Small Craft Advisory 7, NWS Melbourne, FL

463 
WHUS72 KMLB 280033
MWWMLB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
733 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016

AMZ555-572-575-280145-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-160128T0300Z/
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-
733 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
10 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVE BUT OTHERWISE MILD AND
RAIN FREE. SURGE OF MOISTURE IS LIFTING NORTH FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD CENTRAL FL. WE WILL SEE LOWERING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT REACHING 60 TO
70 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER/STEADIER RAINS DEVELOPING LATER OVERNIGHT
AND WED MORNING. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WED...WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED TS EXPECTED ALL DAY AS INCREASINGLY HIGH
MEAN PWAT AIR COUPLED WITH STRONG JET FORCED ASCENT OVERSPREAD THE
RGN AND SATURATE THE LOCAL AIR MASS. POPS HAVE BEEN PUSHED TO 100
PERCENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNSET RANGING FROM A LITTLE BELOW
0.75" TO AROUND 2.0" SOUTH. EMBEDDED CELLULAR CONVECTION WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH SOME LTG AND AT LEAST A
MODEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS. SHADED MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE...NEAR 70 NORTH TO M70S SOUTH.

WED NIGHT...
CONTINUED CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AS THE ELONGATED SHORT WAVE
FRONTAL TROF SLIDES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/WRN GOMEX. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATING A NEARLY
SATURATED AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES BTWN 1.6"-1.8". BRISK S/SW FLOW
ACRS THE BNDRY WILL SET THE STATE FOR RESPECTABLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT...WHILE A 100-120KT H30-H20 JET STREAK WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE
GOMEX AND PROVIDES MODERATE TO STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE. WILL PAINT
THE CWA WITH 90-100PCT POPS...FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST WITH PRECIP BTWN 0.75"-1.00"...LCL AMNTS UP TO
2.00" PSBL WITH EMBEDDED TSRAS. MINS U50S/L60S N OF I-4...L/M60S TO
THE S.

THU-THU NIGHT...
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM DIGS OVER THE NRN TIER STATES AND FEEDS ITS ENERGY TO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF. LATEST GFS/ECM RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SFC
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN GOMEX AHEAD OF THE TROF BEFORE RACING UP
THE W ATLC THRU THE DAY. THE ADDITIONAL TORQUE WILL PULL THE TRAILING
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW-MID LVL WINDS VEER FROM SW TO W
THRU THE DAY...THEN TO NW OVERNIGHT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LKLY THRU THE DAY...A CHC FOR MRNG TSRAS AREAWIDE
TRANSITIONING SOUTHWARD BY LATE IN THE DAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIP BTWN
0.25"-0.50" N OF CAPE CANAVERAL/LAKE KISSIMMEE...0.50"-0.75" TREASURE
COAST AND THE NE SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL BRING RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 1.5" TO 3.0" INCHES FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL FOR THE WED-THU
TIME FRAME. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME STANDING WATER/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST WHERE JANUARY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE WELL EXCEEDED THE 30YR AVG.
MAX TEMPS IN THE M/U60S N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...L/M70S TO THE S.

SHRA ACTIVITY WILL LINGER WELL INTO THU EVNG AS THE MID LVL TROF
AXIS CRANKS THE SFC FRONT THRU THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. FRONT SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE FL STRAITS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO
THE PRECIP FROM NW TO SE. AREAS N OF CAPE CANAVERAL/LAKE KISSIMMEE
BCMG RAINFREE AFT MIDNIGHT. COOLER MIN TEMPS WITH AREAS ALONG AN N
OF I-4 FALLING INTO THE M/U40S...SPACE/TREASURE COASTS HOLDING IN
THE L/M50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 12Z MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS SPREADING NWD ACROSS ALL AERODROMES
WITH LCL IFR CIGS BKN-OVC005-008 MAINLY FROM 12Z ONWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATELY LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS HAVE WANED
TO WHERE COMBINED SEAS ARE NOW 5-6FT OFFSHORE. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS CONTINUED DECAY IN SWELL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS
DROPPING FURTHER TO 3-5FT. WILL MAINTAIN CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR
SEAS BEYOND 20NM BUT INCREASING SOUTH WINDS MAY REQUIRE CAUTION
TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON WED.

&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...

				  RECORD JAN PRECIP		JAN 2016 PRECIP (THRU 1/26)

DAYTONA BEACH	    7.16" (1986)		4.12"
ORLANDO INTL		8.54" (1912)		2.98"
MELBOURNE   		8.17" (1979)		5.93"
VERO BEACH			9.08" (1957)		5.46"
FORT PIERCE			   					6.90"

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  69  60  65 /  60  90 100  80
MCO  62  72  63  71 /  70  90 100  80
MLB  64  73  64  73 /  70 100 100  80
VRB  65  75  64  75 /  70 100 100  80
LEE  60  70  60  67 /  60  90  90  80
SFB  60  72  61  69 /  60  90 100  80
ORL  62  72  62  70 /  60  90 100  80
FPR  65  74  64  75 /  70 100 100  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

KELLY/SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
600 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-271100-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
600 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EAST TO NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE SOUTH FROM THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE AND NEAR
SHORE SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...PRODUCING POOR BOATING CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACHING TWO TO THREE INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND GULF STREAM WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SEDLOCK