Areal Flood Warning 10, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
940 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

Current-Overnight...Major Hurricane Matthew is now around 130 miles
to the southwest of Melbourne. It's location is just northwest of
Grand Bahama. Rain bands have been persistent late this afternoon
and evening from southern Volusia, Seminole, NW Orange and EC Lake
counties. Radar estimates between 4 and 5 inches across portions of
north Seminole Cty.

The eye wall is still forecast to come very close to land and may
provide a glancing blow for portions of north Brevard/Volusia
counties. Matthew is approaching the coastal waters of the southern
Treasure coast, perhaps within 20 miles of Indian River County by
around midnight, then near the Cape near sunrise or just thereafter,
approaching/passing by Volusia County mid morning thru early
afternoon.

Winds will continue to increase drastically through this evening and
overnight areawide. Eyewall passage for virtually the entire coast
will produce wind speeds, surge values, and resultant
damage unprecedented for ECFL.

Extensive and devastating impacts expected along the coast overnight
into Fri afternoon. A Flood Watch continues in effect for all of
ECFL.

Rain bands (heavy/gusty squalls) will continue to increase in
intensity and coverage this evening and overnight. Occasional
lightning will also be possible. An isolated tornado threat will
also exist.

River Flood Warnings are in effect for the Little Wekiva
near Altamonte Springs, and the St. Johns River at Astor and Deland.

Specifics of the forecast threats for wind, flooding, rain, damaging
     winds/gusts, surge, high seas, and surf, are being handled in
     our HLS and threat graphics.

Fri-Fri Night...The latest official NHC forecast track and model
guidance show Major Hurricane Matthew near Cape Canaveral around
daybreak with center pushing north of the Volusia waters by mid-late
afternoon. Devastating impacts from this powerful hurricane...with
strong and damaging hurricane force winds, maximum storm surge of 9
to 11 feet (North Brevard/Volusia counties) and heavy rainfall
amounts of 6 to 8 inches...locally higher amounts of 8 to 12 inches
would result in flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...Persistent shower bands with isolated lightning
potential forecast thru the night and into Fri with approach/passage
of Major Hurricane Matthew across ECFL. Threats still occasional
lightning, torrential downpours, very gusty squalls, and/or isolated
tornadoes. Tempo LIFR/IFR cigs/vsbys with quick moving squalls.

For airport ops reference, here are the forecast times of onset of
TS and HURCN force winds (where applicable) for our aerodromes, in
order of times of onset (give or take an hour). Peak sustained winds
are included for inland airports that are not forecast to reach 64KT
sustained.

&&

.MARINE...Current-Overnight...Major Hurricane Matthew moving into
the offshore coastal waters of the southern Treasure Coast. Tropical
Storm/Hurricane force conditions will continue to advance from north
to south in association with this extremely dangerous storm. With
the rapidly deteriorating wind/sea conditions all small craft should
remain in port.

Friday...Major Hurricane Matthew Moving over local waters on Friday
with winds up to 100+kt and seas building above 40 ft in some areas.
All small craft should remain in port.

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for Coastal Volusia County-
     Indian River-Inland Volusia County-Martin-Northern Brevard
     County-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard
     County-St. Lucie.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal Volusia County-Indian River-Inland
     Volusia County-Martin-Northern Brevard County-Okeechobee-
     Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-St. Lucie.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Northern Lake County-Southern Lake
     County.

AM...Hurricane Warning for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County
     Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line
     20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

TEAM WFO Melbourne

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
450 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-071200-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
450 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR DETAILED INFORMATION REGARDING WEATHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW AS IT MAKES A CLOSE APPROACH ALONG OR NEAR
THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
IMPACTS FROM MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE TO REFER TO HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
FORMAL ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS WILL BE REQUIRED LATE
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR WILL BE
REPORTING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE LATER TODAY.

CRISTALDI

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