059 2839 8115 2877 8082
      2848 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 310DEG 19KT 2849 8054 2817 8081

JOHNSON