Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
343 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence - Moderate.

The main focus concern continues to be on the convection coming
through this evening and whether there is a risk of severe weather
with it.  The 30.19z RAP soundings/analysis had to be modified
downward with both surface temps and dew points in the environment
ahead of the front, which leads to SBCAPE of around 300 J/kg near
the Dells and 600 J/kg of MUCAPE, which is not a lot. Winds do veer
with height, but there is little, if any, speed change with height
with mid level winds around 10-20kts. There does appear to be a
decent dry layer and inverted V sounding in place near the surface
ahead of the line, so I think that is why the main storm threats
along the Mississippi River has been to have some sub-severe
straightline winds around 30-45mph.  Not much in the way of hail
being reported, likely due to the weak levels of instability. So,
will be continuing with the thinking that the main hazards from the
storms tonight will be with brief heavy rainfall, lightning, and
gusty winds to around 40mph. The HRRR has been very consistent today
with the timing of the front coming through along with the
convection out ahead of it. The main band looks like it through be
exiting far southeast Wisconsin around or just before midnight.

After the cold front moves through, winds will swing around to the
north and are expected to become gusty to around 20-25mph,
particularly along Lake Michigan.  A low level cloud deck is
forecast to come through and linger into tomorrow morning as well,
but that should diminish in coverage tomorrow as a ridge of high
pressure pushes in from the west.

.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

High pressure slowly tracks southeast across the western Great lakes
region through the holiday weekend. 925 mb and 850mb temperatures
cool to around +9C and +13C respectively Friday night, and hold
through the morning Saturday, before beginning a slow warming
Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching short wave.

Expecting lows Friday night in the lower to middle 50s, with
temperatures a few degrees warmer along Lake Michigan. Highs
Saturday will reach the upper 70s, with a weak west wind flow
keeping the affects of a lake breeze confined to the lakeshore areas
later in the afternoon. Saturday night lows will be in the mid to
upper 50s.

.SUNDAY and SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

Short wave trough lifts the 850 MB baroclinic zone towards northern
Illinois but the boundary and the associated forcing stay to the
south, keeping precipitation out of southern Wisconsin.

High temperatures approach 80 degrees inland, though clouds will
keep the far south a few degrees cooler. A strengthening east-
southeast wind will hold lakeshore highs in the low to mid 70s.

Lows Sunday night will only dip into the upper 50s, with lower 60s
lakeside.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

The short wave trough and associated surface low are tracking even
farther south on the 12Z runs so the already low-confidence,
consensus slight chance PoPs in the far southeast for Monday may be
removed in later forecasts.  Main channel of short wave energy
remains to the north of the state in zonal flow keeping area dry
until Tuesday night through Wednesday when a southern short wave
crosses the region.

Warm, moist  advection in the southwest flow developing ahead of a
low-amplitude 500 mb wave dropping into the northern portions of the
inter-mountain west keeps small chance PoPs in the forecast for the
remainder of the period. Expect above normal temperatures and muggy
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

The main focus is with the period of showers and thunderstorms this
evening and the potential for brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
It appears that the storms will move through between 5pm to 11pm
from the northwest to the southeast this evening.  Some brief drops
to MVFR and possibly IFR are possible with some of the storms. Winds
shift around to the north behind the front and should become gusty
to 20kts for a period tonight, particularly along Lake Michigan.
Some MVFR ceilings are expected behind the front as well which could
last through much of tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory will be issued for tonight into early
tomorrow for gusty winds that will be developing behind a cold front
that moves through this evening.  Wind gusts of 25-30kts are
expected for a period later tonight into early Friday morning. Winds
will diminish quickly on Friday as a ridge of high pressure moves in
from the west.  Some gusty winds will be possible this evening as a
line of showers and thunderstorms move through ahead of the cold
front, mainly between 5-11pm this evening.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for LMZ643-644.

&&

TONIGHT/Friday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Halbach
Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday...REM

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