Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...Widespread Showers and Strong Storms into Evening With Torrential
Rainfall And Possible Isolated Tornadoes Along the East Coast...

Current-Tonight...The ECSB has made things interesting this
afternoon along the east coast with strong storms containing gusty
winds, very heavy rainfall, frequent to excessive lightning, and a
few rotating storms. 15Z KXMR sounding shows continued moistening
with a PWAT of 1.88 inches. 500mb temperatures remain near -10C.
Rather warm/humid conditions presently with temperatures well into
the 80s and sultry dewpoints in the 70s. Impressive MCS in
GOMEX...once near stationary...now showing slight eastward movement.
Showers and storms associated with this complex will approach and
eventually move onshore the west central coast late this
afternoon/early evening...then continue to track eastward across the
ECFL peninsula. Local model runs of the HRRR/WRF have pushed back
greater coverage/intensity of cells until late afternoon through mid
evening. It still appears there could be a couple of rounds for most
areas through this time.

Favorable signs for widespread precipitation later today include
PWAT's increasing to excess of 2 inches areawide, an ECSB moving
slowly inland from the east coast, aid from periodic mid-level
impulses traversing the area, and forecasted enhanced diffluence
aloft. A few storms will be strong to severe with main threats of
heavy rainfall, gusty winds up to around 50 mph, frequent lightning,
small hail, and possible isolated tornadoes. Flooding from slow-
moving or training cells with very localized heavy rainfall
possible. Storm motion will be towards the northeast at 15-20 mph
which will take many showers/storms over the intracoastal/near shore
Atlantic waters posing a marine concern.

Heaviest activity will diminish from mid to late evening from the
northwest to the southeast across ECFL. However, atmospheric
conditions remain such, with boundaries and deep moisture lingering,
that a small threat for showers/storms will remain possible almost
anywhere overnight. Conditions tonight remain mild/humid and min
temperatures will range from the U60s to L70s. S/SW winds will fall
to light this evening/overnight.

Wed-Wed night...Deep moisture remains entrenched across the region,
though some drying is forecast to move into the I-4 corridor
overnight Wed. It appears there could be a lull in the activity in
the morning...perhaps some isolated showers around with convection
increasing in coverage/intensity once again through the afternoon
and early evening. The ECSB will be a player over the eastern
peninsula as westerly storm motion carries cells back toward the
east coast late day/evening. Will carry likely pops (70pct) with
greatest chances obviously later in the day once again. Subtle
impulses embedded in the zonal flow aloft will be key, though it
looks like mid-level vorticity maxima will be weaker than on Tue.
Locally heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds will be the main storm
hazards. Considerable cloudiness is expected with high temps in the
mid to upper 80s, though if enough cloud cover hangs on and/or
earlier initiation of activity...these numbers could be too high.
Lows continued mild in the U60s/L70s.

Thu-Thu night...The GFS continues to initialize a little drier on
this day as PWAT values drop to more seasonal values. Still a SCHC
mention in the morning, but it will mainly be an afternoon/evening
show for convection as the ECSB develops and pushes inland. Storm
motion will be weaker but still favoring pushing cells eastward late
in the day. Zonal flow aloft continues, but no significant mid-level
impulses are currently forecast. Will advertise CHC POPS (40-50pct).
Highs a bit higher in the U80s to L90s. Lows still in the U60s to
L70s.

...Previous extended forecast discussion...

Friday...Low level flow is forecast to veer to the southeast with
increasing moisture again ahead of a shortwave trough that will move
north of the area Saturday. Expect a higher coverage of storms with
the inland moving east coast sea breeze across the interior in the
50-60 pct range. Coastal pops 30-40 pct Treasure Coast to 40-50 pct
nrn Brevard and Volusia counties.

Sat-Sun...500 mb shortwave trough will move from the TN valley
toward the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Increasing prefrontal moisture
and southerly flow Saturday will support shower/thunderstorm chances
in the 50-60 pct range mainly in the late morning through the
afternoon. The front will move into N FL Sunday afternoon with some
mid level drying beginning to move down across the northern FL
peninsula late in the day. Scattered showers and storms are forecast
Sunday with lower coverage as pops drop to 40-50 pct range. Highs
both days mainly in the upper 80s.

Mon-Tue...Closed low near the Mid-Atlantic will move slowly NE early
next week. A drier airmass is expected in the wake of a front that
will have moved through by late Sunday night. Rain chances will
lower to 20 pct range across the north Monday and 20 pct areawide on
Tue. Highs will be near climo in the mid 80s coast to upper 80s for
the interior early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...While activity has gotten off to a slower start than
forecast, all elements remain in place for widespread convection
later today/this evening. Expect widespread MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys
especially associated with moderate to heavy convection. Mainly
SERLY winds will gradually veer to S/SW and become light later this
evening and overnight. TAF sites may very well see a couple of
rounds of convection anytime from this afternoon through this
evening. Southwesterly storm motion will pile up storms across the
eastern peninsula late today/tonight. A SCHC threat for convection
continues overnight with enough elements/parameters in place but
things should settle down late this evening. Expect some thinning of
clouds overnight but with abundant LLVL moisture around there could
be some patchy ground fog/low stratus near sunrise Wed morning.

Another round of shra/tsra...mainly Wed afternoon as deep moisture
continues over the area and the ECSB will be active. SWRLY flow in
the morning becoming ESE/SE with development/inland movement of the
sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...Aftn-Tonight...SE/S winds will become SSW/SW tonight.
Moisture will continue to deepen over the area with increasing
shower/storm chances through the period. Storm motion will be
southwesterly with offshore moving convection especially in the
afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong with locally
higher winds/seas. Isolated waterspouts are a possibility. Seas 2-3
feet near shore and up to 3-4 ft over the open Atlc. Dominant pds
btwn 4-6sec.

...Previous extended marine forecast discussion...

Wed-Thu...Offshore flow Wed/Thu mornings will become onshore each
afternoon. Numerous storms Wed will become scattered for Thu with
seas 2-3 ft.

Thu night-Sun...E/SE flow Thu night into Fri will veer to southerly
by Saturday and strengthen some late in the week. Seas should build
to 2-4 ft near shore and 3-5 ft well offshore. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Greatest threat these next few days will likely be
scattered to numerous lightning storms with frequent lightning in
some storms which could aid in fresh fire starts. Dispersion indices
will be poor to fair.

&&

.CLIMATE...Three of four record warm lows remain in tact as of early
this afternoon, but that could change before midnight as expected
showers and storms roll through:

Record Warm Lows:

DAB 17-May 75 (1980)...76 this morning.
MCO 17-May 74 (1995)...73 this morning.
MLB 17-May 75 (1980)...77 this morning.
VRB 17-May 75 (2015)...77 this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  86  70  88 /  60  70  40  40
MCO  70  88  71  91 /  60  70  30  50
MLB  71  87  71  86 /  60  70  40  50
VRB  71  87  70  87 /  70  70  40  40
LEE  71  87  72  90 /  60  70  30  50
SFB  71  87  71  91 /  60  70  30  50
ORL  70  87  72  90 /  60  70  30  50
FPR  71  87  69  87 /  70  70  40  40

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Forecast Grids/Discussion...Sedlock
Radar/Aviation/Impact Weather...Cristaldi
Also Radar...Kelly/Ulrich
Public Service...Glitto

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-180000-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
925 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 MPH
THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN A 60
TO 90 MINUTE PERIOD, WHICH COULD CAUSE RAPID ONSET URBAN FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL NE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IF YOU SEE
THREATENING SKIES, OR HEAR THUNDER, HEAD INDOORS TO SAFETY.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS AS WELL AS FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MOVE OFF SHORE.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
IN ADDITION TO STRONG MARINE THUNDERSTORMS, AN INCREASINGLY MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG CLOUD BOUNDARIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH, THEN STALLS
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA,
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

BRAGAW/CRISTALDI

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