Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
302 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Showers and storms continue to fire to the west/southwest this
afternoon along the CAPE gradient. Forecast instability trends into
early evening along with mesoscale model simulated radar suggest the
best chance for storms will be in the south half of the forecast
area late afternoon into early evening. Storms do look possible
across the entire area though.

After the first round of storms winds down mid/late evening, there
could be a lull into the first part of the night. Activity should
pick up in the western forecast area later in the night as the
trough approaches from the west. Widespread showers and storms are
then expected Saturday as deepening low pressure lifts northeast
through southern Wisconsin. Should see this activity wind down west
to east during the late afternoon as best instability and deeper
moisture shift eastward with the departing low.

Due to the expected clouds and precip, kept temps close to a blend
of model 2 meter temps for tonight and tomorrow.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The upper level trof will scoot past the area Sunday, leaving
Wisconsin firmly within NW flow by midday on Sunday. Little to no
upper level divergence is evident in the guidance as the jet wraps
wound the base of the trof and moves through the area. At 500 mb,
the base of the trof moves from just west of WI at 00z Sunday to
Lake Michigan by 12z. This does bring a shot of DCVA in the late night
and early morning hours. Additionally, there appears to be a
subtle shortwave embedded on the back side of the trof that will
slide into WI around 00z Monday.

In the lower levels, the low pressure center over northern
Wisconsin/Lake MI at 00z Sun quickly moves off to the
northeast, taking much of the precipitation with it. Behind the
low, much of WI will be in in NW flow, with ample CAA through at
least 12z Sunday, before tapering off during the day. That CAA
will result in steep low level lapse rates throughout the day. In
terms of moisture, 700 mb should be mostly dry as soon as the low
moves off Sat night, but moisture appears to linger through much
of the day Sunday at 850 and 925. Given these moist lower levels,
steep low level lapse rates, and the embedded shortwave at 500 mb,
decided to keep slight chance of showers in the east through the
daytime hours on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

NW flow will dominate the upper levels before ridging moves over the
state on Tuesday. In the lower levels, high pressure will pass south
of the state on Monday, flipping winds around to the southwest.
There will be a relatively tight temperatures gradient along the
axis of the ridge extending north from the high, so we should start
to see some WAA by Monday afternoon. Additionally, much of the
guidance has got a slug of moisture riding along that ridge at
700mb, and the GFS is even painting some precip across northern
WI Mon night and Tues morning. Have left the precip out of this
time period given the GFS is the only model showing accums. SW
flow will continue into Tuesday, allowing warmer and more humid
conditions to build back into the region.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Beginning Tuesday night, another low pressure system will begin
to impact the region. A shortwave immediately upstream of the
upper level ridge will move in Tues night and Wed morning as the
low in the lower levels develops over the central plains. The low
will move towards Wisconsin, before passing the state some time on
Thurs. This will bring precipitation chances from Tuesday night
through at least Thursday. High pressure looks to take over by
Friday, which will translate into very nice weather for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Still seeing storm development to the west this afternoon and
expecting this to continue into late afternoon within the
instability gradient. Based on the current CAPE analysis and latest
mesoscale models, seems the best chance for storms late afternoon
into early evening will be in the southern half of the forecast
area.

Could see a lull in widespread activity from late evening into the
night, with showers/storms picking back up in the west later in the
night as the trough approaches. Showers and storms are then expected
across the forecast area on Saturday as the low and associated cold
front move through. The activity will likely wind down from west to
east later in the afternoon.

Lower ceilings and visibilities are probable at times through
tomorrow...mainly during the rounds of precip.

&&

.MARINE...

South to southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front will
become gusty by Saturday afternoon. West to northwest winds will
then remain gusty behind the cold front Saturday evening into Sunday
morning. Decided to issue a small craft advisory from early Saturday
afternoon to mid-morning on Sunday. Gusts to 25 knots are likely
through this period.

Waves will be highest Saturday afternoon and early evening in the
northern marine zones due to the southerly winds. The highest waves
will then be confined toward open waters for the remainder of the
advisory as winds become offshore.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 1 PM Saturday to 10 AM CDT Sunday for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/Saturday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday...BSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-202045-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY...BUT BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DEPENDING ON WHEN THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW. RAINFALL
REPORTS ARE ALSO APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-202045-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS OFF SHORE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

BSH
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
221 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE BARABOO           43.49N 89.72W
08/19/2016  M1.89 INCH       SAUK               WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 1 NE BARABOO /AR203/.

&&

SPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
222 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S MINERAL POINT       42.85N 90.18W
08/19/2016  M1.77 INCH       IOWA               WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MINERAL POINT /C6017/.

&&

SPM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
559 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

WIZ065-066-192330-
MILWAUKEE-WAUKESHA-
559 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MILWAUKEE AND WAUKESHA
COUNTIES...

AT 557 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WAUKESHA...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR
OCONOMOWOC AND NEAR MILWAUKEE.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILWAUKEE...WAUKESHA...WEST ALLIS...WAUWATOSA...NEW BERLIN...
BROOKFIELD...GREENFIELD...MENOMONEE FALLS...OAK CREEK...MUSKEGO...
SOUTH MILWAUKEE...CUDAHY...WHITEFISH BAY...GREENDALE...PEWAUKEE...
BROWN DEER...SUSSEX...ST.
FRANCIS...HARTLAND AND HALES CORNERS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4293 8785 4284 8832 4284 8842 4317 8851
      4319 8814 4319 8789 4316 8788 4312 8790
      4310 8787 4307 8787 4305 8789 4302 8790
      4296 8785
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 252DEG 18KT 4298 8829

SPM