Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
354 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast confidence high.

Low pressure over Lake Huron and the associated upper trough will
move across southern Ontario Canada Fri nt. A north to south ridge
of high pressure will follow the low over WI for the weekend with
an upper ridge slowly approaching from the Great Plains. Near
normal temps and humidity is forecast.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Current showers/storms will eventually clear the east by late
afternoon as this shortwave exits. It looks mainly dry then into the
evening. Could see a weakening area of storms move in from the west
late evening and early tonight as another shortwave moves trough.
Overall, have cut back on pops and precip amounts quite a bit for
this evening and overnight compared to previous forecasts. Given
lower confidence in widespread storms tonight, seems a lower chance
for severe storms as well. Current activity is not reaching severe
levels and storms tonight might arrive too late to pose much of a
severe threat. Will have to monitor upstream radar trends closely.

May see a lingering shower or storm early Friday morning, but
otherwise most places will likely be dry through the morning. Could
see a few showers in the north as cooler air approaches from the
north. Milder temps will hang on long enough for near normal highs
Friday. Dewpoints should be lower by afternoon though, which with a
westerly breeze will help it feel more comfortable.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...Forecast confidence medium.

An occluded low will track from MT into southern Canada for early
in the week with a series of shortwave troughs within the wswly
flow aloft to the south over the central Great Plains into WI.
This will bring very warm, humid, and unstable conditions to the
region with chances of showers and tstorms for Tue-Thu. A cold
front may pass for Wed nt-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Current showers/storms will eventually clear the east by late
afternoon as this shortwave exits. It looks mainly dry then into the
evening. Could see a weakening area of storms move in from the west
late evening and early tonight as another shortwave moves trough.
Should be mainly dry then Friday, aside from a few showers possible
in the north during the afternoon.

Most places are VFR this afternoon, though a few lower ceilings out
there. Winds go pretty light for a time this evening and into
tonight, so could deal with some more low clouds or fog. Could be a
higher fog threat near Lake Michigan given east winds and fairly
high dewpoints. Have seen some fog at times over the lake today.

Should see VFR across the area by mid-morning Friday as a drier
airmass moves in under westerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...

Fog is likely at times north of Port Washington into tonight, so
will keep the Dense Fog Advisory going. May have to expand the
advisory farther south. Conditions will improve late tonight into
Friday morning as winds become southwest to west.

Westerly winds Friday will approach Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Overall though, looks like gusts will max out at around 20 knots, so
will hold off on an advisory.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Friday for LMZ643.

&&

TONIGHT/Friday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday...Gehring

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-082115-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
403 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INCLUDING A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN DUE TO
THE HUMID CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-082115-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
403 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT WASHINGTON NORTHWARD.
A HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DENSE
FOG MAY EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOWARD MILWAUKEE AND WINTHROP HARBOR
ILLINOIS.

THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
449 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE RANDOM LAKE       43.55N 87.95W
07/07/2016  M1.17 INCH       SHEBOYGAN          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.17 INCHES FELL IN 30 MINUTES FROM 244 TO
            314 PM.

&&

SPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
501 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDEN                    43.69N 88.36W
07/07/2016                   FOND DU LAC        WI   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES DOWN. MINOR
            STREET FLOODING.

&&

SPM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
741 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

WIZ046-080100-
MARQUETTE-
741 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MARQUETTE COUNTY...

AT 740 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WESTFIELD...OR
14 MILES EAST OF FRIENDSHIP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTFIELD...LAWRENCE...NESHKORO AND SPRINGFIELD CORNERS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4397 8917 4388 8955 4395 8960 4398 8960
      4398 8917
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 240DEG 49KT 4396 8953

SPM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
800 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

WIZ046-047-080130-
GREEN LAKE-MARQUETTE-
800 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREEN LAKE AND NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTIES...

AT 757 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WESTFIELD...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAUTOMA. AN ADDITIONAL STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR GRAND MARSH. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BERLIN...WESTFIELD...PRINCETON...GREEN LAKE...NESHKORO...SPRINGFIELD
CORNERS AND HARRISVILLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4376 8897 4387 8954 4398 8951 4398 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 278DEG 30KT 4395 8942

SPM

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